Financial topics

[vincecate]

Markets are down like 20% from the high and 10% in the last 2 weeks going into a 3 day weekend.
I would expect that people who don't normally make many investment decisions but who look things over
this weekend will end up selling more than buying. So maybe Tuesday can start the waterfall.
Maybe a 1 in 10 chance?

[Phong Tran]

Retest and broke out from descending but still within the downwards trendline. Could still be finishing the (1) of ((3)) count with one more impulse down. Guess we'll see what Tuesday brings.

[vincecate]

Cleveland Fed is now estimating 8.24% for Aug CPI and 8.25% for Sept CPI. Not looking like quick drop to 2%.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx

[richard5za]

Markets are down like 20% from the high and 10% in the last 2 weeks going into a 3 day weekend.
I would expect that people who don't normally make many investment decisions but who look things over
this weekend will end up selling more than buying. So maybe Tuesday can start the waterfall.
Maybe a 1 in 10 chance? :-)

I don't know about Tuesday, maybe, but I think there is a fairly high probability of a waterfall crash once the Boomers start to panic. The average age of Boomers in the US is 67, and they own a high percentage of stock market stocks. They have had it very good on the markets since about 1990 and now at some stage they will start to see their retirement funding diminish to a level where they won't cope with their current living standards. Thats when I reckon the panic will start and the inevitable waterfall crash that follows panic

[Higgenbotham]

The first chart is a long term view of the monthly log chart with respect to the 13 month moving average. The moving average probably isn't all that important - it could be a 200 day, a 30 week, a 40 week, etc. - any one of these commonly used moving averages would have turned down and the market would be in a similar place with respect to them.

The second chart is my guess of where the market is at with respect to pattern or wave. When the market dawdled under 4200 in June I said that increased the probability that 4200 would be exceeded. As is often the case, that wasn't very helpful or actionable because it was only later that the market made a true attempt on 4200 and by that time it seemed ambiguous as to what would happen, and I said at 4100 when I started to go short that I doubted 4100 would hold, so I would do partial positions at 4100 and just under 4200 and 4300. When 4200 got touched and soundly rejected after Powell's speech I think that was the real tell that a fast decline could be starting. That would be consistent with a wave 3, or more generally speaking the point at which the herd begins to realize that the market is going to break the June low. If that's right, it would mean wave iii of 3 of 1 of a larger 3 is starting, which would imply the market has a long way to fall soon. It's also my guess that this decline may end up looking more like the decline starting in mid August 1937 than anything else, though it probably will fall more percentage wise. From mid August to mid October 1937 the market fell relentlessly day after day with almost no relief.

[vincecate]

I really don't think this inflation is over.

[Higgenbotham]

I really don't think this inflation is over.

Their last data point was January 1, 2021. Some recent discussion of personal savings is here, but I didn't read it in detail and try to figure out how much of it Burry actually said.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ion-2022-6

[vincecate]

Their last data point was January 1, 2021.

I think it is Q1 2022.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TndK


But I agree I have seen things indicating consumers are maxing out credit cards and in trouble. So this graph does seem a bit strange.

[Higgenbotham]

Their last data point was January 1, 2021.

I think it is Q1 2022.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TndK


But I agree I have seen things indicating consumers are maxing out credit cards and in trouble. So this graph does seem a bit strange.

Looks like the quarterly does say 2022 but the yearly said 2021 for some reason. Without having researched this, what comes to my mind is some households got most of that money. Every low income household in America got the recovery rebate credits (or stimulus checks) and the child tax credit, if applicable, regardless of income or tax status. The child tax credit was $3,600 or $3,000 per child, but it wasn't really a credit as in past years (the IRS called it "refundable"). Even if the taxpayer owed no tax, they got the $3,600 or $3,000 per child. That is now expired. Some got their rent paid too, so they could spend money on other things. It wouldn't surprise me if most of that money is spent, while the fat cats who got lots of PPP money and collected that free rent still have most of their money. I've heard stories about rent gouging when the government was paying rent that got kind of ridiculous.

https://www.newsweek.com/stimulus-check ... on-1731584

[Higgenbotham]

Hig, as an addition to my PM, I broke my general rule of never posting margin when a position is going against me, but I have been so bearish, I margined through the high.

This might interest you because it almost matches the December 8 low predicted here: https://www.timesymmetry.com/daily-comments.htm

It was on Zimmel's site years ago and I don't even know if it's still there.