The first is that we’re living in a time of astonishing progress with digital technologies—those that have computer hardware, software, and networks at their core. These technologies are not brand-new; businesses have been buying computers for more than half a century, and Time magazine declared the personal computer its “Machine of the Year” in 1982.
This is sort
of my point.
The type
of thing that Widdowson might be looking for is, first, we know that oil production has been plateauing worldwide since 2005. It's true that the US is doing a decent job
of maintaining business as usual with tight oil, which will likely lead to horrendous consequences but nonetheless business as usual is being mantained for now. However, it's also universally understood that the gap tight oil is filling will open once again in a few years. In order to fill that gap, Widdowson might envision something like small scale fusion reactors that can be placed in neighborhoods or homes that provide lower cost or even free power with electric vehicles taking the place
of gasoline powered vehicles. They might be computer operated and networked but the fact that computers are involved wouldn't be too exciting in this case because the new technology would be getting the attention.
As a secondary point, I think the descent process has less to do with the technology, as some small subset
of the population has always been capable
of producing technology, and more to do with how the technology is used by those outside that subset. The fact that the SEC is watching porn instead
of enforcing regulations or that the NSA is watching Americans instead
of using the technology for some benefit are two
of many examples we read routinely
of misuse
of computer technology.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... nized#p840
Drucker said the real innovation was e-commerce but he was also worried about the demographics. The hard work and thrift he talked about coming ain't happening; at least, I don't see it.
He also made the direct comparison between the steam engine and the computer, as made in your link above. The steam engine produced the railroad and the computer produced e-commerce.
But we don’t just consume calories and gasoline. We also consume information from books and friends, entertainment from superstars and amateurs, expertise from teachers and doctors, and countless other things that are not made of atoms. Technology can bring us more choice and even freedom.
This circles back around to the fact that if consuming all that information results in anything that is economically useful, that would be the desired result, but it's not happening. Just consuming or generating lots
of harmful or useless information like porn or NSA files isn't an end in and
of itself. Some
of the information can increase efficiency but the efficiency increases have to be able to carry the load that the natural increase in quantity and quality
of energy carried for a couple centuries without anyone really thinking about it. Getting the economy 3% or more efficent year after year with better information is a greater challenge than growing energy supplies 3% year after year. If energy supplies deplete it will need to be even more than that.
In spite
of all that I can't find any standard cycle that has operated since the advent
of the modern era that can explain why the stock market would be going higher during a crisis period. The larger cycle
of a coming dark age that Widdowson offers would reside outside
of anything seen in the past 500 years. If there were genuine innovation coming that is capable
of extricating out
of this mess, the authorities would direct their attention toward investment in that rather than directing their attention toward masking an economic decline with money printing and higher stock prices.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.