China's fall is certainly beginning. At the very least, their economy is slowing down, meaning that hopes that they can hold the world economy together were overoptimistic. I don't think the world economy can take much more strain, especially since India is in a similar situation.I suspect that the crash is starting. One reason to suspect it is the market is trading below the level it was trading at when China announced the rate cut, which set off an orgy of buying in the futures markets early this morning. When China released their poor PMI last week, the Central Bank immediately put out a bulletin saying more stimulus was forthcoming. That held the market up for a few hours before it dropped. I made a mental note of that and that trend is continuing.
Our housing marker continues to plummet, but the stock market has not, at least not yet. Perhaps when it happens, it'll be over a very short period of time, like 3-6 months.