Financial topics

[aeden]

CEO of Carlyle:
https://gab.com/KeepNHGranite/posts/107247678052840306

Newly elected Republican Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin written in 2020 as the CEO of $ 293-billion equity firm The Carlyle Group.
Quote from Daniel Concannon:
Not sure if this will post here, it's from GAB, but this is something Youngkin wrote as CEO of Carlyle:

https://gab.com/KeepNHGranite/posts/107247678052840306

This is the actual letter from newly elected Republican Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin written in 2020 as the CEO of $ 293-billion equity firm The Carlyle Group.

Quote from Daniel Concannon:

The letter boasts Carlyle's "Diversity & Inclusion" initiatives in a George Floyd-inspired fundraising drive for "social justice" organizations including the Anti-White hate organization the SPLC - who literally conduct Anti-White Critical Race Theory training.

Youngkin was elected on a wave of 𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙞-Critical Race Theory fervor.

This is quintessential Republican politics, but I don't think that the precision inside-out insanity of this particular scenario has been fully comprehended.

Republicans: Owning the Critical Race Theorists by electing Critical Race Theorists' "Diversity & Inclusion" initiatives in a George Floyd-inspired fundraising drive for "social justice" organizations including the Anti-White hate organization the SPLC - who literally conduct Anti-White Critical Race Theory training.
Youngkin was elected on a wave of 𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙞-Critical Race Theory fervor.
This is quintessential Republican politics, but I don't think that the precision inside-out insanity of this particular scenario has been fully comprehended.

You have already been warned about Carlyle.
Again we warn you of the price of external propaganda and the spur of avarice.

δοκιμάζετε τὰ πνεύματα.

[vincecate]

As we wait breathlessly for Wednesday morning's release of the latest
CPI, and Vince wonders breathlessly whether it will match the recent
sharp increases in the PPI,

[...]
In the meantime, we'll see what happens tomorrow morning.

I don't think the CPI is about to match the PPI, but I do expect 5.8% (rounded) or more will happen as predicted by Cleveland Fed:
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

Yes, will be interesting to see what really happens in 20 mins.
Seems like this report and next months have a good chance of breaking the "transitory" narrative.

-- Vince

[vincecate]

6.2% CPI should bother people. Biggest increase in 31 years.
Again, if this month's is not enough to scare people, I expect next month to be higher and more scary.
The Fed says they are aiming for 2% per year and they have 0.9% per month. So far off target.
Bitcoin and Gold are liking this but the stock market is not down too much so far.
Nobody I know is as worried about inflation as me, and even I did not expect to go from 5.4% to 6.2% in one month.
Note on Fred Graph it says 6.24%.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – OCTOBER 2021

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent
in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in September,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months,
the all items index increased 6.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The monthly all items seasonally adjusted increase was broad-based, with
increases in the indexes for energy, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and
new vehicles among the larger contributors. The energy index rose 4.8 percent
over the month, as the gasoline index increased 6.1 percent and the other major
energy component indexes also rose. The food index increased 0.9 percent as the
index for food at home rose 1.0 percent.

The all items index rose 6.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, the large
st 12-month increase since the period ending November 1990.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IKlL

[aeden]

I can remove my tinfoil hat, can you remove your spike protein as your veins rot.

[Tom Mazanec]

John:
Any data on PPI and CPI diverging GD/WWII era?

[vincecate]

"At its $78 offer price, Rivian is already worth almost as much as Ford ($79 billion) and General Motors ($85 billion). That’s all before the company has even started generating real revenue."

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/09/rivian- ... llion.html

This is the kind of foolishness that happens at market peaks. Making 2 cars per day and worth as much as Ford or GM. Crazy.

[aeden]

https://summit.news/2021/11/09/people-w ... fizer-ceo/

stiffarms stiffarm

duty to prevent

[vincecate]

Seems like about when Rivian started trading the S&P headed down. Really wonder if that was the "ring the bell" for the market peak.

[vincecate]

The Cleveland Fed now estimates November CPI to be 6.60%.
A 6.6% CPI would bother more than 6.2% does. If Cleveland Fed is as far off on Dec 10th as they were
today then we could see over 7%.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

So yearly inflation is going up like 0.5% per month and the Fed's plan to control this is to print slightly less each month.
A real plan, like Volker plan or "Taylor Rule", would require 10% interest rates.
That of course would kill the stock market and the economy.
So they can't do that. So we head on toward hyperinflation.

[John]

** 10-Nov-2021 World View: PPI vs CPI divergence

> John: Any data on PPI and CPI diverging GD/WWII era?

The issue of PPI vs CPI divergence is a new one for me, and I'll try
to research it in the days and weeks to come.

I suspect that the reasoning will turn out to be something like the
following:

• During "normal" (non-Crisis) times, ordinary market forces
  keep the PPI and CPI in balance. So, for example, if the PPI goes up,
  then businesses will be willing to borrow money to purchase supplies
  at higher prices, and people will be willing to borrow money to pay
  for more expensive goods and services.
• During a Crisis era, that kind of balancing doesn't apply.
• As I've written many times, people are reluctant to go further
  into debt, since their debt levels are already very high, and because
  they seen the possibility of war or financial crisis. This puts a
  ceiling on the CPI.
• Businesses are also reluctant to go into more debt for similar
  reasons. But during a Crisis era, with increasing nationalism and
  xenophobia, supply chains are likely to be disrupted, resulting in
  high business costs, which force businesses to raise prices, thus
  raising the PPI.
• Hence, the CPI and PPI diverge.

That pretty much summarizes what's happening now. I'll see if I can
find some data that will reveal that the same thing happened during
the Great Depression - WW II crisis.