Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

If an investor redeems shares of a participating fund after September 19, the coverage extends only to the balance in the fund on the date it "breaks the buck." Also, coverage does not apply to any new money invested in a fund after September 19—increases in the number of shares acquired after that date wouldn't be covered. Vanguard was arm twisted as observed many month ago by the Fed to secure these provisions which I do not have a opinion on since it was just crowd control in context to the time frame. To date many firms will be stressed by blatant incompetencies compounded by blatant policy provisions which are self evident to date.
Ceteris paribus:
Principal-agent problem: Enforcing such contracts will involve transaction costs (often referred to as agency costs), and these costs may sometimes be very high indeed. http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... dens#p3651 Mon Apr 13, 2009
Political economy: Political economists are interested in analyzing and explaining the ways in which various sorts of government affect the allocation of scarce resources in society through their laws and policies. http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... dens#p3663
Political business cycle: Unfortunately these very policies, especially if pursued to excess, can also have very unpleasant consequences in the longer term (accelerating inflation, an unsustainably low rate of savings to support future investment, damage to the foreign trade balance, long-term expansion of government's share of the GNP at the expense of people's disposable incomes.
Writing in the Huffington Post, Ralph Gomory as many also called on for the United States to adopt Import Certificates Plan to balance trade.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ralph-gom ... 96131.html
Unfortunately thanks to foolishness in the third branch of government, there is no limit on the federal government’s power to do harm.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 1560#p3649
We have numerous points to include and since public opinion will not be the scope today we can only convey what we wish to avoid. The cap and trade has delayed the recovery. Investors like me who ask to be judged by the question we ask are finished investing into trends we know the results. They will have to see firsthand
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... dens#p2765 what they have delivered. I have cut my savings in preparation to this induced stupor we endure. If they cannot see they are the problem there will never be a solution. I have read where they are sweeping the world banks for accounts.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... dens#p3653
http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews ... on=article

If it is about taxes or plain vanilla saving outside their fiat universe we will see. For many decades they deny balance and they wonder why we discern that there cheerful to useful idiots may be there maximum liability when they awake. This will happen when the productive people leave altogether and they just cannot see that far yet. I work Corporate and really it’s just an exodus in slow motion and soon after almost 30 years I plan on being next and so will you. Capital will go where it best treated and to prove that wrong in the historical reality of time and any bent of mind you cannot. Deficits do matter so research better source documents than there talking heads. The work will drain away as has the capital. Our summer of discontent will be the only good thing we see for some time. Prove us wrong will be our renewed countenance when balance is fact as the reason it is. Some say they are letting it unwind, I just asked them how dependant are you on others to date and had to walk away.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/politics/story/64528.html
Younger moderates bring a generational perspective.
"I am one of the few (lawmakers) who may actually have to end up paying for the deficits we're currently running up," said Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Va., a 34-year-old freshman.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/CPIAUCNS.txt
Unadjusted CPI has increased four straight months in a row. From Dec 2008 to Apr 2009, unadjusted CPI rose from 210.228 to 213.240. That's a 1.4% increase over four months, which works out to an annualized price inflation rate of 4.3%.
Actual and "seasonal" is now over a four-month period ;-)
How to generate severe stagflation in the years 2010 through 2019 right on que thanks Washington provided below.
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a new Measure of Fiscal Shocks, by Christina D. and David H. Romer (March 2007). (Christina Romer now chairs the president's Council of Economic Advisors). This study found that the tax multiplier is 3, meaning that each dollar rise in taxes will reduce private spending by $3."

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Energy ... table1.pdf
So who believes the tax mutiliplier and how the Waxman–Markey Climate Change Bill Would Affect the States,
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... dens#p1687 Sun Dec 07, 2008 3:10 pm
by Congressional District is not a disconnect to a run on capital on your future. Trust is a key word and see
where this is going. Patient? I remember clearly Mr. Johnsons war on poverty and Mr. Nixon's energy plan he called for.

Texas retired#5 WSJ
Wednesday, July 15, 2009 6:33:08 AM When Obama was running for office he promised to fix the housing mess....one more lie out of his mouth. The housing crisis is going to continue to plague this country until it is dealt with. Fannie and Freddie keep getting propped up by taxpayers. At this point it has slid so far that it will take years to turn around. The Obama administration is carrying out the Democratic agenda and they are not tackling the core issues with this nightmare of a recession...unemployment and housing. On wall street it is business as usual while middle America is struggling to survive and continuing to lose jobs. Obama and company are focused on the wrong things and they are killing this country.
==============================================================================================================================
This process is nowhere near complete and, until it is, the economy will barely grow if it does at all, and it may well oscillate between sluggish growth and modest decline for the next several years until the rebalancing of excessive debt has been completed. Until then, the economy will be deprived of adequate profits and cash flow, and businesses will not start to hire nor race to make capital expenditures when they have vast idle capacity.
No wonder poll after poll shows a steady erosion of confidence in the stimulus. So what kind of second-act stimulus should we look for? Something that might have a real multiplier effect, not a congressional wish list of pet programs. It is critical that the Obama administration not play politics with the issue. The time to get ready for a serious infrastructure program is now. It's a shame Washington didn't get it right the first time.

Mr. Zuckerman is chairman and editor in chief of U.S. News & World Report.
bluebird
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:59 am

Art Cashin video

Post by bluebird »

I have some videos with Art Cashin from October 24, 2008. He thought the big sell-off was going to be then. So this week Art Cashin believes that the market's direction will be clarified. Hmm, we shall see.

On 10/24/08 @ 8:50am, Art Cashin mentioned that the market could lose 1000 to 2000 points that day, and what happens over the next 5 to 8 days will be spoken about for generations, there was going to be a historic sell-off. It didn't happen, yet
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=902806671&play=1

10/24/08 @ 11:05am, Art Cashin says the action was disappointing, there was no true capitulation.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=902958639&play=1

10/24/08 @ 12:45pm, Art Cashin says there seemed like something was in the air, there was a crisis in Asia and Europe, but stopped at the shore. When the rally returns, it will be jawdropping.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=903044134&play=1

10/24/08 @ 2:02pm, Art Cashin mentions the WSJ had a story about a lunar cycle coming end of October, that he thinks might be the sell-off.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=903118660&play=1
StilesBC
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 9:44 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by StilesBC »

CNBC was declaring that "the recession is over" this morning after a report from Merrill Lynch suggested the same. It was like a circus. With flashing lights and excited children jumping all over the place.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, this is exactly what we should expect from a "Primary Degree wave 2 up." Its entire job is to convince as many people as possible that the previous wave down was exhausted and over. When sentiment is most extreme and this view is held by nearly everybody, wave 3 down will begin and destroy the aforementioned. The opposite is true when the primary trend is up. Wave 1 is considered a countertrend move in a bear market. Wave 2 down convinces everyone that the bear market is still going, etc.

I think such a situation will require higher prices still - perhaps toward S&P 975 or 1000. But without a large selloff in between March's lows and the highs, I don't think it can get much higher than that without exhausting itself. But I've been wrong before.

Today's article dealt with this subject, including some relevant quotes from around the same time in 1930:
http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009/07 ... -over.html
Gordo
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:18 am

Re: Financial topics

Post by Gordo »

Key reversal in the VIX today! This is significant and important.
John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Gordo wrote:Key reversal in the VIX today! This is significant and important.

That's a nice tease! Why is it significant and important?

John
aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

http://sprott.com/Docs/marketsataglance/June_2009.pdf true numbers do matter

Given the current state of the economy, it seems frighteningly apparent that a threefold
increase in debt purchases by the account holders listed above is a mathematical
impossibility. There is simply not enough money in the present economy to support a tripling
bond issue in the normal course of business. Every serious discussion of the problem of credit
expansion must start from the distinction between two classes of credit: commodity credit and circulation credit.
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aedens
Posts: 5211
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

Current topical validity to input.
http://www.criticalreview.com/crf/pdfs/ ... o21_23.pdf

Older context applies to the current Arc to touch the other end soon.

The taxation of private enterprise is failing. Therefore, one must start to "repropriate" the State by expropriating capitalist enterprises, so that the State will be able to cover its expenses out of the profits of its own undertakings. Here we have the cart before the horse. The financial difficulties result from the fact that taxation can no longer pay the large contributions required by socialist enterprises. Were all enterprises socialized, the form of the evil would indeed be changed, but far from being abolished it would be intensified. The smaller yield of the public enterprises would no longer be visible in a budget deficit, it is true, but the population would be worse off. Distress and misery would increase, not diminish. To remove the State's financial troubles Goldscheid proposes to carry socialization to the bitter end. But this financial trouble has come about because socialization has already gone too far. It will vanish only when socialized enterprises are returned to private ownership. Socialism has arrived at a point where the impossibility of carrying out its technique is apparent to all, where even the blind begin to see that it is hastening the decline of all civilization.

The socialist financial policy also is only a temporary one, its validity being limited to the period of transition.
Socialist politicians have taken things much more easily. They had no new opinions of their own, and from the Classical writers they took merely what they needed for the politics of the moment.
Ludwig von Mises (1881-1973) first published Socialism in German

Have a few books to finish and out of town a few.
There is a silver lining...
Gordo
Posts: 122
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:18 am

Re: Financial topics

Post by Gordo »

If you are still long the market, I think the recent rally is a good opportunity to unload.

The positive media spin on everything this morning is pretty entertaining. The jobs report is supposedly bullish despite the fact that the actual (unadjusted) number of initial claims was 667,000 which is an increase of 86,389 from the previous week and yet this is being portrayed as an improvement. Then you have the biggest headline story about JP Morgan’s profits SOARING 36% or whatever, this report is even funnier when you dig into it, so they made a few bucks TRADING during the biggest short term market rally since the depression, and yet at the same time, they admit their core business is looking ill with a loan portfolio that continues to deteriorate despite all the so called green shoots. They set aside 5 TIMES the amount of so called profits from the quarter for bad loan loss reserves! Hahah….

Sorry I didn't give more detail yesterday, but the key reversal in the VIX along with treasury action may be signaling a stock-market peak. I’m starting to believe the market is very close to a multi-year peak right NOW. VIX managed to get back down to levels last seen in Sept. 2008, signaling complacency. The remarkable reversal in VIX yesterday could be indicating an important trend change, I expect it to move considerably higher, probably to the 40 range, as the market sells off over the next several weeks. After that I'm not sure...

It is possible that the market will not get back to current levels for a decade or more when all is said and done. Real bear markets end with single digit P/E ratios (based on peak or 10 year trailing earnings) and 6+% dividend yields, that’s the bottom line. Being long before that point is just asking for trouble, not that I don’t play bounces :lol:

We may get one final monster bounce higher after the next significant sell off, I'm playing it by ear.
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7985
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Gordo wrote:Sorry I didn't give more detail yesterday, but the key reversal in the VIX along with treasury action may be signaling a stock-market peak. I’m starting to believe the market is very close to a multi-year peak right NOW.
I agree. Today I wired funds into my futures account and plan to look for a place to get short. This will be my first trade this year. The patterns I am seeing in the market appear that a crash could be imminent.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Roubini says the worst is over

Post by John »

Gordo wrote: > Sorry I didn't give more detail yesterday, but the key reversal in
> the VIX along with treasury action may be signaling a stock-market
> peak. I’m starting to believe the market is very close to a
> multi-year peak right NOW.
Higgenbotham wrote: > I agree. Today I wired funds into my futures account and plan to
> look for a place to get short. This will be my first trade this
> year. The patterns I am seeing in the market appear that a crash
> could be imminent.
What's wrong with you guys? Have you no sense whatsoever?

Don't you know that Nouriel Roubini has declared that the recession
is over?
> U.S. Stocks Rise as Roubini Predicts Recession to End This Year

> July 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a fourth day, the
> longest streak in six weeks, as economist Nouriel Roubini said the
> worst of the financial crisis is over and the recession will end
> this year, while takeover speculation lifted commodity shares.
> ...

> United Parcel Service Inc. and General Electric Co. led industrial
> shares to the best gain among 10 groups as Roubini, the New York
> University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said a
> second government stimulus plan would help broaden the economic
> recovery. ...

> Financial shares led the market lower earlier on concern
> commercial lender CIT Group Inc. will have to file for bankruptcy
> protection and after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said its credit-card
> business probably won’t make money next year. The S&P 500 reversed
> its loss as Roubini said the world’s largest economy will recover
> from the recession by the end of 2009.

> “The freefall of the economy has stopped,” Roubini said at a
> Chilean investors’ conference in New York. “There is light at the
> end of the tunnel. And the light at the end of the tunnel for once
> is not the one of an incoming train.”
I can't stop laughing at this. CIT Group is about to go bankrupt,
and Roubini says it's all wonderful. Roubini doesn't have the vaguest
idea what's going on.

John
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