Financial topics

[richard5za]

If the S&P can continue to rise this week, I will scale back into short S&P. Short S&P is the trade I would prefer to concentrate on with the S&P having moved up 33 points today to 1210

Check your charts: I think 1210 may be a resistance / support point. In other words a decisive break up through 1210 may signify a minor rally to come. I personally think that the S&P won't decisively break up through 1210 but will fall to the next support level.

Having said all this, I am not shorting the S&P - its your money at risk not mine

[richard5za]

Bulls and Bears

With respect to stock markets: If you define bull markets and bear markets as follows:

A bear market starts with a much higher PE ratio than long term average, and ends with a much lowewr PE ratio than long term average
A bull market starts with a low PE ratio and ends with one that is much higher than long term average

Then analysing the Dow, in the 100 year period 1900 through to 2000 there were 4 bull and 4 bear markets, perhaps secular cycles is a better term than markets.

The first 20 years of the twentieth century was a bear market, and since 2000 we have been in a bear market.

Its probably coincidence that 1900 through to 1920 was a bear, beacuse it looks like the same might happen in the 21st century.

I really yearn for those bull market days again. Investing was simpler then.
Richard

[Higgenbotham]

Covered all short silver positions at 40.77 (entry was 42.22).

If the S&P can continue to rise this week, I will scale back into short S&P.

Short silver again from 41.50. Break even on the trade is to 42.95 and I will risk part of that.

I will scale short into S&P if it can rise into a late week high. September 1 is my ideal cycle high based on daily charts. I have no specific price targets.

[richard5za]

Short silver again from 41.50. Break even on the trade is to 42.95 and I will risk part of that.

Dear Higgie,

Thou art a "trader".
May you make a bundle!

Richard

[Higgenbotham]

Covered all short silver positions at 40.77 (entry was 42.22).

If the S&P can continue to rise this week, I will scale back into short S&P.

Short silver again from 41.50. Break even on the trade is to 42.95 and I will risk part of that.

I will scale short into S&P if it can rise into a late week high. September 1 is my ideal cycle high based on daily charts. I have no specific price targets.

Covered all short silver at 41.40.

The S&P continues to rise and I want to sharpen my teeth and get ready to short the S&P.

Richard, I made $500 today on that 10 cent move but better than nothing.

Stocks weakened toward the end of the day and failed to hold above important levels. Futures weakened further after the cash close.

[jcsok]

Scaled into 50% position short ES. Sold at 1186.50, 1194, 1203.50, 1217.50. Also short euro, yen, crude, and feeder cattle.

[richard5za]

Richard, I made $500 today on that 10 cent move but better than nothing.

Well done, Higgie. That annualises at about $ 120 000

I suspect that I am seeing a continued flight out of general equities into gold, harder currencies, USA govt bonds, and perhaps silver. Perhaps flight is the wrong word because its not generalised; I get the feeling that some people are quietly moving their investment so as not to create a disturbance. Time will tell.

[Higgenbotham]

Well done, Higgie. That annualises at about $ 120 000.

Since I started trading full time in November 2002, I've saved $349,000. Trading is my sole source of income. The fact that I can save more trading than working as an engineer is a sad commentary, especially considering that I graduated summa cum laude from a top engineering school.

If the S&P really goes on a tear, the mid July dip might be tested. For now, I will watch. This morning's move over the top of yesterday's candle in the futures looks bullish.

I won't put out any further shorts in silver, as the setup I outlined didn't bring in a lot of weakness.

[Higgenbotham]

From August 4:

Just covered all shorts again 40 points lower from where they were when I posted this last trade (S&P is now 1225).

Edit: I will now wait once again for a rebound of a few days or weeks.

Just went 15% short from S&P 1230 equivalent.

[richard5za]

Trading is my sole source of income

Higgie,
As I said recently "you are a trader" The fact that you qualified as an engineer is not relevant, and the summa cum laude means that you have a great brain, and can apply yourself, not an enthusiastic engineer.
In fact doing an engineering degree may have been a good foundation in logic and method but was probably a misfit.
Personal view,Higgie.
Richard