Sanctions on China

[jmm1184]

So I was talking with an acquaintance who is a retired US commander about the situation in N Korea. He believes North Korea poses an existential threat to the US and suggested two possible solutions short of a pre-emptive strike: let S Korea and Japan have nuclear weapons, and if necessary impose sanctions on China to compel them to force North Korea to stand down. He also proposed sanctions as a way to stop their encroachment on the S China Sea, reasoning that sanctions would cause their people to rebel due to the economic hardship and obviously the Chinese govt doesn't want that.

But wouldn't sanctions on China just provoke them to war, just like Japan in 1941? He seems to think they would back down but I seriously doubt they would humiliate themselves in that way. He did acknowledge that the solution means a risk of war but was very confifdent that we would defeat them quickly.

[John]

> So I was talking with an acquaintance who is a retired US
> commander about the situation in N Korea. He believes North Korea
> poses an existential threat to the US and suggested two possible
> solutions short of a pre-emptive strike: let S Korea and Japan
> have nuclear weapons, and if necessary impose sanctions on China
> to compel them to force North Korea to stand down. He also
> proposed sanctions as a way to stop their encroachment on the S
> China Sea, reasoning that sanctions would cause their people to
> rebel due to the economic hardship and obviously the Chinese govt
> doesn't want that.

> But wouldn't sanctions on China just provoke them to war, just
> like Japan in 1941? He seems to think they would back down but I
> seriously doubt they would humiliate themselves in that way. He
> did acknowledge that the solution means a risk of war but was very
> confifdent that we would defeat them quickly.

This whole thing doesn't make much sense to me. If North Korea is an
existential threat to the US, it's only because it would end up
triggering a war with China. What does "let S Korea and Japan have
nuclear weapons" mean? No one can either let them or forbid them
having nuclear weapons. They can have nuclear weapons if they want
them, but in both cases the domestic public backlash would be
enormous. And sanctions on China would not force them to do anything
-- except impose counter-sanctions. The whole thing is muddled
thinking. And he "was very confident that we would defeat them
quickly." He's also an idiot. Also, if we're going to defeat them
quickly, then why is North Korea an existential threat?

[jmm1184]

Well said. I wish he had had more time to elaborate on his views on China, but it was very sobering to hear generational dynamics in action. He literally said we may have to risk a catastrophic war with China if that will solve the issues with North Korea and China's aggressive foreign policy. It was astounding and disturbing.

What surprised me the most (though I shouldn't have surprised) is that several people agreed with him that China would just bow down to sanctions. Everyone was underestimating the Chinese. China's behavior over the past several years since roughly the mid to late 2000s has been eerily reminiscent of Japan in the 1930s, which of course is extremely ironic. While I don't think President Trump would actually impose sanctions, stranger things have happened. But I what I know for sure is that China would not back down - they would impose counter sanctions (no one seemed to consider how devastating that would be to our economy) or else declare war.