Financial topics

[aedens]

Cross posted for a friend from a discussion this morning. Iranians witnessed a dramatic 9.65% drop in the value of the rial, over the course of a single weekend (8-10 September 2012). The free-fall has continued since then. On 2 October 2012, the black-market exchange rate reached 35,000 IRR/USD – a rate which reflects a 65% decline in the rial, relative to the U.S. dollar. BTW consider ideology and faith have nothing in common. ht tyler

[aedens]

I would not leave any money on the table at the end of day.

Good advice I think. We got the September 26 turn as a low and now we'll see what early to mid October brings. Until then, I've been doing as you state.

Confirmation H : http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 613#p15613
Be carefull.... O summed up the vantages. John sees it also. "They see what's coming, and they're doing anything to "kick the can down the road," to delay the inevitable crisis, and to hope against hope that the economy will start growing again as it did in the bubble days."
As we noted back some time ago in proxy issues sideways is a good thing for now. It would be a bad idea to be nail right now as historical economics is a latent record as you can see know in my thought how the political economy pulled the nails and walked into the construct as linked above. Goes back to our discussion we had from Platos dialog to the Republic for those with an ear. "justice is the advantage of the stronger" Thrasymachus opined as we noted for well over 2500 cycles to avarice and hubris was a definition many forget of the consequences to it.

Bernanke's attempt to herd cats and to drive retail investors into equities is now a complete and unmitigated catastrophe. According to just released ICI data, in the week ended September 26, the second full week after the announcement of QE3, retail investors pulled $5.1 billion from domestic equity funds, following a massive $4.8 billion outflow the week prior, and the most in 2 months. This is also the sixth largest weekly outflow in 2012 to date, a year in which over $100 billion has already been pulled from equity mutual funds. As we noted some years ago I will continue to read those who seen this before these people drew breath on this planet. As we suspected on the confirmation phase noted "Equities entirely disengaged from risk-assets soon after the US equity open this morning and never looked back as Treasury yields pushed higher into the open and slid lower all day, the USD rose quietly all day long, and gold drifted sideways to modestly higher on the day." Live to fight another day Vin so the short term paper is covered from twist as we noted before Sept 14, 2012.

[aedens]

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... ters#p3829 Jul 28, 2009
History conveys: Syndicalism stays veiled from public discernment and will be rendered later for the purpose of Capital and Labor Responsibilities of systemic misnomers. The Austrian’s call it the master builder dilemma and I agree to what I found to be painfully true in any context to date. To many items we do not need from market “global” saturation points and the loss of core sanity hinging on energy petro dollars losses which will sponge out base monetary supports as we have seen given the markets true exchanges noted to date. Basically the vanilla investors have wised up and moved elsewhere from equity it appears as such.
Failed model to the ash heap of memory.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-0 ... redict-hyp

Consequences http://rick.bookstaber.com/2012/02/adam ... er-on.html
Rationalists claim that there are significant ways in which our concepts and knowledge are gained independently of sense experience. Empiricists claim that sense experience is the ultimate source of all our concepts and knowledge.

[Higgenbotham]

It would be a bad idea to be nail right now as historical economics is a latent record as you can see know in my thought how the politcal economy pulled the nails and walked into the construct as linked above.

What I see here is somewhat the inverse of the historical record. Had the free market played out, the market could be approximately at a Depression bottom now. That was also true in 2007 on many long term cycles. Short term, this looks somewhat like a repeat of October 2007 when DXY rose from 77.5 to near 79 from the first of October to mid month. Though this year DXY has been rising since September 14, the day after the QE3 announcement. Market behavior before and after economic releases is showing new patterns. I think this is a transition phase. I agree that those can be deceptive - and dangerous. I see a lot of people getting whipsawed. My self imposed rule now is not more than 10% of a regular position at any one time. At that level, I will carry overnight if there seems to be advantage in doing so, but not normally. If there's an advance that seems to fit into historical norms, I will increase that.

[aedens]

Free market is a percentage of macro parasites. Example is the word blest. It means two things to some. One, a way forward of knowing and
the ancient as in annihilated to recompense as only to remember. I feel Hayek as others are correct not to go there because the
concept to profane the reality as the Austrian's convey the construct to the bent of mind and logical fallacy. The Statist provide no leisure
since we study the ante view called economic history which is the actual guide. As forwarded the smartest men in the room
have again been proven wrong on the timeline we record. I do not discredit the view but did not construct esoteric math to preserve capital
and the anticipated forward semantics they hold and covet.

Lesson learned for some and x amount will never, ever understand it. Point being they will never stop trying...
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packa ... 98,00.html

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeas ... 47494.html Poof

She lost her house three years ago. "I couldn't afford to pay the taxes and I couldn't afford to rent anywhere," she tells me as she shows me a handful of black and white pictures of better days.
Mary, like too many in her generation, survives on charity and social welfare payments that aren't enough to provide her with a safe, secure place to live.
Taking a glimpse into the lives of those affected by poverty is important but ignoring them could be political folly.
http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/america ... l-election

[OLD1953]

A very scary time, especially for those of us over 55.

An FTC victory against the scareware distributors.

http://www.slashgear.com/ftc-slaps-scar ... -03250313/

Can't gripe over that.

An interesting model of behavior shows that you don't need to catch all the crooks, they just need to fear being caught, and their behavior reduces in proportion to that fear. This seems to model real life fairly well. Alas, I've lost my link to that research.

[aedens]

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... ist-france

France swirling into the orbit of the abyss faster than even they can think on high. They are starting a cycle that has sharp consequences it appears.
As I noted before we had tax sales that demolished the records locally. These bubble blowers are going to be sadly mistaken.
As warned Civilization cannot be put back into order by seizing political power or by attacking it, but by moving away from it, by diverting our focus from marbled temples and legislative halls to the conduct of our daily lives. And so we are not to live as those who have no hope.

[Higgenbotham]

Why did the Gallic reaper invented at that time only live till the fourth century of our era and then disappear from historical records? Why was not it widely used? Why was it forgotten? It could have changed the agriculture of Europe, the entire process of the European civilization evolution. Why ever didn't it happen? I continued my investigation which was similar to a detective story.

http://www.gnrtr.com/Generator.html?pi=208&cp=3

[Trevor]

Btw, what have you guys heard about what is going on in California?

Apparently a few of the refineries in the state are having problems. I don't know how long it's going to last, but our reserves are at a 10-year low and gas has gone up 30 cents just in the last few days. They'll hit the five dollar mark within a few days. I'm not sure how long it'll take to fix them, but a couple of weeks at least. Many gas stations throughout the country are closing down.

This should be a reminder of just how vulnerable our system is. If a relatively minor breakdown like this can hit us so profoundly, what'll happen once China makes their first strike, and I guarantee our refineries and pipelines will be prime targets.

[Reality Check]

Btw, what have you guys heard about what is going on in California?

Apparently a few of the refineries in the state are having problems. I don't know how long it's going to last, but our reserves are at a 10-year low and gas has gone up 30 cents just in the last few days. They'll hit the five dollar mark within a few days. I'm not sure how long it'll take to fix them, but a couple of weeks at least. Many gas stations throughout the country are closing down.

This should be a reminder of just how vulnerable our system is. If a relatively minor breakdown like this can hit us so profoundly, what'll happen once China makes their first strike, and I guarantee our refineries and pipelines will be prime targets.

I suspect this has more to do with U.S. government regulations and California state regulations than it does with U.S. wide infrastructure problems or U.S. wide market problems.

The requirement that California gasoline have a slightly different blend than anywhere else in the U.S., meaning gasoline can not be legally shipped in from other parts of the U.S., and;

The price spike is being caused by the temporary loss of two California refineries. Once caught fire in August and a power outage closed another this week. The state uses a special blend of fuel to cut down on the smog. Almost all of the blend is made in California.

"California is geographically isolated in the U.S.," said Robinson. "California has special fuels and so you have to be able to not only get fuel here but it has to meet our specifications."

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-5 ... alifornia/

The requirement that California use one blend of gasoline before October 31st each year, and allows a different blend after October 31st of each year, appear to be major factors that led to the gas crisis in California. California refineries start reducing production and storage of the more expensive summer blends to ensure they are not stuck with summer blend after switching to selling cheaper winter blends after October 31st.

At the same time, California refineries have dropped production in recent weeks in anticipation of switching over to a "winter blend" of gasoline, which emits more pollutants, next month.

But California's summer-blend fuel requirements are in effect in Southern California until Oct. 31.

http://www.ktla.com/news/landing/ktla-5 ... 7362.story

A form of relief might come if the state's refineries are allowed to switch to the cheaper winter blend of gasoline in the next few days rather than having to wait until the end of October, he said.

[Updated] California facing new record high for gasoline prices

"The California Energy Commission received a request for that from the California Independent Oil Marketers Assn.," Van der Valk said. "However, Southern California is currently enduring a heat wave, and air quality will be given primary consideration before any final decision is made."

The summer blend is designed to reduce evaporation of pollutants during warm weather.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-g ... %2522%257D

http://www.ft86club.com/forums/showthread.php?p=479614

By canceling regulations that prevent a single blend of gasoline being used in the entire United States year round this kind of crisis could be solved in a matter of weeks. For that reason the California gas crisis does not appear to be a structural problem with the U.S. economy.