Financial topics

[Cool Breeze]

Vince, do you not feel uneasy about decentralised finance when the running of modern industrialised countries requires a central banking system for management of the economy? If the various forms of Defi take up even a small percentage of the money supply the whole modernised world will make their business to bring it under centalised management? There may well be short term gains, or even medium term, but the long term?

Gold is different; its part of the money supply and held by all central banks

A big part of the power of governments spending ability comes from printing money. Bitcoin takes that power away from them. Governments will miss that power, in particular the USA. So governments will/are fighting Bitcoin. I don't see any real way they can stop it. Outlawing drugs has more chance of working than outlawing Bitcoin as there is something physical regular cops can see, but they really have no luck with that. Different countries have tried outlawing Bitcoin at different times and had little luck.

If governments make laws they have no ability to enforce it reduces the populations respect for the government. Too much of that is dangerous to the government.

They will make CBDCs and tell people to use them, and for some transactions people will, but I expect long term saving to still go to Bitcoin. It will be easy for them to tax CBDCs and harder and harder to tax Bitcoin. Bitcoin has powerful tools for privacy that will become easier to use and more common over time (see "submarine swaps" and "coinjoin"). So governments won't be able to track Bitcoin or know how much you have, so confiscating or taxing won't be possible. As more and more people understand how much safer they are using Bitcoin than regular banks and fiat money, the demand and usage will keep going up.

Here is a video I did 13 years ago with my kids about the USA printing money and the world accepting it for real things. I really think this is changing now as many countries seem to be reducing their treasury purchases or selling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYSHhNcKzKE

Even if Bitcoin was just used for international payments, it would shoot up. If a few countries blocked from SWIFT start accepting it for oil, then I think eventually the world is using it for many things. I think it will happen because it is the best way around SWIFT.

Also, as Vince suggests, you just don't need a ton of adoption of this type of insurance policy (if it doesn't become a reserve asset let's say) to be a big winner in the coming world, you just need a good amount, which is baked in the cake already. I don't see why anyone else doesn't see this but my best guess is that they are oldies with recency bias and legacy unbelief compared to what always "was the case" yesteryear. That is common with technology. Now you have tech and totally corrupt governments. Even old people will finally admit their fake dreams of retirement and pension are the gubmint's fault. At least some, if not all.

Just like with gold (that is far more manipulated), now is the time to buy if you like it, since it is generally disliked. BTC is literally near its all time low for this cycle. I personally think it goes to 15ish, so I'll wait because it seems fairly obvious we have one more leg down AND you all know I already positioned for the future. It's literally a no brainer, since it will cycle into the madness and be a much bigger gainer. The miners will probably even go higher if you are into a trade for 1-2 years.

[Higgenbotham]

A company hoping to help California with its high-speed rail built one in North Africa instead, saying the region was ‘less politically dysfunctional’

Hannah Getahun
Sun, October 9, 2022 at 8:52 PM·3 min read

A French state-owned railroad operator wanted to help California with its high-speed rail project.

The company left after the state refused to listen to its recommendations, The New York Times reported.

"SNCF was very angry," Dan McNamara, a project manager for SNCF, told the Times.

The Société nationale des chemins de fer français (SNCF), a French state-owned railroad operator, came to California in hopes of helping the state build a high-speed rail system from Los Angeles to San Francisco but left for North Africa in 2011 because the region was 'less politically dysfunctional' than the Golden State.

Within 7 years, they built a functioning high-speed rail system in Morocco, the New York Times reported.

California sought to have the first high-speed rail system in the country, but a new report from the Times showed political disagreement on the train's route slowed the ambitious project to a near halt — and raised construction costs by billions.

The bullet train system, first proposed in the 1980s, would transport passengers between LA and San Francisco in 2 hours and 40 minutes. The project, approved by a 2008 vote, was meant to cost $33 billion and be completed by 2020.

Cut to 2022 and the California Speed Rail Authority now estimates the cost will be $113 billion, the Times reported.

Dan McNamara, a project manager for SNCF, told the Times after recommendations made by the company were ignored by the state the company decided to pull out.

"There were so many things that went wrong," McNamara told the Times. "SNCF was very angry. They told the state they were leaving for North Africa, which was less politically dysfunctional."

https://news.yahoo.com/company-hoping-h ... 11264.html

Now they're leaving California for Texas. Good luck, Texas; you're going to need it.

They had already screwed everyone outside California with technical bulletin 117 before spreading themselves and their insanity outside the state. I was in a Lazy Boy furniture store about 3 years ago. The salesman said he had worked there about 7 years. At some point as we were close to closing the sale I asked him if it would be OK to turn the chair over and look at the tag. I said the purpose would be to see if it had any flame retardants in it (per California technical bulletin 117). He said I was the first customer who had ever discussed that with him and that he wasn't aware of such a thing. The tag showed that piece of furniture didn't contain any flame retardants.

[Higgenbotham]

Why Netflix's 'Dahmer' series has sparked a backlash online

True crime may be entertaining for some, but it's retraumatising for the victims' families.

https://mashable.com/article/jeffery-da ... ticism-why


There has been a slew of articles like this and it made me suspicious. Many of these articles also made the point that there was nothing new to see, so why is another portrayal of Dahmer being done? Therefore, I decided to watch the series to see if there was really nothing new here.

I was living in Wisconsin when the Dahmer news broke and saw quite a bit of it. But this new series contained something I hadn't been aware of - that Dahmer's mother was on many many many prescription medications from early in her pregnancy with Jeffery, and that likely contributed heavily to the creation of this monster and all the pain and trauma that came with it.

Big Pharma already has multiple PR problems and this series adds to it with new information, at least new to a lot of people.

Lionel Dahmer said his ex-wife, Joyce Flint, who has been hospitalized twice for depression, took powerful sedatives and hormones when she was pregnant.

'My ex-wife had been taking about 26 tablets of different medications about one month after becoming pregnant,' he said...

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1992/02/19 ... 698475600/

[vincecate]

The S&P closed below the 200 week moving average today. Could be triggering to some people...

[Higgenbotham]

Below is my account value for the past 6 months. The big spikes down near the beginning and end are where I drew money out. Between the days where I drew money out 5 waves up are marked in red, with wave 3 being the longest in time and greatest in increase. The wave 4 drawdown is where I started going short at 4100 too early as discussed here at that time.

After making 5 waves up, it's time to be cautious because a big correction can come. Right now I think about what would be a conservative amount to trade, then I cut that in half. This is can be seen at the beginning of April and this month, where equity grew very slowly as I got more conservative trying to avoid a big correction.

I'm trying to make sure to stay on the plus side and build a new wave 1. I have no position.



It's interesting to me that most of the 8 traders I follow closely (mentioned before) seem very anxious to buy a low soon or already have, and they have no hesitation to call out where they think that low will be (3200 and up). Only 2 of the 8 traders I follow are both bearish and not calling out a target for a price low. Since this crew is mostly right, one possible scenario I see is that the market actually does bottom soon, rallies enough to make the buyers appear correct, then crashes when the coming low is taken out, probably after this month.

[Tom Mazanec]

The threat of a freight railroad strike is back
Chris Isidore Vanessa Yurkevich
By Chris Isidore and Vanessa Yurkevich, CNN Business
Updated 1:28 PM EDT, Tue October 11, 2022
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/10/business ... ike-threat

[Higgenbotham]

The turnaround in Alibaba stock just now is notable. Up over 2% from the low in just 5 minutes.

[vincecate]

CPI ESTIMATES FOR TOMORROW

CREDIT SUISSE 8%
BARCLAYS 8%
SCOTIABANK 8.1%
NOMURA 8.1%
BMO 8.1%
CIBC 8.1%
BANK OF AMERICA 8.1%
GOLDMAN SACHS 8.1%
GURGAVIN CAPITAL 8.1%
JP MORGAN 8.1%
MORGAN STANLEY 8.1%
STANDARD CHARTERED 8.1%
WELLS FARGO 8.1%
JEFFERIES 8.1%
TD SECURTIES 8.2%

[Higgenbotham]

PepsiCo signals resilient demand as price increases boost forecasts

By Ananya Mariam Rajesh

Oct 12 (Reuters) - PepsiCo Inc (PEP.O) on Wednesday raised its annual forecasts for revenue and profit on the back of fresh price increases for its sodas and snacks to battle runaway costs while signaling resilient demand.

Shares rose 4% after the company also beat third-quarter estimates that comes amid gloomy expectations for corporate results due to surging inflation and rising interest rates. Rival Coca-Cola (KO.N), set to report on Oct. 25, advanced 2%.

PepsiCo's domination of the carbonated drinks market with Coca-Cola (KO.N) has helped it raise prices with little impact on demand, while a shift to eating more at home than at restaurants has buffered its snacks business.

"In stressful times, we're kind of the affordable luxury, so a simple snack or a beverage... is a relatively small amount of money," Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston told Reuters.

"We see our consumer as being continuing to be remarkably healthy," he said.

Higher prices boosted revenue across all segments, especially in its biggest two units of North America beverage and Frito-Lay. Average prices jumped 17% for the quarter ended Sept. 3, while organic volume slipped 1%.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail ... 022-10-12/

Hugh Johnston said in the earnings call that PepsiCo intends to price through inflation, which implies to me that if they see input costs rise, they will match that on the back end. Therefore, if average prices jumped 17% for this quarter, that is the inflation PepsiCo saw in their input costs.

My interest is in how much their volumes decreased as a result of that. It turns out not much yet. Years ago, I had predicted it would be more significant and that it would take less inflation to collapse throughputs (or what they are calling organic volume) than it actually has. While the market is taking the PepsiCo news as good news today, and it is to some extent, the trend of what inflation is doing to throughputs is pretty unmistakable. I'll be watching this quarter's earnings to see what other consumer product companies are experiencing and whether they have weathered this as well as PepsiCo. My guess is not; I also seem to recall Hugh saying they took about 2% market share to keep their throughput loss at that 1% level.

[richard5za]

Below is my account value for the past 6 months. The big spikes down near the beginning and end are where I drew money out. Between the days where I drew money out 5 waves up are marked in red, with wave 3 being the longest in time and greatest in increase. The wave 4 drawdown is where I started going short at 4100 too early as discussed here at that time.

After making 5 waves up, it's time to be cautious because a big correction can come. Right now I think about what would be a conservative amount to trade, then I cut that in half. This is can be seen at the beginning of April and this month, where equity grew very slowly as I got more conservative trying to avoid a big correction.

It's interesting to me that most of the 8 traders I follow closely (mentioned before) seem very anxious to buy a low soon or already have, and they have no hesitation to call out where they think that low will be (3200 and up). Only 2 of the 8 traders I follow are both bearish and not calling out a target for a price low. Since this crew is mostly right, one possible scenario I see is that the market actually does bottom soon, rallies enough to make the buyers appear correct, then crashes when the coming low is taken out, probably after this month.

If you take the entire bull market from March 2020 then a 50% retracement is around 3500 and a 61.8 % retracement is around 3200. Yes I think that the market will bound from somewhere between 50% and 61,8% and it could be a strong bounce. Today may be ugly - I will be at my computer waiting to trade it!!