Financial topics

[richard5za]

Powell claims 2.5% interest is the neutral rate when the fake CPI is 9.1% and real is probably 13+%.

The question is, is he lying or stupid? In general stupidity really does explain most things, but as the head of the Federal reserve and in charge of "stable prices" it can't be ignorance.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... #xj4y7vzkg

He is lying. Its all about mid terms and other politics. Not to be trusted

[richard5za]

Phong, bear markets that are accompanied by a recession tend to be long drawn out affairs, quite different to non-recessionary bear market corrections.
I don't think that the market will bottom this year; my current view (based upon my own fuzzy maths) is January 2023 at the earliest but more probably mid 2023 for the market bottom

Based on my previous projections, January 2023 would have been my first approximation of an interim market bottom as well. A good 40% off from top to bottom. My initial line of thinking for an August downturn was that the democrats would want a rising market into the mid term elections, so downturn in Aug-Sep and then another bear market rally into Sep-Oct. Can't see them trying to win an election when a market crash is fresh in the minds of everyone, and also don't see how the markets would just gyrate for another 4 months.

What would be the rationale for bear markets with a recession being more drawn out then non-recessionary? Wouldn't bear markets with a recession have a lower velocity of money and therefore less discretionary spending and less dip buyers?

In a recessionary bear market there is both falling earnings and falling P/E ratios. In a non recessionary bear market the P/E ratio falls but not the earnings, or a lot less. Investor psychology is different too, less panic. One of the hall marks of a recessionary bear is a significant portion of the general public saying "i don't want to own Stocks" Of course that doesn't last very long. FOMO (fear of missing out) works on the psychology of a lot of people

[aeden]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7gAEkzIgvw

https://youtu.be/R7gAEkzIgvw?t=1841

Objective reply leverage by malevolent intent H by the alleged people leading in the wrong damned direction.
What was missed was the shipment was contaminated and the bureaucrat's started the pissing contests in a zone
now named Sri Lanka.

The lightswitch notes are what we seen and now here.

They are starving the poor by high energy cost we warned of.
The intent of high cost is policy and as put get ready.
Let them freeze in the dark and yes we donated funds to bury the frozen dead
as our people reported the truth.

The cascading event into September was already forwarded.

Forty year failure maps indicate just on our inputs.

40 to 50 percent operational related.
30 to 40 percent design related.
10 to 30 maintenance practices.
Never set unreal goals.
2004 data fragility files.
4/17/2019 reviewed failure analysis.

[aeden]

https://policetribune.com/alleged-arson ... on-forest/

The Devil and Karl Marx: Communism's Long March of Death, Deception, and Infiltration
Paul Kengor

As they told you the long march is now taking over. Defend yourself the hour is late.

[aeden]

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=3SHz4t_O
As indicated will add into 42XX if/then.
As we noted you first as we will hold your beer.
Good luck pilgrim's.

1. The ideology and purpose of the propaganda campaign
2. The context in which the propaganda occurs
3. Identification of the propagandist
4. The structure of the propaganda organization
Much of the American right is hostile toward the press, but there’s not much research seeking to understand why, or what it means.
Funding from the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia University.
5. The target audience
6. Media utilization techniques
7. Special techniques to maximize effect
8. Audience reaction to various techniques
9. Counter propaganda, if present
10. Effects and evaluation
note: After Hitler came to power, the Frankfurt intellectuals came to the United States.
Ironically, Adorno, the hater of popular culture, settled in Los Angeles. Marcuse ended up in NYC,
where the work of the Frankfurt School was continued on a formal basis at Columbia University.

The book's purpose is to make every group affiliation sound as if it were a sign of mental disorder. Everything from patriotism to religion to family -- and race -- loyalty are signs of a dangerous and defective "authoritarian personality." Because drawing distinctions between different groups is illegitimate, all group loyalties -- even close family ties! -- are "prejudice." As Christopher Lasch has written, the book leads to the conclusion that prejudice "could be eradicated only by subjecting the American people to what amounted to collective psychotherapy -- by treating them as inmates of an insane asylum."
The first attempt was 1986 on our group. It was a graduate student from Cornell. The internalized drones fell head first.

These upcoming clown face paint show will be a Frankfurt School wet dream since the cult was removed deriving itself from social theory
and critical philosophy associated with the Institute for Social Research, at Goethe University Frankfurt in 1929.
Founded in the Weimar Republic (1918-1933), during the European interwar period. Straight out of the pit from the 1840's deceptions.

The bourgeoisie will remember my carbuncles until their dying day, Marx told Engels in a letter from 1867.
The analysis we utilized is from the 1840 to 1884 intellectual pivot point from the Pari café liberals Sismondi mentioned also.

Europe will crack first. Hunter beat them all.

thread: september, Quindecimviri sacris faciundis
thread: 1958

[aeden]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 994622002/

math

http://www.reinhartandrogoff.com/

Induced supply shocks

2024 democrats will have the economy in a depression and still blame someone else.

[aeden]

Germany plans to introduce a levy for all its gas consumers beginning in October as the government looks to avoid a wave of collapsing gas-importing and gas-trading companies amid record-high natural gas prices, a new bill seen by Reuters showed on Thursday.

thread: lightswitch

[Tom Mazanec]

The Fed is walking a tightthread between preventing hyperinflation and putting the Dow et. al. into a power dive. Maybe they can keep it up the next meeting, but can they do it the following one? And that is only six days before the election.

[vincecate]

The Fed is walking a tightthread between preventing hyperinflation and putting the Dow et. al. into a power dive. Maybe they can keep it up the next meeting, but can they do it the following one? And that is only six days before the election.

Every time they are predicting inflation will rapidly drop back down to 2% but for a year now it keeps going up. I still think at some CPI report people are going to realize the Fed does not know what they are doing and should not be trusted.

[aeden]

The Fed is walking a tightthread between preventing hyperinflation and putting the Dow et. al. into a power dive. Maybe they can keep it up the next meeting, but can they do it the following one? And that is only six days before the election.

The bill, aimed at reducing inflation, is paid for by taxes on corporations and wealthy investors. Lie number one from democrats.

Summary:
Now comes the critical point.
According to Say commodities - goods and services - 'are ultimately paid for not by money but by other commodities. Money is merely the commonly used medium of exchange; it plays only an intermediate role.' Von Mises continues by noting that Say believes as does von Mises himself, that 'Every commodity produced is therefore a price, as it were, for other commodities produced.' Therefore, the producer's problem if he has an overproduction is his failure to understand the future demand for his production and under evaluated the future demand for alternatives. Von Mises writes that this is Say's point.
The bank of mom dad also know your stupid by choice.

A packaged pragmatic lie as they lie cheat steal.

Wed Jul 10, 2013 6:33 pm
Here we are with the cool aid from the source: asymmetric paternalism, states that paternalism should be invited if it bestows large benefits on those who make errors in judgment while imposing little or no harm upon those who are fully rational. While some may argue that this benefit to shortsighted consumers comes at the expense of retailers, it can be posited that correcting these errors in judgment enhances economic efficiency to the benefit of both parties involved. Given that achieving such change is a difficult process, it is helpful to understand the dynamics of an individual’s desires and the strategies that can effectively control them, AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2003.

The corruption of the regulatory bodies does not shake his blind confidence in the infallibility and perfection of the state; it merely fills him with moral aversion to entrepreneurs and capitalists. No one should expect that any logical argument or any experience could ever shake the almost religious fervour of those who believe in salvation through spending and credit expansion. The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.
By short-circuiting the price mechanism and forcing people into economic lives contrary to their own chosing, central planning destroys the capital base and creates economic randomness that eventually ends in killing prosperity. mises

They are going to murder the poor by design as proscribed.

Book Four reopened. Farmers also know democrats are missing in action for a very very long time.
Manchin appears to be the only Adult with any sense.

In their arrogance, do these 270 stupid companies think you can play politics with customers much longer is the point also. fify