Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

You got me as to why the market went up today with rates up big across the board.
Equities' Reaction To Fed Policy

CME Group
March 25, 2022 5:49am
The equity market’s rally and high valuation levels cannot be attributed to its optimistic outlook for corporate earnings or cashflows. S&P 500® Annual Dividend Index Futures reveal that investors expect only 1% annualized growth in dividends per year over the next decade in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, investors see the real value of the dividends falling by around 2% per year (Figure 4). Yet, despite this rather gloomy scenario, the S&P 500® is within about 5% of the record high. Viewing the S&P 500 market cap as a percentage of GDP, the index remains close to all time highs (Figure 5).

So given the rise in inflation, the expected slow growth in dividends, and expectations for a sharp tightening of Fed policy, why are investors still willing to pay relatively high prices to own shares? Part of the reason may lie in the extraordinarily flatness of the yield curve beyond the three-year point. While 3M3Y has around 200bps of steepness, reflecting the anticipation of tighter Fed policy, 3Y10Y is almost perfectly flat. 10Y30Y has around 20bps of steepness. Equity markets often show more sensitivity to long-term rates than short-term ones. There are two reasons for this:

Long-term bonds are the primary alternative to equities for most institutional (and many individual) investors, and low long-term yields make for unattractive investments.

Models of corporate valuation often use long-term interest rates to discount future earnings and, the lower long-term bond yields, the greater the net present value of future cash flows.

As such, the flat yield curve beyond the three-year point may be shielding equity investors from a potential deeper sell off, at least for now. But there are risks. First, long-term bond yields have begun to edge higher (Figure 6). Moreover, Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed wants to contain inflation without causing a recession. That might sound good for equity investors but consider this: one way to avoid causing a recession could be to make sure that the yield curve does not invert as the Fed raises rates. In order to prevent a yield curve inversion, the Fed might reduce its holdings of longer term bonds, accumulated during the recent $4.8 trillion bout of quantitative easing (QE), in order to push bond yields higher as it raises short-term rates. As such, long-term bond yields might rise as the Fed reverses QE which the Fed has indicated likely to begin in May.

There is very little evidence that QE impacts the rate of GDP growth or inflation. Three rounds of QE in the U.S. between 2009 and 2014 had very little impact on either. Even larger rounds of QE in the eurozone and Japan appeared to have little impact on their economies either. What differentiated the most recent QE was that it was done in combination with an unprecedented peacetime fiscal expansion that took Federal spending from 21% of GDP in the year to February 2020, to 35% of GDP in the year to March 2021.

There is abundant evidence, however, that QE tends to flatten yield curves and boost asset prices ranging from real estate to equities. As such, reversing QE might push long-term bond yields higher to the possible detriment of equities even as higher short-term interest rates potentially slow economic growth and help to contain inflation expectations. Finally, there is the possibility that tighter monetary policy triggers an economic downturn which could cause corporate earnings to fall. As such, the equity market, which has resisted higher inflation and the prospect of Fed tightening well so far, might not be out of the woods yet.
https://www.benzinga.com/economics/22/0 ... fed-policy
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
Posts: 11501
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 25-Mar-2022 World View: Have another cup o' coffee
Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Mar 25, 2022 5:32 pm > You got me as to why the market went up today with rates up big
> across the board.
It's pretty clear that investors are totally delusional today. But
most investors are driven by brokers and people who only make money
when people buy, buy, buy. You often quote Upton Sinclair, who said,
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary
depends upon his not understanding it." Well, the salaries of most
brokers and money managers depend on not understanding that stocks are
way overpriced.

There hasn't been a major stock market panic since 1987 (58 years
after 1929), and in 1987 stocks were cheap with a low P/E ratio.
Stocks prices recovered within a few months. Investors today consider
1987 to be ancient history that proves, if anything, that no panic is
likely, and even if one occurs, it will not be serious. As for the
1929-1933 panic and crash, that's just an artifact of ancient history,
like the building of the Egyptian pyramids.

As you point out, the financial markets are showing all the signs of
stocks being way overpriced. When a panic occurs, it will be entirely
unexpected. Stocks are expensive, with a high P/E ratio, so it will
be more like 1929-1933, when stock prices fell 90%, and didn't recover
for decades. At some point, the investors will have to give up their
delusions.

1932 HITS ARCHIVE: Let’s Have Another Cup O' Coffee
Fred Waring (v/Chick Bullock & 3 Waring Girls)



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8kGjrjAKt4
Cool Breeze
Posts: 3040
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

I'm on record for what I'm doing and what I think will happen. My thesis has been spot on (long commodities, energy, oil/uranium and BTC) and that has been because I got the inflation macro call spot on.

Also, it got real quiet regarding BTC in the last 5 days, lol, see how that works? The guest trolls all of a sudden realized they can't taunt the guy who actually knows what's going on. So choice.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Furthermore, with debt/GDP ratios reaching new record highs, it would not take much of a shock to growth or interest rates for the debt ratio to balloon and spark concerns about debt sustainability. Hence high existing debt levels mean fiscal policy is vulnerable to even transitory interest rate spikes. Such a surge in rates could damage the fiscal policy space. This could arise from a so-called sudden stop: a temporary drying up of liquidity due to concerns about debt sustainability or losing reserve currency status.
https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/lit ... t-2019.pdf

This is confirmation that the powers that be have documented concerns about the fact that not much of a shock to interest rates could result in a sudden stop. This was written in August 2019 and rates have surpassed their August 2019 levels, but not by much. Meanwhile, though, debt is quite a bit higher.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aeden
Posts: 13974
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

As long as the democrats attack the fuel infrastructure and are point blank people will starve and die.
The mandatory exports is well underway and thousands of products cannot be produced either from it.
They will let them die and are. The sheep are sealed in slaughter conscript pens also now.
We have not and do not need to restock into the september window. By then try to think what will not double or worse.
The demshevik Biden slaves will be to late understand and even fathom slow then all at once...
Deficit energy platforms have been trended here since 2012 as lightswitch.
Just because you never read life boat ethics does not mean you are not the target.
Still they mock us as out there as they worship a side. Both wings are utter rot filth.

Aug. 24, 2012 "Governments are too late to make the decisions that 10 years ago would have saved the world from a mid-sized depression
followed by significant inflation." spano

Joel 1:4 as like the judgments of God are linked together by an invisible chain, each drawing on the other;
yet, at each link of the lengthening chain, allowing space and time for repentance to break it through.

You thesis means nothing and your over a decade behind anyways on one point and since 1963 drowning in socialist Alinsky filth on just one front.

“Qu’ils mangent de la brioche”. English as “Let them eat brioche” a sweet French breakfast bread.

Furthermore, there is no anecdotal, nor historical evidence from the time that Marie Antoinette ever uttered those words.
In fact, it was probably a rumour started as a way of further decreasing her popularity among the general population.
The first recording of Marie Antoinette in relation to the phrase did not occur until 50 years after her death.

All you have now is lie cheat steal burn loot murder fiat debt cults since it controls all conflicts.
Appropriation has a price. Its here in plain site on point. Looting.
Cui Bono is simple to see as you fools worship fools who cannot or will even define female.
As it was pointed out why are the socialist and communists not running to the banner.
We can only hope the democrats are are wiped clean in mid terms it was said.
To late as both are contemtable deception of rot more than few already know.
Stay tuned as the fly overS take in the uniparty a$$ over and over and over in the death cult.

Administration is advising everyone to add more water to their instant ramen so they can feel more full.
Press Secretary Jen Psaki briefed the press this morning on the Biden administration's official position. "It's really simple,"

Yes abject idiots are Democrats following as demented brain damaged andrenocromes with Captain Oatmeals brain surgerys.
Its called brain damage.

https://www.rs21.org.uk/2021/01/13/let- ... y-britain/

Let then eat watery noddles. White House. March 10th, 2022
Last edited by aeden on Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:48 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4200
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Tom Mazanec »

A Global Liquidity Crisis with Massive Food Shortages Is Coming Warns Jim Rickards
135,656 viewsMar 25, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZwjMAs4WbQ
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Tom Mazanec wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:40 am A Global Liquidity Crisis with Massive Food Shortages Is Coming Warns Jim Rickards
135,656 viewsMar 25, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZwjMAs4WbQ
https://youtu.be/AZwjMAs4WbQ?t=1805

30:05

"But I can say that we're uncomfortably close. Now we've been there twice before in recent years. 1998 we came within hours of shutting every market in the world...Same thing in 2008...People don't realize that Morgan Stanley was days away from failing, Goldman Sachs was days away from failing...But here's my point: Each bailout gets bigger than the one before, each crisis is more dangerous than the one before..we're going get to a point and we may be there where the crisis is bigger than the Fed, bigger than the Fed's ability to stop."

https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg ... d=33774332 You got me.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
aeden
Posts: 13974
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

1,058,500 calories per year person.
Americans are still clueless brain dead sheep.
https://www.iceagefarmer.com/

Food supply take over will acelerate from feckless lie cheat steal swamp idiots.

Bio soil wipe outs. The mid chemical farmers are now wiped out and gone as reported

They wiped them out with forever poisons now to be esg slaves and yes thats why they did it.

Still they mock us in a protein survival quest. The same scam being used to finish off the rest.

They are at war on YOU.
Last edited by aeden on Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
aeden
Posts: 13974
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ab-funding
.
.. the Times story applies the final dollop of clown makeup to Wolf Blitzer, Lesley Stahl, Christiane Amanpour, Brian Stelter, and countless other hapless media stooges... traitors

https://www.bitchute.com/video/5NXWqocNxRdf/ Here you go Captain Oatmeal.

Jesus these Americans are just too stupid.

blood samples and everything else DTRA project UP-8 Ukrainian documents
https://web.archive.org/web/20220309210 ... 20UP-8.pdf

CBEP program
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226210 ... _Final.pdf

Proof the DTRA have project in Ukraine
https://web.archive.org/web/20180203230 ... 18-064.PDF
https://web.archive.org/web/20161019022 ... elease.pdf
https://web.archive.org/web/20161228044 ... 23-131.pdf

Statement of Mr. Kenneth A. Myers III Director DTRA
https://web.archive.org/web/20161228044 ... 23-131.pdf

3 viruses have only been studied by the DTRA, only russian.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/CP006792
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/KY484030
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MLJX00000000
https://archive. ph/1sd7F <- Georgia anthrax ncbi

https://web.archive.org/web/20220309072 ... titles.pdf <- DTRA projects list
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226090 ... /95251.pdf <- US and Ukraine agreement pathogen prevention
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226090 ... pt2015.pdf <- DTRA Synthetic biology research and funding
aeden
Posts: 13974
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

The U.S. economy has entered the death zone…where higher and higher interest rates will be needed for years to come to counter raging consumer price inflation. The credit market reversal has only just begun.
https://economicprism.com/welcome-to-the-death-zone/
Conversely, debt driven financial assets like bonds and houses will deflate. And home equity will be ravaged in kind.

Still, it’s not all bad. According to Gross, being in the death zone “allows you to be more happy in the moment.”

As we are the esg nudge push shove shoot cult need mic sprinkes since the vasucular disease cult has run aground.
They are not making monoclonal antibodies that in probability saved my Wifes life.
As warned YOU are on your own now. This swamp disease will lie cheat steal burn loot murder with inpunity.
As warned data frgilty is a business model. They adjusted the models for the vascular disease slaughter.
The DOJ is also a body farm rotted corpse.
These legal things cannot and will not even define female. Active measures.
Democrats are insane minus one hand count.
A. Taxpayer
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