" The belief in public-sector liberalism emerged in the last Crisis, rose in the High, crested in the Awakening, and is falling out of favor in the Unraveling. Cultural conservatism has followed the same pattern, though lagged by one turning. (It emerges in Unravelings and crests in the Highs.) "
I take it from this that every generational cycle creates a new instance of each political party. At the moment that the ideology "emerges", a new version of that political party is coined and the old version dies out. Thus we determine that the four instances of liberalism in America have been:
"Jeffersonian" liberals (until 1840): Focus on strengthening the economy by championing American agriculture and the sovereignty of states. The constitution is seen as literal and unchangeable.
"Provincial" liberals (1840-1920): Focus on state sovereignty as most indispensable. Champions the common, working class man, and ensures his economic independence. The constitution is flexible to certain situations. Emerged during the Civil War crisis.
"New Deal" liberals (1920-2000): Focus on individual civil rights and social justice. Champions the impoverished and cultural minorities, and concentrates more on their economic opportunity than independence. The constitution is generally considered out of date. Emerged during the World War crisis.
"Neoliberals" (2000-2080?): Focus on equal opportunity and social justice in all aspects of society, including healthcare and religion. The constitution provides a foundation, but not blueprint of the country. Emerged during the Terrorist crisis.
Similarly, the instances of conservatism come out like this:
"Federalist" conservatives (until 1820): Focus on strengthening the country by standardizing American economics and encouraging industry. The constitution is upheld but considered insubstantial for running the nation.
"Nationalist" conservatives (1820-1900): Focus on unification by creating a standard American identity. Encourages moral causes that are stymied by local governments. The constitution is flexible to certain situations. Emerged during the Antebellum unraveling.
"Progressive" conservatives (1900-1980): Focus on the economy by aiding individual businesses, and disabling parts of the government that inhibits this. Encourages causes that strengthen the American identity. The constitution is seen as fixed and literal. Emerged during the Progressive unraveling.
"Neoconservatives" (1980-2060?): Focus on the middle class economy. Sees a need to protect the constitution and the American identity. Emerged during the Culture war unraveling.
After considering this, I realized that each of these instances emerges during a particular presidential administration, almost always a president famous for his novel thinking. Similarly, each instance crests during another administration, and under a president famous for displaying the best qualities of his party.
From all of this consideration, I went ahead and created this infographic:
- Politics of Generational cycles
- GenerationPolitics.jpg (109.12 KiB) Viewed 4334 times
Jeffersonian: uncertain
Provincial: James Polk (1845-1849), Early Transcendental Generation (Idealist)
New Deal: Franklin Roosevelt (1933-1945), Missionary Generation (Idealist)
Neoliberal: Barack Obama (2008-2017), Generation X (Reactive)
Therefore, each version of liberalism is created by an idealist generation. The reason Obama is an outlier is because he was elected unusually young, and there is no denying that his administration is dominated by Baby Boomers. Theoretically, the liberal ideology known as Jeffersonian was first formed by the Awakening (idealist) generation at the beginning of the Revolutionary crisis (c.1760). However, this was before the constitution in 1787 and so no specific administration can be defined.
Each of these instances was also championed by these presidents:
Jeffersonian: Thomas Jefferson (1801-1809), Republican Generation (Civic)
Provincial: Grover Cleveland (1885-1889; 1893-1897), Gilded Generation (Civic)
New Deal: John Kennedy (1961-1963), Greatest Generation (Civic)
Neoliberal: unknown
We conclude that each version of liberalism is best depicted by a member of the civic generation. The civics usually bring the most practical application to idealist goals. Presumably, a liberal president of the Millennial (civic) generation will be elected during the next Awakening period, probably in 2048. This president will create the most popular and effective application of Neoliberalism as defined under Obama's administration. However appealing, though, neoliberalism will be destined to die out during the next Unraveling, probably in the early 2060's.
Similarly, each instance of conservatism was created during these presidencies:
Federalist: uncertain
Nationalist: John Quincy Adams (1825-1829), Compromise Generation (Adaptive)
Progressive: Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909), Progressive Generation (Adaptive)
Neoconservative: Ronald Reagan (1981-1989), Greatest Generation (Civic)
Thus it is evident that each version of conservatism is created by an adaptive generation. The reason that Ronald Reagan is an outlier is because he was unusually old when he was elected (and in fact, the oldest president ever elected), and there's no doubt that Reagan quickly aligned himself with an administration dominated by the Silent. Theoretically, the ideology later called Federalism was born in the early American unraveling (c.1740), and by a member of the Enlightenment (adaptive) generation. However, this was before the constitution in 1787 and so no specific administration can be defined.
Each instance of conservatism was also championed by the following:
Federalist: George Washington (1789-1797), Liberty Generation (Reactive)
Nationalist: Abraham Lincoln (1861-1865), Late Transcendental Generation (Reactive)
Progressive: Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961), Lost Generation (Reactive)
Neoconservative: unknown
We see here that every instance of conservatism was championed by a member of the reactive generation, and always by either the military or executive leader through the crisis itself. Presumably, the best qualities of the Neoconservatives will be shown by a president of Generation X, elected in either 2024 or 2028. He will either be the president to lead America through the crisis of the 2020's, or he will be the most famous commander of the crisis and be elected immediately afterwards. Neoconservatism will dominate through the next High period, but quickly disappear in the Awakening of the 2040's.
Let me know what you think,
Nathan G.