Financial topics

[aedens]

Yep, stuff on fire all over like the old days. Analysis paralysis can occur with many decisions, including investment
decisions such as buying or selling securities and chewing gum watching TV. Those damn taxpayers are just to stiff to
buy into a record bull rally and the Democrats will save us all by raising mimimum wage. Those other people will get to keep there
plans and he would bend the trend. But I have not seen any of the other financial prediction on this board come true. woof

feb 5 23.21 - today 26.46 gdx Gold
feb 5 34.71 - today 36.66 dno Oil

We forwarded this as the Noske moment. What I mean is as you provided its up the food chain rather high now.
On the other hand they will comprise a normalcy bias as the economy shifted from the seven sisters in relationship to the five pillars as we are which is the mainstay and reality of contextual fingerprints in this malady to date.

Over the past 12 months, breaks in the transmission of risk trends from session to session due to US holidays tend to align to changes in direction and/or tempo for the S&P 500, USD and VIX Volatility Index. There are certainly additional circumstances that play into this situation, but current conditions present a very interesting picture. The dollar’s tumble and US equity market’s rally has played out with a limited fundamental engine. The moves seem more born out of routine than dedication.

I will look around march 3 to see what is what. Sold nsk chk and a few others today. Will oil hit $110.00 depends on whats on fire that day.

[Higgenbotham]

One way to look at this (it's how I look at it) is what's the chance they could have gotten this far and still be standing. I can't prove it, but I think slim to none. In other words, they were lucky.

Let's say hypothetically that God had created 100 similar situations to that which was present in March of 2009, in how many of them would the stock market still be sitting at a record high despite enormous complexity, no fat finger, no assassination, no terrorist attack, no war, no financial collapse, 5 years later? My guess, 97% it would have happened by now, and we sit in the 3%.

The fracking boom helped a lot to get things over the hump. I don't think they would have made it this far without that.

[at99sy]

One way to look at this (it's how I look at it) is what's the chance they could have gotten this far and still be standing. I can't prove it, but I think slim to none. In other words, they were lucky.

Let's say hypothetically that God had created 100 similar situations to that which was present in March of 2009, in how many of them would the stock market still be sitting at a record high despite enormous complexity, no fat finger, no assassination, no terrorist attack, no war, no financial collapse, 5 years later? My guess, 97% it would have happened by now, and we sit in the 3%.

H it would appear then that this situation reflects a massive coordinated assault on preventing the financial meltdown for as long as possible. So many little situations as you mention have happened but did little lasting damage. A conspiracist might suspect it was intentional to test the waters for a much larger and utterly devastating event.

All of the players must be working together to prevent the crash. Until they find a "solution" or it becomes so big that it will bring everything down.Either way they win, we lose.

cheers

sy

[Higgenbotham]

H it would appear then that this situation reflects a massive coordinated assault on preventing the financial meltdown for as long as possible.

That's another aspect I've thought about. There wasn't one leader of any major country in the world who wanted to upset the applecart and tell the rest of them no, that I will look out for my own country first. I thought Merkel was going to pull the plug on the thing back in 2011.

Let's say the flash crash really was a random event (I'm not so sure). But if so, the lucky aspect of that was it came when the stock market was still relatively low priced and there wasn't a lot of leverage built up. Then, because it happened so soon, they put safeguards in place to prevent another one. Had the first flash crash been triggered later it could have been a real crash, or led to a situation they couldn't control with QE. Bernanke stepped in with QE 3 months after the flash crash. I think the (financial) meltdown in 2011 came perilously close to coming unglued.

Actually, I'm just as astounded there have been no assassinations of any signficance. Gabby Giffords is the only one that comes to mind and that was minor. Or any of a number of other things, really.

Fukushima was a bad event, and I have no idea how they are holding Japan together 3 years later. Maybe it's due to the nature of the Japanese people.

But overall it's just my gut feel that the world got lucky and like you had implied the luck is due to run out.

[aedens]

Your correct since the thin veneer of civilation is the ability to adapt calories to mantain existance.
I have found it easier to invest here than anywhere else at times. When the brits lowered the rating we
had it nailed and numerous other items since we trade our book here and no one elses.
The States needs to mind affairs at home first since those others zone are past reason since no
one seems to understand free lunch and other peoples money runs out as wasted water, soil
and simple faith. Charity begins at home then other may be helped if they even have a bent of mind
worth salvaging. I cannot think of many things they stated that are fact. You can keep your red and blue crayons
since I cannot believe them and they caused that.

[Higgenbotham]

a, in line with our comment on the RUT, I was going to mention, with the oil price breaking out today, that would corroborate. I pared back shorts tonight on this dip.

[aedens]

rut was a last nail on the items I seen of the 5 so I sold into it. I will short after the fires burn out
since eating sardines are the issue until then. I have one position levered only. I assume oil can
drop when gold backs up and we have a number already here on that thought. I am watching cg
as the usual suspects also as other of course.

[John]

>> H it would appear then that this situation reflects a massive
>> coordinated assault on preventing the financial meltdown for as
>> long as possible.

> That's another aspect I've thought about. There wasn't one leader
> of any major country in the world who wanted to upset the
> applecart and tell the rest of them no, that I will look out for
> my own country first.

I actually wrote about this in 2006. Take a look at this article. It
says exactly what you're saying -- that no major country wants to
upset the applecart by crossing any red lines that might start a war.

** A beautiful mind? The world is paralyzed into a 'Nash equilibrium'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... 17nash.htm

John

[aedens]

Agree as they sharpen old pencils John. Nash rarely leaves the bias routes.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-1 ... -1900-june
The applecart is above our pay grade and we noted watching baby playing with a hammer is never fun
as Rogers noted correctly. Also dig sites still hot from circa 2500 BCE sorts out the kool aid thinking crowd also.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... ciety.html t

Summary: I expect there has been a trend change at 1,332.28. Overall price should continue lower for about seven to ten weeks from here.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32833/ ... l-analysis not going to disagree at all.

[vincecate]

One of the things I have done over the last 4 years is a "cash for gold" business. After this long most of the people who are hard pressed for cash and have gold have already sold their gold. Business is way down. I expect the same is generally true for other cash for gold places. If investor demand for gold keeps going up and the supply from "cash for gold" is dropping off, it seems to me that the price of gold should go up.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... onnes-2013