Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

My favored scenario is taking shape. That would be for today or tomorrow to be a high before a significant move down starts. I added 50% to my short position late yesterday and this morning.

So by mid month for sure you think the next leg down is in, big time?

I would answer your question this way. If the market is still making new highs mid month it will have probably passed the 50% retracement at 4150 and the odds from there would be for continued upside.

I'm 15/27 as short as I was near 4100 in early August, up from 10/27 2 days ago. So really I am still in wait and see mode and adding slowly.

Aside from my favored scenario, if the market is still hanging up near 4100 on December 4, I'll be watching December 8-11. The reason is the 20 year, 2 month cycle could invert from a low over the past few cycles into a high there. That would be a good place for a wave 2 or B high, in my opinion, but I don't like that as much as my favored scenario.

[Higgenbotham]

This link has detail on the 20 year 2 month cycle. The August 20 post is the one to scroll down to.

https://www.timesymmetry.com/daily-comments.htm

The bottoms are consistent from 1942 and I think a high in 2022 would be significant. How significant I don't know. My reason for saying that is a similar thing happened in 2007 where 25, 50, and 75 year cycles that had previously been lows inverted into a high in October 2007. I interpreted that wrongly to mean that 2007 would be a very significant high (in other words, that it would hold longer than for the few years that it actually did).

We are in a similar place now with this 20 year 2 month cycle and the 90 year cycle of bottoms forming an inversion into a 2022 high. On the 90 year cycle, the 1932 low was July 8, 1932. I believe I tried to figure out when the 1842 low was (which day in 1842) but was unable to.

This is another point of view:

https://twitter.com/BergMilton/status/1 ... 6135008256

I disagree that the down phase of a 90 year cycle can last just 6 months under any circumstances but that's what makes a market, I guess.

[Cool Breeze]

This link has detail on the 20 year 2 month cycle. The August 20 post is the one to scroll down to.

https://www.timesymmetry.com/daily-comments.htm

...

This is another point of view:

https://twitter.com/BergMilton/status/1 ... 6135008256

I disagree that the down phase of a 90 year cycle can last just 6 months under any circumstances but that's what makes a market, I guess.

I don't get what timesymmetry guy is saying, except that his November panic thing was off (hard call, just saying). The "bear market low", does that suggest a blow off topic is coming? December is going to mark a low, moving higher, or that the next big low is coming after December?

I like Mac10's comment on Berg's tweet the best, that seems far more likely.

[Higgenbotham]

I don't get what timesymmetry guy is saying, except that his November panic thing was off (hard call, just saying). The "bear market low", does that suggest a blow off topic is coming? December is going to mark a low, moving higher, or that the next big low is coming after December?

I like Mac10's comment on Berg's tweet the best, that seems far more likely.

Timesymmetry was saying in August to expect a major bear market low on or about December 8. That was based on important bear market lows in April 1942, June 1962, August 1982 and October 2002. The lows 40 and 80 years back were very significant, and it is reasonable to think that the Fed tried to defeat that cycle. I can only guess what timesymmetry would say now, but it would probably be that the major low he predicted based on the 20 year, 2 month cycle is still coming. That seems to be his standard line of reasoning. At this point, it doesn't matter to me what he would say. Though I would say he is an excellent trader in his own right when he is on. He's not one of the 8 I follow at present because this environment is not conducive to his style at present.

My preferred reasoning is that on the pure 20 year cycle, going 20 years back, Greenspan was screwing somewhat with the cycles in that he was trying to prevent a huge Depression and he said so. But what Greenspan was doing was nowhere near the amount of distortion the Fed is currently engaging in to hold off this bear market. Therefore, rather than the move just above the October 2002 low that occurred in March 2003, I am expecting that the October 2022 low will break in the first quarter of 2023 and the bear market low will happen then, or at least there will be a significant and tradeable intermediate term low.

[aeden]

https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2021 ... s#comments
lie cheat steal

[Cool Breeze]

I don't get what timesymmetry guy is saying, except that his November panic thing was off (hard call, just saying). The "bear market low", does that suggest a blow off topic is coming? December is going to mark a low, moving higher, or that the next big low is coming after December?

I like Mac10's comment on Berg's tweet the best, that seems far more likely.

Timesymmetry was saying in August to expect a major bear market low on or about December 8. That was based on important bear market lows in April 1942, June 1962, August 1982 and October 2002. The lows 40 and 80 years back were very significant, and it is reasonable to think that the Fed tried to defeat that cycle. I can only guess what timesymmetry would say now, but it would probably be that the major low he predicted based on the 20 year, 2 month cycle is still coming. That seems to be his standard line of reasoning. At this point, it doesn't matter to me what he would say. Though I would say he is an excellent trader in his own right when he is on. He's not one of the 8 I follow at present because this environment is not conducive to his style at present.

My preferred reasoning is that on the pure 20 year cycle, going 20 years back, Greenspan was screwing somewhat with the cycles in that he was trying to prevent a huge Depression and he said so. But what Greenspan was doing was nowhere near the amount of distortion the Fed is currently engaging in to hold off this bear market. Therefore, rather than the move just above the October 2002 low that occurred in March 2003, I am expecting that the October 2022 low will break in the first quarter of 2023 and the bear market low will happen then, or at least there will be a significant and tradeable intermediate term low.

Yes, we are thinking the same way in general. I just think it'll move much lower in January-ish and then the "rallies" will continue to be lower highs, followed by lower lows. The idiots who think they are front running the Fed with the pivot have no idea how long it's going to be until they pivot. That sets up algo and retail panic time coming up. I don't see a pivot until at least June. They want to hurt the whole, fragile system. I'm out and shorting the russell in about 2 weeks or whenever I decide that the quick up here of some of these dumb buyers is done.

[aeden]

Market thinks it knows. It could care less. Clear enough since few here even cared to understand orphan pass throughs.
Uniparty does care less.
Guaranteed our "leaders" will exploit the crisis they created as only when once the bodies have piled up enough to make good propaganda.

https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/wp-c ... l-Expo.mp4
It will never be clear enough for far to many.
They do not want to know.
We saved who we could.

[aeden]

probable wave summation wave funtion hurst as m pattern
some could interpet golden pocket for fib
longer count into march look compelling as h noted - valid

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=st5flczYAus&t=921s

book4 closed
sold 270 filter sweeps

expect the center of the m wave to hold into march sweeps for now imo
never fight the tape
warned you h note look valid on some more metrics
sealed the year content

[vincecate]

[richard5za]

Totally agree with the trend analysis. It is possible to get "false breaks" which cause even more losses because some people believe so completely that they are willing to bet "the farm" to make a fortune

So there may or may not be a santa rally. For me it would need to brak up to about 4350 before I would think that the bear was over

I am anticipating some euphoria around the CPI on the 13th and then there's an option expiry on 15th, so things could be a bit hectic. But it may be quite different to this!!!