Financial topics

[aedens]

http://bloom.bg/UZszvk Much noise on this generational hand off.
fundamentals haven't mattered in years h/t t
We seen this call already. ---> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-1 ... rket-looks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbuLuHsxxlM

They will eat you too. If you let them. They will not just eat their own.
Yea, It is getting easy to spot even on lame stream press now. Yes they are a brazen lot. I was watching the Vet who conveyed a letter to the Senate and the vitriolic comments to him. This hinges on the teachable moment effect in the information age we noted when Green Mountain College was under attack
for a Community decision that was totaly correct. It made them note the lunatic fringe effect in the information age and the subtle enclaves forming. Same is happening around us a lovely coupled was butchered in Grand Rapids a few days ago. As the Vet stated, and we feel around here also no you will not get our weapons. We have the most inept society and corupted. These people in the Beltway politics do not represent us at all. The majority has lost its collective mind. Leave us be to survive all these idiots armed in our very homes and hearth.
http://photos.mlive.com/grandrapidspres ... vigil.html I will not surrender my rights to protect my family.

[Higgenbotham]

There was another mini panic in the futures this afternoon after the cash close and I exited 75% shorts and went 5% long. I have to bet some kind of "deal" or promise of a "deal" gets cobbled together over the weekend or early next week and the market will rally for about 3 days on that. If that happens I will probably reverse to 100% short at that time. There is no reason for me to disbelieve there can't be some carry over towards your target in this bizarre carnival that has no modern historical context.

The S&P futures are up about 35 points from the panic low on Friday. Not sure this "deal" is worth any more than that, so I went back to 75% short.

Whoops, the S&P futures closed the week up 75 points from the panic low on Friday. I'm planning to move to 100% short and maybe more next week.

The above are old posts from the past 2 weeks. What a difference 2 weeks makes.

The S&P futures closed the week up 85 points from the panic low 2 Fridays ago and at a new multi year closing high. I'm 100% short as of the close.

It seems obvious that something "unexpected" will have to go wrong to pop this bubble. Either that or profits, which the Fed cannot control so easily, will have to start disappointing investors. So shorting, even at these high prices, is not low risk in my opinion, though lower risk than it was 85 points ago.

[OLD1953]

I've noted a certain shift in thinking recently, items that would have driven the market up a few years ago are now having no effect or actually pushing it down. Since US political movement follows the DJIA much more closely than it does the actual economy, a serious (15-20%) drop in the DOW would cause some action on that front, though what it would be I've no idea.

[aedens]

http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... ull#ref-28

POMO recycle and PD has induced confusion as they worship and forward technicals as we have seen and listed before. They will wish to adhere and cleve to the January effect but we know better. I was expecting a exhaustion drift on my part alone and the basket offsets have kept me up and beyond even to date on acount (a) and no we never abandoned counts or other indicators on (b) either. The Market will speak when it is ready and I will just have to acept a lower beta risk ladder for now. The when, or if actual traction commences from the vaunted transitory they press who knows since you have seen the transition we noted. As we know from the last massacre when consolidations and mergers ended the actual value at the margin merged into the nightmare we have witnessed in timeless cycles that was created for the induced cartels. FDR made it plain clear no accidents just intent. If you think blue or red you are an idiot. http://reformed-theology.org/html/books ... index.html

Evidence from public opinion polls and corporate bond markets shows that FDR’s policies prevented a robust recovery of long-term private investment by significantly reducing investors’ confidence in the durability of private property rights. Not until the New Deal/war economy ended and resources became available for peacetime production did private investment—and the nation’s economic health—fully recover. I plan on this caution as before since fact is
due diligence. The Carlyle Group Purchases 55% Stake in Commodities Investment Manager Vermillion Asset Management and they said you are this, and that when we seen the kill switches. http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/108 ... r?page=0,1
We posted well and way over 20,000 workers decimated to seal that vein for PAC. The 2012 election Price Tag was $8 Billion, assholes as people starve.
Now the election is over and they got the memo that the power cord you plugged in the wall is still coal fired so they relaxed on the coal or the nation goes black out. Also, Karzi is the thought on them to wait for so long since our back teeth have been floating Washington on getting our people home who
served. You did not honor us, or them for the time you insisted as needed and ours fullfilled there service and listened to the elders and have retired.
Rubbish on your team. http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... ain#p16628
Keynes also made the following clear and unequivocal declarations:
I believe the future lies with,
1.State trading for commodities;
2.International cartels for necessary manufactures; and
3.Quantitive import restrictions for nonessential manufactures.
Yet all these future instrumentalities for orderly economic life in the future you seek to outlaw.
Everybody know's what is going on. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbuLuHsxxlM
port side view today
Reference: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=cost+of+2012+ ... n+campaign
Reference: Pluralism was never Jung's (or Freud's) strong suit. Bair occasionally goes too far, as when she insists that the man -- so canny and manipulative in every other dimension of his life -- was naïve in his dealings with the Nazis. In this respect, Jung's case resembles that of another charismatic intellectual, the philosopher Martin Heidegger, who was much more of a collaborator than Jung. These ambitious men were not naïve; they were overconfident about their ability to manipulate the Nazis and were hopelessly outplayed. The Hegelian dialectic as forwarded in the forums is the framework for guiding our thoughts and actions into conflicts that lead us to a predetermined solution. If we do not understand how the Hegelian dialectic shapes our perceptions of the world, then we do not know how we are helping to implement the vision. When we remain locked into dialectical thinking, we cannot see out of the box. Hegel's dialectic is the tool which manipulates us into a frenzied circular pattern of thought and action. Every time we fight for or defend against an ideology we are playing a necessary role in Marx and Engels' grand design to advance humanity into a dictatorship. If you properly discern Sismondi’s Nouveaux principes d’ economie politique you will see influence by both Smith and Rousseau and Marx who included it into his work and the Political reality. It will fail since darkness can never exist in the light.

[gerald]

buying beer with a stack of cash, May 2011, Belarus

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-1 ... r-bag-cash


from-

defender

Just looked up the exchange rate for Bellarus and it shows 8,660 rubles to 1 USD. You can see several 10 ruble stacks in the video, so it would be like paying for the beer with 1/100th cent coupons.

I am kinda starting to feel sorry for the check-out girl.

[Higgenbotham]

In a post to jcsok a few weeks back I mentioned cycle decay in the stock market. I'll also show how I think that fits in with the flutter (down crashes and up crashes that have been seen lately).

On the following dates the stock market made highs:

5/02/2011
4/02/2012 (336 days later)
9/14/2012 (165 days later)
12/3/2012 (80 days later)
1/11/2013 (39 days later)

165/336 = 0.491, 80/165 = 0.485, 39/80 = 0.488.

The decay ratio of this series is approximately 0.49.

Looking at the chart, December 3 was the highest point from the November 16 low. After that, the stock market began to crash more violently, both up and down, making lower lows and higher highs. Generally, the stock market is not able to sustain new high points all the way to the end (limit) of the series, which gets me to the next subject. Also, I'll need to review some of the previous long term timing posts where the 25, 50 and 75 year inversions were mentioned.

[Higgenbotham]

Next subject will be to talk about January 11, 2013 and what that is, as related to stock market history.

On January 11, 1973, the stock market made an all time high, exactly 40 years ago yesterday. That high held for 10 years.

On August 15, 1971, Nixon slammed the gold window shut. Almost 40 years after that, the debt ceiling debate ensued, the US debt was downgraded and the stock market crashed 6 days in front of the 40 year anniversary of that date.

I think there could have been a similar outcome had the fiscal cliff negotiations gone bad. Instead, it has been delayed.

There was a new all time high in the Dow on January 14, 2000, exactly 13 years from this coming Monday.

Now comes the tricky one. The stock market made its last all time high on October 11, 2007. This was exactly 21 quarters from yesterday. Also, recent highs and lows in the stock market have matched with highs and lows 21 quarters ago. They are listed below.

July 19, 2007 and October 19, 2012 -- Highs
August 16, 2007 and November 16, 2012 -- Lows

[Higgenbotham]

Back to the earlier timing posts.

The first had to do with the fact that the key stock markets lows of the Great Depression era were July 8, 1932 and June 13, 1942. It was noted that the time between those dates corresponded exactly with the time between the key stock market low of October 9, 2002 and the recent rebound high of September 14, 2012.

It so happens that the S&P 500 and most of the other stock market indexes are still below the September 14 intraday high level but the S&P 500 has closed above the high close made that day. Also, it has accomplished that into a key historical time frame as mentioned above.

The second timing post had to do with the fact that cycle lows from 25, 50, and 75 years ago had inverted into 2007 and 2012 and made highs. In 2007, the time delay was averaged to 50 years and 5 days. The corrresponding 2012 time delay is now 50 years and 10 days.

[Higgenbotham]

I think the 3 previous posts pretty well summarize where things are in the stock market from a mechanistic standpoint. The cycles are what they are and in following them it has been shown to me that the Fed can move around them a bit, always with the negative consequences of greater long term pain and disorder.

It's interesting to see what various people conclude that means beyond those facts. Many believe the end result will be hyperinflation and many believe that technology will save the day. I believe I stand virtually alone in drawing the conclusion that these policies will plunge the world into a new dark age.

Reading the consequences of these policies to small business posted by a, I was reminded of a quote attributed to those in 16th Century Spain who said, "Those who can will not, while those who will can not." At present, "those who can will not" because those who can are those who are close to the electronic printed money. If you have unlimited access to electronic printed money, no innovation is needed, no efficiency is needed. "Those who will can not" because those who will are the small businessmen and entrepreneurs who have no direct access to electronic printed money and are starving to death on the crumbs. With no access to electronic printed money, no innovation is possible, and the cost structure is too high to support it anyway. Hence, capital expenditure grinds down toward zero, as we are seeing.

The closest guess I can make continues to be that the Fed and US government policy will result in the stock market going to zero with a complete collapse of the US economy within 5 years (notice Bernake is retiring next year).

We seen this call already. ---> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-1 ... rket-looks

Now we'll see if $85 billion per month is enough. We know Bernake is starving the real economy to death, and the gain, if any, could be very short term. If the decay ratio continues to hold, the gain might only last a few more days. China may take advantage of that and decide to launch a financial attack, as mentioned in the news thread.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... ash/print/

"However, by using the combination method, a completely different scenario and game can occur: if the attacking side secretly musters large amounts of capital without the enemy nation being aware of this at all and launches a sneak attack against its financial markets, then after causing a financial crisis, buries a computer virus and hacker detachment in the opponent's computer system in advance, while at the same time carrying out a network attack against the enemy so that the civilian electricity network, traffic dispatching network, financial transaction network, telephone communications network, and mass media network are completely paralyzed, this will cause the enemy nation to fall into social panic, street riots, and a political crisis."

http://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf
From Unrestricted Warfare, p. 145.

The main difference I see between this looting episode and that of the 14th century is that there's a strong affected Asian power that in all likelihood will call a halt to the looting by means of unrestricted warfare. Washington and New York have at this point adequately demonstrated that they cannot control their impulse to loot the world by means electronic printed money, even when it means looting and destroying the people under their political control.

[aedens]

I would consider this a mirror of 1931 and 1932 whan both parties fought on which taxes to raise since truly
the mental construct is barren today. Hoover was charged with two economics sins which today we can attribute
to basic political 098 labeling. http://www.hooverassociation.org/hoover ... hapter.php

He won michigan as a democrat even tho a week earlier he went republican.
You may as well discuss quanton tunneling than any discussion with either party today.

I think we are closer H to what others are starting to see... The comment those who can and cannot is the seal in the forehead mentioned.

I understand that context it was written in and when the digital currency takes hold the drug cartels cannot utilize a back door
since then it points directly to the Governement. Then it goes to the maxims we have conveyed from numerous sources.