Financial topics

[John]

> I wish I could bring up some of McEvedy's population maps.

If the map is being displayed on your screen, then you can press the
"Print Screen" button, which copies your screen to the clipboard.
(ALT + "Print Screen" copies only the current window.) Then you can
paste the screen image into a graphic editing program such as mspaint
(Microsoft Paint). Then you can crop the image so that it contains
only the map, and save it as a JPG file.

John

[vincecate]

The eastern empire held together and maintained itself until the mid 1400's when the Ottoman Turks finally put an end to Rome.

It is interesting that the eastern empire went far longer before debasing their coins and they lasted far longer. Debasement does seem to correlate with the end of an empire. I think the US dollar and the US are nearing the end.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantine_coinage
http://encyclopedia-of-money.blogspot.c ... ement.html

[Higgenbotham]

> I wish I could bring up some of McEvedy's population maps.

If the map is being displayed on your screen..

John

John, I bought the Penguin Atlas books back in 1994, and don't have a scanner here.

The eastern empire held together and maintained itself until the mid 1400's when the Ottoman Turks finally put an end to Rome.

It is interesting that the eastern empire went far longer before debasing their coins and they lasted far longer. Debasement does seem to correlate with the end of an empire. I think the US dollar and the US are nearing the end.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantine_coinage
http://encyclopedia-of-money.blogspot.c ... ement.html

What got me to thinking more about the end of the US was my sister recently caught onto the idea of looking at the Florida land boom and the corruption in the banks in the 1920s. This was after you had brought it up during one of our discussions. There's a researcher in her local area who got some of the records of the failed banks after they were unsealed (apparently when a bank fails, at least those banks, the records are sealed for at least 50 years) and wrote a book about the financial corruption that occurred during the Florida real estate boom and bust.

So she was describing this to me and asked if what's going on today is like what went on then. I told her I used to think that; in other words, I used to think that we were in a Depression similar to the 1930s. But I told her I no longer believe that now because instead of allowing the banks to fail, the banks were propped up and now entire countries are failing because of that. I said when banks are allowed to fail that is a Depression but when political systems fail to discharge their responsibilities of taking insolvent banks through bankruptcy before the black holes of insolvency destroy the system, that is not a Depression, but a Dark Age. I was surprised at how readily she could see that point of view and come to agreement on it. She did make the point, though, that many of the insolvent Florida banks remained in operation for a number of years before they failed, as many as 5 years as I recall. That was news to me. In other words, by finally having the records, this researcher was able to determine that many of these banks were insolvent for years before they failed and the bank employees and regulators covered it up. Our overall conclusion, though, was that while the generational behaviors during the Florida land boom and bust and today's banking crisis are similar, the outcome won't be and that a catastrophic outcome is more likely than not because of the apparent scale of the current insolvency.

[vincecate]

But I told her I no longer believe that now because instead of allowing the banks to fail, the banks were propped up and now entire countries are failing because of that.

"Fractional reserve banking", or "long term loans backed by demand deposits" runs into trouble regularly. Governments bail out banks often. After that they get sovereign debt crises, then the central banks bail out the government, then you get a currency crisis. This is the normal pattern. The question is just how bad is the currency crisis. Will the currency be devalued by 50% or destroyed completely. I think we are in for a really bad one where many currencies are destroyed.

http://pair.offshore.ai/38yearcycle/#banksgobust

[Higgenbotham]

But I told her I no longer believe that now because instead of allowing the banks to fail, the banks were propped up and now entire countries are failing because of that.

"Fractional reserve banking", or "long term loans backed by demand deposits" runs into trouble regularly. Governments bail out banks often. After that they get sovereign debt crises, then the central banks bail out the government, then you get a currency crisis. This is the normal pattern. The question is just how bad is the currency crisis. Will the currency be devalued by 50% or destroyed completely. I think we are in for a really bad one where many currencies are destroyed.

http://pair.offshore.ai/38yearcycle/#banksgobust

If a political unit fails then it won't be issuing a currency at all, so the currency will be destroyed completely.

What's your current time frame for when you expect the US dollar to be destroyed? That seems to be the sticking point every time we circle back around to this topic. Or do you think the time frame is not really that important because you will do the same thing regardless - hold gold and silver indefinitely.

[vincecate]

If a political unit fails then it won't be issuing a currency at all, so the currency will be destroyed completely.

What's your current time frame for when you expect the US dollar to be destroyed? That seems to be the sticking point every time we circle back around to this topic. Or do you think the time frame is not really that important because you will do the same thing regardless - hold gold and silver indefinitely.

Often the failing of the currency causes the failing of the government. Really the US Federal government is powerful because it can spend twice what it gets in taxes by printing money. If nobody accepted that money they could not buy all the votes they do, pay for the military they have, or make the states do what they want them to. When the dollar fails the federal government probably will too.

I think the dollar collapse is getting really close, like more than 50% chance of starting hyperinflation (5+% inflation per month) within 2 years. I don't really know when and, as you say, the steps to take don't depend on the exact date. Along with gold and silver, I also fully believe in food storage and weapons.

I would love to have a solar powered single family seastead before things really fall apart. As none of these have every been built yet, and it would cost a bunch, the more time there is till the collapse the better.

http://wiki.seasteading.org/index.php/S ... y_Seastead
http://wiki.seasteading.org/index.php/Seastead

[John]

Here are some nice places to live in the middle of the ocean:





http://appliedimpossibilies.blogspot.co ... -ship.html

The rest of the earth may be destroyed by nuclear war, but your family
will be snug in your Flip Ship.

John

[vincecate]

The rest of the earth may be destroyed by nuclear war, but your family
will be snug in your Flip Ship.

I can't save the rest of the world. If I can save my family I will be very happy.

Here is more my thinking:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4icNUDqNIg

[Higgenbotham]

I think the dollar collapse is getting really close, like more than 50% chance of starting hyperinflation (5+% inflation per month) within 2 years.

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see a very quick and severe deflation that ends in late 2012 and then if the politics don't change for there to be serious inflation by the end of 2013.

I don't really know and, as you say, the steps to take don't depend on the exact date.

Your philosophy reminds me of Dr Franz Pick as described his booklet called The Triumph of Gold. This was written in 1985. I'm looking through it again now. Much of what you write is very similar. It seems like Pick said somewhere in the booklet that people should buy gold and sit on it; the posterior is very good for the preservation of wealth.

http://www.amazon.com/Triumph-Gold-Fran ... 0916373037

[vincecate]

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see a very quick and severe deflation that ends in late 2012 and then if the politics don't change for there to be serious inflation by the end of 2013.

I don't think there ever has been or ever will be a severe deflation of a pure fiat currency. Back in the 1920s and 1930s the Fed was legally limited to $2.50 in paper money in circulation for every $1 worth of gold they held. As people trusted them with gold in the 1920s they printed lots of money and as people realized they were not thrustworthy in the 1930s they took their gold out till the Fed was effectively bankrupt. As gold went out they had to reduce the money supply and cause deflation. This is not going to happen now as there is no gold backing at all.

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2010/11 ... ndard.html

Your philosophy reminds me of Dr Franz Pick as described his booklet called The Triumph of Gold. This was written in 1985. I'm looking through it again now. Much of what you write is very similar.

I wish I had this outlook back in 1985! I just ordered the book on Amazon. Thanks.