vincecate wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 9:20 pm
Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:37 pm
Today I started nibbling on Bitcoin. Probably it has more (down) to go, but the Bankman-Fried story is enough to get me started. I looked at the 1 year log chart for this one.
If it makes a huge whipsaw up after the CPI report I'll probably get out, but the sentiment seems kind
of extreme now.
Long term I love Bitcoin. Short term it could easily get much more extreme. In 2017 it got to about $20,000 and then in 2020 it got down to around $3,000. If the market crashes, as I expect, I think Bitcoin will go down further. I am not selling my Bitcoin but my S&P puts should hedge that risk for me.
Yes, the 2 previous corrections were about 80-85 percent and about a year. We aren't there yet on either time or price, but when it got to about $20,000 it had gone up almost 100 fold from the previous low and when it got to $69,000 it had gone up about 20 fold.
An extremely conservative trader would probably wait. A conservative trader might buy a little, maybe 1-2%
of their account. By those measures, you could call me a swinging riverboat gambler. Today I put in about 1/3
of what I am willing to max out at if it just goes straight down from here.
Here's someone who was a lot more specific than me on how many days and how much Bitcoin has corrected in the past. I'm just a dart throwing monkey in this case, really.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cry ... key-cryptoWhile the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.