Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

The reason is that most market participants believe wholeheartedly in the Federal Reserve's ability to stop any slide.

This has many components to it. The Fed's mandate is to control inflation while achieving maximum employment. Looking further, the Fed states that one of their tools for doing this is to keep the long term interest rate low by buying bonds. For a long time, the Fed was apparently able to achieve this. More recently, they have not, despite the increase in bond purchases. This appears to me to be the reason the stock market is stalling a bit, where the S&P 500 is up about 3.5% from the May high and the Dow is about flat.

This is a 2 year chart of the 30 year US treasury bond rate. The treasury rate broke over 3.2% in late May.

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[aedens]

It's caused by a sustained deleveraging that results from a change in underlying fundamentals.

In our area we are close to that cycle since we are regional observors also.

Kuznet generational cycles basically are 20x4 so it rather well fits some modeling varables seen.
I know Mr. Dent was savaged from a few areas but minded his work and of course others
as we see that suit starting to fit. This culture is still in full test crash dummy mode
from the vantage point it would be safe to apply also. The other side of the coin is the fact the crash dummys
willfully will apply chains to children as a matter of plain fact. As for the monthy encyclical values trended,
yes it appears the program has indeed cultured the herd to what they truly are.

notes: http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~easterl/papers/SimonKuznets.pdf

[vincecate]

When the US government bond market collapses (and it has been falling slowly for a year) the stock market will die with it no matter how much QE money flows. The only question is when. The US government bond market is the last firewall. When that firewall goes there will be utter panic.

Many people currently believe the Fed controls interest rates. When the market shows that $85 billion per month does not in fact control interest rates, then people will lose faith in the Fed. The Fed could try to regain control of rates with larger monthly amounts or unlimited monthly amounts. But probably the market will realize this is a desperate move and people will sell faster.

In Japan they increased the money supply by 1.7% in the most recent 10 day period. The central bank seems to be pegging interest rates. People seem to be selling bonds fast. However, so far the rate is not accelerating. I expect them to get to 3% and 4% and 5% in 10 day periods. When we see this faster and faster selling, then the panic has started in Japan. It is not rational to hold 5 year bonds paying 0.2% per year for a 5 year total of about 1% when the money supply is going up by a higher percentage in 10 days. At some point people will panic. I really don't think there is any gentle way out for Japan. It looks like inflation rates in Japan may be high enough in 3-6 month to start a bond panic there, if it has not started before then.

I think a bond crash in either Japan or the USA would crash the US stock market.

[gerald]

Since there is a discussion regarding the market and potential crash and how it relates to various things including lunar and solar eclipses. How about considering the change in direction of particles impacting the solar system? We seem to be in some kind of "transition " Maybe the accepted theories need to change? --- Interstellar Winds Buffeting Our Solar System Have Shifted Direction http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 142837.htm

[Higgenbotham]

Since there is a discussion regarding the market and potential crash and how it relates to various things including lunar and solar eclipses. How about considering the change in direction of particles impacting the solar system? We seem to be in some kind of "transition " Maybe the accepted theories need to change? --- Interstellar Winds Buffeting Our Solar System Have Shifted Direction http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 142837.htm

I put that link to Cowan because he studies planetary alignments and uses those in his forecasts. Several years ago, he published May 21, 2013 as a key date for the stock market based on planetary alignments. Whether it was to be a high, low or indeterminant I don't know but do know it was out there. From what little I have read, I believe those alignments have something to do with particles or charges. Also, and I left this out earlier to conserve space, on those cycles noted between 1929 and 2013, the 1929 low in the stock market of November 13, 1929 corresponds exactly to the May 21, 2013 date of Cowan's if they are aligned using the eclipses. The sun/moon calendar work often agrees with the planetary alignments.

[aedens]

That why we like it here since factors do apply. Meanwhile the rhetorical toolbox to constructive bipartisanship ways are full throttle unleashed again and neuro marketing closed loop response of narrowed provided realities that will save the bankrupted public since it is pointless to resist and for your benefit by the best science with your blue and red ear tags as despondent victims to the silent war as just do it, or instantly beset with the best trained liberal attack guard dogs as we watch with twenty five reasons they run unabated as a disease. Trampled grass and dead blue dogs with party foot prints to kill the plagued fleas as the public is wiped out real time with the new way which of course is in truth the old ways. No one wishes to foster the thought when they doubled there wage yours went down one third and and half benefits lost and now the ACA to take the rest of the public's free cash flow since 1993. Just another leveled property seizure scam to take whats left as we watch the bones being picked clean again, and it is as we speak. A few just got a one year stay of financial execution with property taxes and when asked do you understand the provision on the next step and the simple route your estate equity of status will be they instantly went glassed eyed. Indeed the next wave truly is unleashed here. As for the lunar effect it is academic fodder of attack since as we know four levels of how to destroy that notional and rational value as we use most the time in the real world. One thing we Austrians know is mathematical posturing and adulteration of whole cultures.

[Higgenbotham]

I think the birth rate is the leading fundamental factor that affects the secondary fundamentals. I've heard it said that humans are a growth species programmed to grow. The birth rate shows how well that is happening.

Nobody sells stocks because the birth rate went down last year or has been going down for the past 6 years, but it has. A decline in the birth rate over a number of years will cause things to happen that will cause people to sell stocks later.

That process has been in motion for some time. The more people try to fight that fact, the larger will be the crash when reality must align with the current fantasy.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... rth#p20419

The comparison of the fall in the birth rate since 2007 with the previous falls in the birth rate after 1925 and 1961 are made in the other posts. I don't know how a stock market can be driven up to the level it is now without a 50% crash aligning fantasy with reality taking place over a period of weeks. The US is in a worse place than it was in 2007 but more deluded about where it is than ever.

[aedens]

Numbers indeed equate to gerrymandering and the left behind mentality of live to fight another will not save them either.
I have seen a reset on a cycle locally which is applying to another level now...

So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the pack or be lost...

Trans Pacific Partnerships are like NAFTA on steroids if you missed it and we have the zones identified being
constructed. Funny how the media unsharptons hustlers of news are on these points of actual issues.

As I linked the other night the markets have identified the weak link to the subjugates.

Debt serfs have no rights Higg in this eco zone of the extant constructed so they cannot even fathom today anyway..

[Higgenbotham]

This graphic is from Garrett Jones' Observations of October 16, 2013. I think it states the case very well regarding where the US is now versus 2007.

He also comments: "Our government has literally created a situation where more and more people are dependent on the government (which is broke). So, in reality, it is the employed part of the country that is supporting the government and the unemployed and dependent. This separates America on many levels. The obvious separation is between rich and poor, or, more accurately, between employed and unemployed. The deep concern is that middle group that still has a job but is just making ends meet. Their thought process is constantly evaluating why they should work a 40 hour week when their neighbor doesn’t work at all and has his expenses covered. Consider this carefully because this is the thought process this government is creating. It has happened just like this before in history and it wasn’t in emerging democracies or republics. This is dangerous on every level and it is happening at the only time in the cycle that such policies can have success. The common denominator and the mandatory element that must be present for such policies to succeed is an unaware, ignorant and “dumbed down” population. Like it or not, that is exactly what we have."

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[aedens]

No matter now, the taxpayer gets what it truly deserves. As they say, it puts the lotion on it's skin.
The Western World is on trial and they cannot even understand that fact. They have no idea what
has already been seen.
Also of interest they found a ship of the coast of modern day turkey and the ore came from our mines in
the great lakes. Science is indeed fun at times. Nice thing is for over two decades they called us lunatic
fringe. The people with the fringed garment they killed here are decendants. Indeed people are creatures
to be controlled.