Financial topics

[aeden]

https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/case-file
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9r-NxuYszg

[aeden]

book4 open
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29GJxkW-hKI
help the help less only
serve the poor who need it only
remember who made you that is all
8 track and you had it made
widows and orphans as the rest are not my concern

SEC is unable to function as we seen since the swaps got unbalanced so we suggested fair trade
and stop chopping up humans and making us pay blood money. Now they do it and sew part on rodents.
Hell awaits these demons we note.

Not much in the brain pan allowing synthetic lies.
https://cryptobriefing.com/sec-disagree ... -security/
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fake- ... -exchanges

[John]

** 08-Jul-2021 World View: Higgie

I wonder how Higgie is doing? Whenever we don't hear from him for a
while, especially the way the market has been going up until today, I
always worry that he bet the farm on shorts and got wiped out.

[Higgenbotham]

** 08-Jul-2021 World View: Higgie

I wonder how Higgie is doing? Whenever we don't hear from him for a
while, especially the way the market has been going up until today, I
always worry that he bet the farm on shorts and got wiped out.

Here is my last post on Maximum Ruin. The S&P hadn't moved up much from there, so I didn't do another update.

I'm still looking for a top in the stock market and am about 129% short.

I'll try to post a Maximum Ruin update today.

I didn't get around to posting a Maximum Ruin update the other day. Today seems like a good day to do it as the stock market went higher all day as it continued to attempt to ruin the few shorts that are left. Once it ruins all those shorts, then it can destroy the public who bought in near the top of the market these past few months. I remain 129% short. Before going short, I had posted that my account was up about 8% on the year. Now it's only up about 2%. The bumpy downward curve shown is account value from the time I went short.

I'm still 129% short and as of now my account is still up 2% on the year. Sorry, not up 2% on the year, up 2% today. It's down 0.34% on the year as of now.

[Higgenbotham]

Powell and the rest of The 97th Percentile at the Fed will need to drive the stock market much, much higher before they kill me. Can they do it? They may die trying.

http://www.gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?keywords=97th

Keyword 97th Percentile

[vincecate]

Powell and the rest of The 97th Percentile at the Fed will need to drive the stock market much, much higher before they kill me. Can they do it? They may die trying.

The president of Haiti was just assassinated, probably in part for destroying the country. If I am right about the Fed creating hyperinflation, I would not want to be Powell. If you tell investors that inflation is transitory, and they invest believing that, and it turns out we get hyperinflation, some investors may be really pissed.

[Higgenbotham]

The Fed will break the supply chains.

Transitory inflation is another way of saying they hope the supply chains will mend themselves and everything will revert back to a permanent condition of stability. That won't happen because the money printing is causing the instability.

Once the supply chains break, Washington DC and New York City, etc., won't be the places to be.

PS Watch the Transports.

[Higgenbotham]

I haven't been reading any of this lately, but here it is. This is wishful thinking in my opinion. But they may be able to keep it going awhile longer. Nobody really knows.

A glance of the latest news shows there is a lot of discussion on the topic of supply chains. I saw something about a Biden Administration Executive Order 14017 to address the current supply chain issues.

This will all be too little, too late in my opinion. The groundwork establishing the certainty (in my opinion) of the supply chain collapse that is coming was laid in 2011 and I discussed the basis for the problems we are starting to see at that time. It starts with the cost structure in the US being too high, and printing money has only made that worse. In my opinion, there is no way the Fed can print money to get over the speed bump of supply chain vulnerabilities only to dial the money printing back if inflation is not transitory. This ship sailed a long time ago.

Fed's Quarles says supply chain imbalances boosting inflation are transitory


June 28, 2021·1 min read

(Reuters) - The supply chain imbalances and higher demand currently leading to higher inflation are transitory and the U.S. Federal Reserve has the tools to respond if inflation remains elevated for longer than anticipated, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles said on Monday.

"If a year from now we were not to see inflation settling back down to something that's closer to our 2% target ... we have the tools at the Fed to then begin - as we traditionally would - to increase interest rates, to change our monetary policy in a way that would address that inflation," Quarles said during the annual Utah Bankers Association Convention. "We're not behind the curve."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-qua ... 39724.html

[Higgenbotham]

Another aspect of Maximum Ruin has been the need to conserve cash in ways that most Americans currently do not need to, but probably will need to in the future. Right now I'm driving a 20 year old car and doing all the repairs myself. A few days ago the brake lights came on when the car was parked at the grocery store and, at the same time, the check engine light had to be fixed before the car could pass inspection and the registration could be renewed. I did the repairs myself for a cost of somewhere around $11. Hopefully, the stock market will crash or at least go down 10% or so before any expensive repairs are necessary.

I've been considering a vehicle that can withstand EMP. Whether it's solar or man made, it would be practical. But there's not many options. Something with towing capacity, 4wd, and ready to go.
What're we going to do with our "money" before the banks bail in our "deposits". It would be nice to think crypto or gold could save us but they're insurance at best. Keep a wad of paper FRN's and then what when cash is made "illegal" or whatnot?

I meant to answer this when it was posted, as what I posted generated a few responses.

My strategy as far as a vehicle goes is to keep one running while everything is still running (business as usual). When the system breaks, driving around in a vehicle when nobody else has one to drive could make someone a target. I don't expect to have a solar powered vehicle or a vehicle that can withstand an EMP attack. That might be OK in certain situations like Vince's particular situation where his area is self-contained and small. My particular plan in a situation like a post EMP attack that really does disable everything electronic would be to lay low and try to survive until the first wave of fatalities bottoms out and the survivors emerge to work together to stabilize things. That might take anywhere from 6-18 months I would guess.

EMP attack or not, once supply chains collapse, I don't think money or assets will be of much use. They will only be of use until business as usual ends, which I expect to be soon.

[aeden]

spxcarnage - not yet - soon - testing ma
trannys - caution - rope burn h is past correct on headwind.
tlt - yes until trend shattered not broken.
H will swing trade as 50ma blows up 25 ma blows up 12 ma blows up and intra daily short ma blow up
Banks will and are to slaughter credit cards lines to survive.
Repo tbill
gamma - of course
vega will be self evident

fed - chin - pound - coin or any blows up all banks and way over 40 million finance workers slaughtered.

Armageddon since one kernal rule them all Hampton hookers and blow banks collapse totally.

Falling knives as they mock people of the book and letter.

Disinflation you are warned again.

Also I trade nothing under the 100 ma

20%, 20%, 20%, 5% beats 30%, 30%, 30%, -20%
15%, 15%, 15%, 5% beats 25%, 25%, 25%, -20%
20%, 10%, 5%, 5% beats 30%, 20%, 15%, -20%
5%, 5%, 5%, 5% ties 15%, 15%, 15%, -20%

You can easily prove to yourself that even for a six-year market cycle.
Also utilize the scroll function on your mouse for preset sweeps.

The point of this isn't that investors should always take a defensive stance -- some market conditions are associated with very strong return/risk profiles that warrant substantial exposure to market fluctuations. The point is that the avoidance of significant losses is generally worth accepting even long periods of defensiveness. Because of the mathematics of compounding, large losses have a disproportionate effect on cumulative returns.
hussman 2007

thread: velvit rope, wasting