Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

As we suggested the latency to peak is the call.

I noticed Achuthan addressed that in one of the videos in the link.

If the recession really did begin in July 2012, the 1937 model looks sound with the April and September peaks in most of the indices, and of course the higher high in September instead of a lower high (as in 1937) due to more recklessness in this current phase. I see no limit to Bernake's desire to be reckless so will take it day by day. My view really pointed to the onset of recession being more like "now" but at times like these I refer to the experts and he says it is rear view mirror with the graphs of the 4 key measures. Also, he mentions facts I am not studied enough to be aware of, like where he discusses the fact that employment peaked 8 months after the recession in the 1970s started. I mentioned the employment aspect yesterday but was only looking at it in terms of "not much improvement" since the last recession ended. Generally, I've noticed employment is a lagging variable so don't pay a lot of attention to it.

Zooming in on the observation date range of the EMRATIO shows it flat during the first few months after the 1973 recession started, but not rising.

[aedens]

Egypt: Parliamentary elections (expected in mid-February) are next.” Police firmly placed between the two groups.
If we have any bias at all, it's that we're pro-American.

To sum it up as we all do, actions are affected by subjective perceptions of situations.
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/gta/s ... f4b929e2fd

[OLD1953]

Personally, I think companies that keep investing in China, such as in that Gundlach article, are doing something very risky. Not only are they risking the government of China deciding to act like communist governments in trouble usually do, kill the capitalists, the public has noticed that money keeps running off to China. If capitalists keep telling the US public that Communism is a better deal for jobs and production than Capitalism, they are taking a real and serious risk that the public will decide they are correct. If that happens, they lose it all. Bad idea, IMHO, and very very self destructive behavior.

As regards the ERCI data, I'm not certain if it says recession, or it just reflects that people are making less money now due to pay cuts and taking jobs that pay less. We are in waters that haven't been tested in 70 years, so we are bound to have confusing signals on many fronts.

As for growth, it's been pathetic and is likely to continue that way for a good while.

Odds are excellent the "shock" that "starts" the recession will be attributed to the fiscal cliff talks failing. I'm starting to think that will all get patched up piecemeal later, with appropriations to the military to prevent that budget from dropping, but most of the rest is likely to stand pat, end of the Bush tax cuts and all, for a while. Funny how temporary means forever when it's politics.

[vincecate]

Personally, I think companies that keep investing in China, such as in that Gundlach article, are doing something very risky. Not only are they risking the government of China deciding to act like communist governments in trouble usually do, kill the capitalists, the public has noticed that money keeps running off to China. If capitalists keep telling the US public that Communism is a better deal for jobs and production than Capitalism, they are taking a real and serious risk that the public will decide they are correct. If that happens, they lose it all. Bad idea, IMHO, and very very self destructive behavior.

It is a strange world where communist China treats investors in a more Laissez-faire capitalist way than the USA. But for the last 10 years this is really the way things are. Capital flows to where it is treated well. You are correct that at any time China might do the true communist thing and start nationalising all sorts of stuff and killing the capitalist pigs. However, if they did that their economy would crash. I think they understand the true source of their growth. To me it looks like they are more commited to capitalism than the USA at this point. But it is a big risk for sure.

[psCargile]

Is it the Chinese government that is practicing capitalism, or the Chinese people?

[aedens]

Is it the Chinese government that is practicing capitalism, or the Chinese people?

According to China Daily, 15 were murdered, 17 committed suicide, seven died from accidents and 19 died from illness. Oh, yes, and 14 were executed. (Welcome to China.) Chinese billionaire dies every 40 days. wsj
We only noted one limey banker who fell without a tie on so bad form on him.

[aedens]

As we noted Private Equity is picking up on discount H. Benny and the Inkjets are alive and well.
It was noted in the forums on the aspect it would get interesting on the dark pools inventory marks and
balance sheet recessions transfers of what Dr. Koo alluded on IMO. Tyler ran a article on the linkages and
inflationary buffer it would enable. As we noted very early this is the event horizon on some debt is
more imporatant than others. As Holmes noted the games afoot. The keynasian veil we noted back
in the forum. I am short 1/3 as notes as conveyed. Choose wisely cause who would figure the togas would
not pull the pin on the taxpayer. I will stick to for now to my original observation but it will shift as
the stradles do on targeting on these patriots....

http://www.bankers-anonymous.com/about/

Do not forget the two LLC funnels they use on short term and long term dividend funnels.
Just like the blue and red togas shelters....

[OLD1953]

The question of interest is this, how are Chinese capitalists treated? And Aedens answered that one, but yes, the answer is badly. The notion that foreigners will be given precedence over locals for an extended period is peculiar, but many seem to believe it. I doubt it will last much past the transfer of power. China has pretty well gotten what they wanted from this deal, so it's about time for the deal to end.

I don't see capitalists being treated "well" at all in China, I see them being babied, which is hardly a good thing. This is similar to the treatment WalMart has gotten in the USA, they are babied. This is not a way to produce rough and tumble businesses, this is how you produce weaklings that fold under pressure.

Other oddities in that Gundlach article was his thoughts on inflation. I don't think he's got that one right, continued "stimulus" will absolutely crush the consumers and kill the real economy, but that isn't an inflation building move. The FED officials have certainly noticed that they aren't having the desired result, and they have shifted to buying mortgages. They still have not figured out a way to actually get people to buy much, so they'll buy it themselves. That's approaching the old idea that I'll take in your laundry and you take in mine and we'll both get rich.

[gerald]

Is it the Chinese government that is practicing capitalism, or the Chinese people?

According to China Daily, 15 were murdered, 17 committed suicide, seven died from accidents and 19 died from illness. Oh, yes, and 14 were executed. (Welcome to China.) Chinese billionaire dies every 40 days. wsj
We only noted one limey banker who fell without a tie on so bad form on him.

A few years ago while on a pleasure trip in China, I and others from the US, noticed the "peasants" seemed to be very eager "capitalists."
Communism may in large part be a top down affair.

[aedens]

yes they are a pillar, nerva, page 223
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11696.pdf
Some time ago we studied the tranche affairs and tearups that were warranted.
Interesting times. This was around the time we considered the back wall was approaching
to normalcy. We got over that naive thought rather quickly.

http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-03-25/110127786.html

They sat down and sorted out some contracts.