Financial topics

[vincecate]

Rich, at this point things are way too far gone to take a step towards correction - that would have been possible in 2008 but not now. The generational demographics make the deflating of the stock market a national security issue, as Luke Gromen has pointed out frequently.

I think there really is no way out at this point. They will probably talk about a step to try to keep some credibility but soon people are going to be selling bonds fast and interest rates going up and they will feel "the market is broken we have to fix it" and start printing and buying. But the faster they print and buy the faster people will sell. The faster people sell, the faster they will print and buy. Soon there will be $28 trillion in newly printed money. But it won't stop there because government expenses are indexed to inflation and they were already spending twice what they got in taxes.

[vincecate]

You are right, Vince. There's beena lot of wasted days!!

Yup but we are "reaching the end of the road" and it will soon be "time to pay the piper".
If inflation rates are going up as fast as they are it really is "out of control" already.
So much trouble coming.

[FullMoon]

You are right, Vince. There's beena lot of wasted days!!

Yup but we are "reaching the end of the road" and it will soon be "time to pay the piper".
If inflation rates are going up as fast as they are it really is "out of control" already.
So much trouble coming.

Maybe by installing a failed Soviet economist to run the Office of Comptroller of the Currency, they can manage things properly. The common person is going to experience great difficulty.

[Cool Breeze]

You are right, Vince. There's beena lot of wasted days!!

Yup but we are "reaching the end of the road" and it will soon be "time to pay the piper".
If inflation rates are going up as fast as they are it really is "out of control" already.
So much trouble coming.

Oh yes, it is pretty clear. What's your timeframe now? Does it matter that others around the world are playing the same game?

It's especially scary since the "great reset" will be tried once all the people are clamoring for a savior to give them the food, beers and sportsball back.

The people unaware (these are usually city jab people) are going to get eaten alive by the Dem handout fools they provided cover for over the last several decades - sad, but true.

[vincecate]

What's your timeframe now? Does it matter that others around the world are playing the same game?

China and Russia have been selling US treasuries and buying gold. So there is some chance that their currencies might not go to zero (not sure).

Well, I don't know. Honestly I am amazed we can get to 6.2% annual inflation without crashing. But I will be even more amazed if we last another 3 months.

[Cool Breeze]

What's your timeframe now? Does it matter that others around the world are playing the same game?

China and Russia have been selling US treasuries and buying gold. So there is some chance that their currencies might not go to zero (not sure).

Well, I don't know. Honestly I am amazed we can get to 6.2% annual inflation without crashing. But I will be even more amazed if we last another 3 months.

Ha, you'll be amazed. Something big may happen in 2022 (my prediction) but it won't be for 4-7 months, at least.

[vincecate]

Well, I don't know. Honestly I am amazed we can get to 6.2% annual inflation without crashing. But I will be even more amazed if we last another 3 months.

Ha, you'll be amazed. Something big may happen in 2022 (my prediction) but it won't be for 4-7 months, at least.

It now looks like we will pass 7% inflation before the end of the year, probably 8% in less than 4 months.
How high do you think inflation can get without the market crashing?

We have never had this high a P/E ratio with this high a CPI before. Just does not seem like it can go much further. It really feels like the cartoon character going off the edge of the cliff and just not falling yet because it has not looked down. See graph at end of this: https://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2021/0 ... rning.html

Bonds are most overvalued in entire human history by a long shot. As they crash all the institutional money with their 60:40 portfolios will sell stocks and buy more stupid crashing bonds. This ensures that stocks also will crash.

[Cool Breeze]

Well, I don't know. Honestly I am amazed we can get to 6.2% annual inflation without crashing. But I will be even more amazed if we last another 3 months.

Ha, you'll be amazed. Something big may happen in 2022 (my prediction) but it won't be for 4-7 months, at least.

It now looks like we will pass 7% inflation before the end of the year, probably 8% in less than 4 months.
How high do you think inflation can get without the market crashing?

We have never had this high a P/E ratio with this high a CPI before. Just does not seem like it can go much further. It really feels like the cartoon character going off the edge of the cliff and just not falling yet because it has not looked down. See graph at end of this: https://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2021/0 ... rning.html

As a pure guess, I'll say it can go to 10-12% before things go belly up. But yes, each month of that increase will be a mounting pressure and social issues boiling up, as well, given the lack of trust in institutions (you can tell Demented Joe already realizes this, or his handlers do at least).

By the way, I have seen multiple analyses that if you use early 80s to pre 80s CPI calculations, CPI actually is 15% minimum.

Why will they sell stocks to buy crashing bonds?

[Cool Breeze]

In the Hussman article why does Grantham say in his quotes of the Fed,

They don't get. They don't see it.

I don't think incompetence is the deal. They don't know because no one knows. No one cares is the issue. They will not ever take the pain vs trying to kick the can, for numerous and obvious reasons. They both get it and see it, it's just that they have to massage the game because they know they only have one real option.

I'm not sure why either he won't say this, or doesn't understand it. Probably because JG is himself a hack globalist also putting on a show.

[vincecate]

From twitter:

stef @scheplick

Rivian is the first-ever company to be worth $100 billion with under $1 million in revenue.

All things considered, that's a pretty amazing accomplishment

https://scheplick.com/2021/11/11/the-fi ... e-company/