I have no strongly held views and no new ideas. It's still my guess that 4200 should cap this market and maybe 4000 will do it.richard5za wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:03 amHiggenbotham wrote: Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:22 am By being short, I am trading against the 8 traders I've talked about who are normally right about market direction. That's not something I want to do very often.
Meanwhile, I'm continuing to build shorts as the market rises.
Would be very interested in any additional views you may have
I would not be long any stocks here, even if it looks like some kind of extreme low in this or that individual stock. Bitcoin is back down to 16K tonight and I would not be long that either.
I've seen talk about how FTX could be the next Lehman. To me, FTX looks more on the scale of Bear Stearns and their MBS. Those were a few billion also when they went belly up in July 2007. The problem with that kind of thing is not the few billion. It's that it influences the whole market for the particular thing like MBS or in this case crypto or maybe stated more properly indicates the whole market has been influenced. The difference between now and July 2007 is the Fed has no room to move or it's at least much more questionable that they can. You might remember a previous post where I documented what Bernanke was told in August 2007 by PIMCO and others. They told him in August 2007 with the S&P about 13% off the July high (which happened the same week the Bear Stearns MBS funds went belly up) that he had better drop rates by morning or the Dow would be down another thousand points. There was no question he could do that and he did. Doing so some weeks or months from now in the midst of a meltdown could cause more damage than it fixes.