Financial topics

[aeden]

Treasury rates are rising.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... data=yield

h4 of kinetic energy and Hussman is being beat up because He is two steps ahead of the many.
The base money supply can only save the first use only so long duping the unwary to the inflation targeting mush.

[Higgenbotham]

It looks like the market is trying to decide its polarity into the window. This window may be quite important.

This morning I took $475 out in 2 hours on the confusion. If anyone wants to see it, I'll post it. Otherwise, I'll just try to post the summary for the week over the weekend.

The point here being, that, yes, the individual operator can still take money out of the market with just the human brain as his only tool, but if the market is being irrationally pushed 1-2% per month in an economy that is growing 10 times slower than that, it will not be possible to (safely) beat the market.

Another point I would make that is a huge big picture point. For exactly that reason, the herd has capitulated to being fully invested in index funds (read a few Boglehead threads). They may be right for awhile longer, but it is very unlikely they will be right over some time period that consists of the span of time that they need to be right (like between now and their planned for retirement date).

[Higgenbotham]

Here is a typical Boglehead thread.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=195748

They start with a true premise (only a handful of people can time the market) to reach a conclusion that is false (therefore you need to be fully invested at all times).

If you can't time the market and it's way overvalued, you need to stay the hell out!!!

[Higgenbotham]

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php

At the bottom of the index page to this site that advocates being fully invested at all times because you can't time the market, it says:

WHO IS ONLINE

In total there are 820 users online :: 84 registered, 6 hidden and 730 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 1790 on Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:28 pm

That was 3 days after the all time high.

[aeden]

This window may be quite important. .. Agree much to consider..
I hedged with 10's and 30's
Simply put, a higher duration implies that the bond price is more sensitive to rate changes.

Increased book 4
closed contango as mentioned
live another day

[aeden]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Iraq.html
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45

[aeden]

https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-p ... ano-rajoy/
Spain’s High Court convicted 29 people, including former senior officials of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party (PP), and sentenced them to a total of 351 years in prison on Thursday in one of the country’s biggest corruption scandals in modern history.

[aeden]

http://firstedition.routledgesoc.com/
faceplant

as social-ism in the acid test who you are allowed to trade with.

No different than the feudal red-seal since without it you could not trade.

The prices of all things have risen three, four, times since the discovery of the West Indies. –David Hume
Del Mar (1969b, pp. 326–27) echoes this view: The honest Abbe Raynal explains the whole matter in a few words: whilst the Portuguese robbed the Indians, the Dutch robbed the Portuguese. "In less than half a century the ships of the Dutch East India Company took more than three hundred Portuguese vessels …laden with the spoils of Asia. These brought the Company immense returns." Much of eastern gold, which found its way to Amsterdam was proceeds of double robbery.
Further evidence of an exceptionally large increase in the supply of money in the Netherlands is provided by an excerpt from a table of the total mint output of the South Netherlands, 1598–1789
By 1669, the VOC was the richest private company the world had ever seen, with over 150 merchant ships, 40 warships, 50,000 employees, a private army of 10,000 soldiers, and a dividend payment of 40% on the original investment
The funds for the purchase of merchandise in Asia were loaned to the managers of the expedition for an interest of 35% to 55% per trip, going as high as 100% in the case of Siam.
Tokugawa issued red-sealed permits to his favourite feudal lords and principal merchants who were interested in foreign trade. By doing so, he was able to control Japanese traders and reduce Japanese piracy in the South Sea. His seal also guaranteed the protection of the ships, since he vowed to pursue any pirate or nation who would violate it.
Besides Japanese traders, 12 European and 11 Chinese residents, including William Adams and Jan Joosten, are known to have received permits. At one point after 1621, Jan Joosten is recorded to have possessed 10 Red Seal Ships for commerce.
In February 1603, the Company seized the Santa Catarina (ship) off Singapore, a 1500-ton Portuguese merchant carrack. She was such a rich prize that her sale proceeds increased the capital of the VOC by more than 50%
In general the Company's overhead rose in step with the growth in trade volume; declining gross margins translated directly into a decline in profitability of the invested capital. The era of expansion was one of "profitless growth".
Joosten is reported to have made a fortune in trade between Japan and Southeast Asia, chartering several Red Seal Ships under license from Tokugawa Leyasu. He was reported by Dutch traders in Ayutthaya to be aboard junks carrying rich cargoes in early 1613. After the establishment of the Dutch Factory in Hirado, he became a middleman between Dutch merchants and the Shogunate.
He is also said to have been to Siam on one of his ships, with the Japanese adventurer and author Tenjiku Tokubei. Later, he attempted to return to the Netherlands, but after reaching Batavia, he was denied permission by Dutch authorities to proceed further.
Cost push of over three percent will lock up capital sooner than later. For example the FED conveys, the average real fed funds rate over the past 40 years has been about 3%, so if history were a good guide, then one would expect real interest rates to return to 3% over the next five to ten years.

As we witness the recent effect of water as the essential solvent.

water wheat weather

a from the grain colony

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqVuZgkjAOk

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05- ... university

Welcome to Gods true calling.

[aeden]

What intrigues us is that as price has plateaued in the last 10 to 12 weeks, speculators have continued to hold their nerve. Our thesis is that if price begins to roll over, the pressure on those bullish speculators to liquidate will increase quite dramatically. From our perspective, short term price action is already showing signs of weakness, so we may well soon get to test our bearish thesis on the oil market. mv April 16, 2018
And here is what is wrong with the incentive structure for American executives. Because they receive the vast majority of their compensation from share options, executives are much more focused on pushing the share price up than with the long term welfare of all stakeholders. Not only are they spending less on traditional capex (i.e. plant and equipment) even though borrowing costs are near 5000 year lows.

So here we have the vast majority of consumers just about managing and in some cases stretching themselves through increased borrowing in order to carry on consuming so that GDP grows. Corporate America is choosing to leverage their balance sheets in order to boost share prices (and executive compensation), rather than increase salaries and invest for future growth. On the current course, we cannot see how these two trends continue. Surely it is a question of time until something breaks. October 16, 2017

Get your House in order since Hell is half of the others.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default ... k=xQkVgQwv
The peso's as before will have to choose light over darkness.

The agency issue as we noted.
A conflict, known as an "agency problem," arises when there is a conflict of interest between the needs of the principal and the needs of the agent. In finance, there are two primary agency relationships.

Joseph Goldenberg, a member of the Executive Committee explained to the French Diplomat Claude Anet:
The Order No. 1 was not a mistake; it was a necessity…. On the day we executed the Revolution, we realized that if we did not destroy the old army, it would crush the Revolution. We had to choose between the army and the Revolution, and we did not waver: we chose the latter … *and we inflicted, I dare say, a brilliant blow.” So there you have it. The Executive Committee quite purposely destroyed the army in the middle of the war.

Then, as it turned out, there was a dozen of soldiers, who were there just for show and weren’t very bright, they were kept out of any real power or decision making. From the other thirty, though, of those who actually wielded power, more than half were Jewish socialists. There were also Russians, Caucasians, Latvians and Poles. Less than a quarter were Russians.

The moderate socialist V.B. Stankevich noted: “What really stuck out in the composition of the Committee was the large foreign element … totally out of proportion to their part of the population in Petrograd or the country in general.” Stankevich asks, “Was this the unhealthy scum of Russian society? Or was this the consequence of the sins of the old regime, which by its actions violently pushed the foreign element into the Leftist parties? Or was that simply the result of free competition?” And then, “there remains an open question — who bears more guilt for this — the foreign born, who were there, or the Russians who could have been there but weren’t?”

https://nationalsecurityaction.org/who-we-are/

G.A. Landau, Revolutsionniye idyee v Yevreyskoy obshestvennosti Rossi’I I every: Sb. 1 / Otechestvennoye ob’yedinennie russkikh yevreyev za granitsyey. Paris: YMCA – Press, 1978, Page 116 [1-e izd. – Berlin: Osnova, 1924]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05- ... nal-crisis
As before they cannot see the scaled up version from before.
As we seen they already have The Order No. 1 in place.
As they say not enough butter for the toast.

Also The WSJ will accept anything since propaganda works for the mid term procedure.
Rhino's and Cargo Cults are not a measure of utility.

This is for the first sentence. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05- ... s-below-68

I closed the contango to early H but for now I am ok with that.
As we have seen on one comment alone it went from lie of comission, to obfuscation and found to be the premise that allows a player to make a value judgment on the actions of another player, backed by the assumption of rationality, into consideration when selecting an action.

As we have seen the Office must prepare for the mid term proclivity's and supporting a mental framework we do not sense is a better theory in the graveyard of Empires but we understand the Yazedi and Kurdish reality as do they.

I see a few more understand the window. We have seen this before when rounds were taken from those who in actuality should of had them but that is another able archer fact from way back.

Anyways the clammier for the Rus problem are the problem. Since rock paper scissors and the long winter if actual village idiots can even fathom the Bear to survive the actual laymen of defense when it matters. Yes we need defense, we need democrats as government like another cargo cult as mentioned as it walked in circles to eliminate maniacs of ancient dialogs. I know it is a tough issue but dual citizens and Asian land wars with trillions of dollars as our people rot in tents here for reasons of economic dialogs. As we know the Office needs time apply stringents on a dialog of now path forward. The Office has our support in the hour seen.

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default ... k=LM2RPO60 h4
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 140#p39904

For those who have them left at crypto. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRg_8NNPTD8
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05- ... y-offended

thread: amos, 2018