richard5za wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:27 am
Dear Higg and Cool,
I am not following the logic on the Doomsday arguement.
Say I don't believe in the doomsady scenario: That doesn't mean that Bitcoin will succeed. There must be other reasons for it to succeed or fail.
If I do believe in the doomsday scenario then that doesn't mean Bitcoin will succeed or fail any better than other asset classes. What if there is no doomsday internet or equivelent?
If I say Bitcoin will succeed because certain famously successful people believe this then we are assuming that the circumstances and logic that made them famous will prevail and cause them to be right on Bitcoin. But at the speed at which the world is changing is this a reasonable assumption?
And then we have the uncomfortable historical research that shows that economic and political experts are less accurate in their predictions than a dart throwing chimp. So maybe these famously successful people only have feet
of clay?
In the case
of this website we seem to have found a methodology which makes predictions easier, but
of course there cannot be timing to the forecast!
One thing we can learn from history is that when there have been massive upwards valuations
of assets, and this is coupled with impassioned arguements for and against then put your FOMO somewhere else (Fear
Of Missing Out) and get the hell out
of there
richard, these are really good questions. I get a chance to clarify even further since you are asking questions and the obfuscators sadly mix the concepts (or make up their own fantasy
of what I state - this is common and I can't understand why since clearly they have command
of the English language), which I have been clear about. So I will address them, yet again:
My struggle here for months has been to get people to consider that since we don't know the future, we can only assign probabilities to what any
of many different outcomes might be. No one is God, and beyond the fact that there are paradoxes in the universe that are all contingent on probability anyway, so we therefore are foolish to think we
know what is going to happen. Being God even is irrelevant because ultimately this world will fade away and we won't worry about it - in a changed realm outside
of created things like time and space, the eternal now already realizes "what happened." Anyway, back to us. Just like in investing, probabilities have to be considered, and some are better at doing this than others, that's why we have better investors than others. Within the margin
of error and risk is why someone who is wrong about eventuality X survives over time, and why he strategizes accordingly (see Taleb - don't get blown up). Thinking that it's all over and doomsday is going to happen for sure WIPES YOU OUT
of the scenarios that really weren't all that doomsday, when if you get through something bad but not awful or horrible, you can position yourself on the other side, rather than just having foodstuffs and a bunker, but no surviving wealth, bitcoin, ability to move to the new place that is not ruined, etc. This should be a fairly basic concept to the wise man. What proves the point is that if it's going to be so horrible anyway, who even cares about planning for it?
Ok, from here, doomsday doesn't mean BTC succeeds, correct. These are unrelated concepts. But if the quality
of the "bad times coming" (I've never denied that this is a major possibility, or even likely, to be sure) is in a digital realm (that's what's happening) increasingly, you have some optionality that is outside
of the world order that is repressing its people by controlling banks and currencies. BTC is tailor made for what central banks are doing to their people (if you want freedom) and an answer for social mistrust
of governments around the world - it is literally the only thing that can keep them honest at this point (they've stacked gold and can set prices for it, if you haven't noticed). Those are the reasons why it succeeds. It is untouchable by governments in its essence. They can do NOTHING about its value. They can alter fiat and even gold derivatives or pricing, and have, at their will. Are you beginning to see what I'm saying?
Additionally, I do not argue that BTC "will succeed because other [smart, rich] people believe it". I never have. I say the opposite. I say it will succeed because
of its characteristics as the soundest money
of all time, and although I don't believe it will be currency, it will be the only un-impairable asset, as Saylor argues. Rich, smart people believe in BTC because
of its characteristics. So the critics again get that backward. They also then have to answer why rich, smart people would be involved at all if it is what they characterize it as - a tulip bubble or some other childish idea.
Quickly on the tulip bubble, which is the most embarrassing comparison these emotional hater posters put forth: The tulip thing was overstated, but even if you don't believe that, the nail in the coffin for the stupidity in comparison is that the "tulip bubble" - or any other bubble akin, lasted all
of 1 year? Maybe 1.5. It didn't even bankrupt anyone, but it proved itself a bubble, yes. What has bitcoin done? It's only been around for 10+ years and while it has gone up and down, it never died. And it continued gaining steam. That's why it is here to stay. The network effects can only be denied, and the intrinsic qualities
of it, by people who don't know what it is or care to learn, because they draw conclusions and then run their mouths. That's why they can't ever answer why it has no value or intrinsic value, as if we don't have countless examples anyway
of fiat (which are worthless) that utilize non-tangible factors for media
of exchange and even, for a time, store
of value. It's breathtakingly ignorant stuff to deny this
fact.
Ultimately, if the PE and other (paper) assets are majorly inflated, and they are, the question becomes, where do you store value? Bonds? LOL. Stocks? LOL. Gold or other commodities. Maybe. But go look at gold, or any other asset that you can think
of and compare it to BTC for 10 years. Then bow down.
Seriously, it'll be the funniest thing in the world when BTC is 15, 20 years old and the chicken littles are still screaming "bubble, bubble!" while it is 6 or 7 figures in USD value. Sheesh, by that time, USD might not even be a major player, anymore. Who knows.