Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Sort of, but I do think there are some subtle differences. The generational dynamics xenophobia observations seem accurate and xenophobia looks to have arrived in America.

A phobia is an unreasonable fear of something. "Xenophobia" is an unreasonable fear of outsiders.

So I object to your casual use of the term "xenophobia" in this context of generational cycles. I can believe that there are generational cycles of tolerance for a certain amount of outsiders settling in a people's territory, but it is unfair and insulting to call these very real and very reasonable concerns "xenophobia".

I think this is accurate insofar as what you said.

Within the context of John's discussions of xenophobia and the generational dynamics theory (google for generational dynamics xenophobia), the emphasis on not on whether the fear is reasonable or unreasonable. The emphasis is on whether actions taken against foreigners or those who are different are increasing in frequency and intensity, and what the response is.

Taking the LA riots as a small example, the response was basically summed up by Rodney King's famous phrase, "Can't we all just get along?" or Reginald Denny hugging the guy who smashed his head in on national television. With regard to today's flash mob incidents, that has not been the response at all.

[Higgenbotham]

Recall that a Crisis catalyst involves scenarios distinctly imaginable eight or ten years in advance. Based on recent Unraveling-era trends, the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible:

...(other scenarios listed)...

An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.

While our recent series of events are similar, they still did not rise to the severity that Strauss and Howe laid out as potential circa-2005 Crisis catalysts. Is this no longer America? Have 5 centuries of Western Civilization collapsed?

Every circle of time has a great moment of discontinuity.

The saeculum's last quardrant does not require total war, but it does require a major discontinuity or ekpyrosis - the death of an old order and the rebirth of something new.

The spirit of America comes once a saeculum, only through what the ancients called ekpyrosis, nature's fiery moment of death and discontinuity. History's periodic eras of Crisis combust the old social order and give birth to a new.

The Fourth Turning is history's great discontinuity. It ends one epoch and begins another.

[Higgenbotham]

Third, this so called racial flash mob nonsense has been going on for decades.

Sort of, but I do think there are some subtle differences. The generational dynamics xenophobia observations seem accurate and xenophobia looks to have arrived in America.

No, that is the least of our problems here in America.

The generational dynamics xenophobia observations (as I understand them) say that increasing xenophobia is indicative of a Fourth Turning. I'm not using the term xenophobia to irritate people; I'm using it because that's the word John has used dozens of times to describe similar phenomena.

As to whether it's a problem or not, I think xenophobia (and more broadly, social chaos) will continue to grow exponentially so long as Bernanke's policies are allowed to suck wealth out of poor communities (and nations) into Washington and Wall Street. I see QE2 as the catalyst that has turned something that was previously nonexistent or minor into a major problem. I blame Bernanke directly for the food price inflation and chaos in the Arab world, and that chaos has now arrived in the US. If more QE is done or transfer payments get cut, then the chaos will increase.

[RDRUNR]

I always tell people they need to read John's site here, and say "THIS is the smartest guy I've ever read on the internet", it's not a complement I toss around lightly or to many.

About Weimar hyperinflation. I agree with John, there won't be any hyperinflation and in fact like John says I agree, we are all in for a deflationary period.

I get a laugh when I hear people talking about "Weimar hyperinflation" and they have NEVER VISITED the Berlin (Germany) History museum. You can read (and see) all about Weimar hyperinflation there and it there were MUCH MORE things attached to it than the value of the Deutsche Mark! What the media (and gold bugs) is trying to do is attach the US dollar and debt to what happend in Germany. Let me tell you from someone who has BEEN to the Berlin History Museum there is not enough connection and unless Mr. O turns into or you vote in a Mr. H and US attitudes change to those in 1920's Germany...

To sum up, John is a very smart fellow, one who should be highly respected for his opinions.

[OLD1953]

The last time I linked to a calculated M3 chart for the years since the Fed quit publishing the figures, I pointed out that the total M3 had dropped by a trillion and a half, and then was held in place moving at about the same constant level, and that was totally due to the QE push by the Fed. If M3 was rising to the level or above the level it was at in 2006-2007, then we would have a legitimate worry about high inflation, but it isn't and it hasn't - the last time I looked was a few weeks ago, and I'm quite certain we haven't added a trillion or two in that short period.

As I also showed in that post about college loans, actual household debt is dropping, IFF you discount student loans. Given that the current student loan mess is creating incentives for the well educated to leave the US, and that new technologies require intelligent and educated people to do the work in those fields, the US is in great danger of becoming a backwater of civilization, unless policies change somewhere. Either the company hiring policies change to reflect real knowledge instead of relying on paper, the university system is reformed whether from within or by fiat of the states or federal government, or there is some alternative educational system created which has equivalent rank to the university system, but something has to give way or the US will not be a leader much longer.

[vincecate]

So believe what you want guys. But what I'm telling you is that if you
think that your debts are going to be bailed out by inflation, you're
dead wrong, and you will pay for it.

As silver has gone from $12 to $43 over the last 2 years my long term options on SLV have gone up by much more. So I am not paying for being wrong so far.

The problem with your "gold will go back to $300" view is that you do not adjust for inflation. As I keep pointing out, and you never respond to, it makes as much sense to say "gold was $35 so it should go back to that" or even "gold was $20 for 200 years so ...". It is as if you think the value of the dollar is still constant, like it was when the dollar was defined as an ounce of silver. However, over the last 40 or 80 years the compound inflation has greatly changed the value of the dollar. Any attempt to analyze the price of gold without adjusting for the decreasing value of the dollar is horribly flawed.

Here is a much better look at gold and trying to compensate for the falling value of the dollar:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05 ... 71906.html

[jdcpapa]

Good morning all,

but something has to give way or the US will not be a leader much longer.

As I posted: IMHO the US is backed in a corner.

No matter where I turn, the negative forces of nature are pushing down on my beloved country. We dare not print any more money; but we must. We must have smaller government; but we can't. At the local level we are reaching out to the public to offer "welfare" benefits (Aedens post). We have no money and we are going "door to door" to offer "welfare"?..............for those who qualify, of course. The only thing left is the "shouting" by the 60% who are either to busy watching "dancing with the stars" to be bothered or are in denial. But we may be seeing symptoms of their discontent!

The POTUS asks us to tone done the rhetoric for the sake of country. Maxine Waters (D) California says: "the tea party can go to straight to hell"! Do ya think that could incite a little flash Mob violence?

Have a hectic!

[jdcpapa]

The same goes for the feelings of those like myself who do not care to have 20 or 30 million Mexicans establishing colonies in the Southwest USA, who do not care to see Dearborn and other areas of Michigan become colonies of the Middle East, who do not care to have colonies of Somalis and South Asians establishing themselves in cities that were previously peaceful, safe, prosperous areas of white Americans, who do not care to see our tech industries and our science graduate schools taken over by Asian Indians and Chinese. Our concerns are reasonable. They are not "phobias". We are looking at the situation with no rose-colored glasses, with our eyes wide open, and recognizing the truth that when more than one significant racial/ethnic/cultural population shares the same territory, they begin to fight for control. It is natural, it is built into us, and it cannot be changed or waved away with progressive idealism.

So I object to your casual use of the term "xenophobia" in this context of generational cycles. I can believe that there are generational cycles of tolerance for a certain amount of outsiders settling in a people's territory, but it is unfair and insulting to call these very real and very reasonable concerns "xenophobia".

The generational dynamics xenophobia observations (as I understand them) say that increasing xenophobia is indicative of a Fourth Turning. I'm not using the term xenophobia to irritate people; I'm using it because that's the word John has used dozens of times to describe similar phenomena.

Hypothetical: This country is being populated by immigrants (as it has been for 200 years) who threaten our way of life thereby causing fear; is that threat or fear "unreasonable"? Likewise, this country is being populated by immigrants, because of the Baby Boomer vaccuum, who threaten our way of life thereby causing fear, is that fear reasonable? Maxine Waters (D) California makes the statement: ".....Tea party can go straight to hell" (because she is threatened or has fear, is that fear reaonable? Is it xenophobia?)

Frankly, I do not take any of the views on this forum personally ie I am not irritated or insulted. I welcome the diversity of opinion. Sometimes we agree to disagree. Thank you all!

[jdcpapa]

Yes, you have. HIgh prices on objects of speculation have a wonderful way of animating a discussion. Anybody want to talk about real estate or oil tonight? Tulip bulbs?

Would you care to opine as to the reason why housing values are increasing in South Florida?

Sure. If you take Miami (I assume that's the example you're citing) sale prices per square foot are down 3.7% year over year but prices per unit are up 2.5%:

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/FL-Mia ... 8%26el%3D0

This typically happens in a bust because as inventory increases and sales decrease buyers can get a lot better quality house for their money. So they tend to buy houses that are a bit larger and in better beighborhoods because they can pay a lot less per square foot.

Great explanation! Thanks!

[richard5za]

The Party
New home sales are heading for the worst year in half a century and as I write S&P 500 is up 1.37%
It seems that the market is looking for Bernanke to announce on Friday that QE3 will pump in liquidity, and so the party goes on.
If you've read the book "When money dies" by Adam Fergusson, Bernanke reminds me of that mad German central banker who printed and printed and printed! The Germans lost their savings twice in 25 years, 1923 and 1948.