Prelude to Paraguayan Crisis War?

[jmm1184]

Apparently protesters in Asuncion, Paraguay have set fire to the Congress building in protest of a possible constitutional amendment that would allow the president to run for a second term. Their concern is that this could lead to another brutal dictatorship like the one led by General Stroessner from 1954-1989.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... e-protests

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/04/p ... 42421.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/protests-f ... 1491041649

The significance of this for generational dynamics is that Paraguay is in a crisis era, unlike its neighbors, who are all in awakening eras. Paraguay's last crisis war began with the Chaco War against Bolivia (1932-1935) and climaxed with a civil war from 1947-1948. Stroessner took power 6 years later in 1954 and ruled with an iron fist until he was overthrown in 1989 during Paraguay's awakening climax.

Its of course impossible to predict whether these protests will lead directly to war or will fizzle out, but considering that Paraguay is in a crisis era this is a potentially dangerous action. According to wikipedia a minority of the population owns most of the nation's wealth and much of the nation is impoverished. Could this be the first sign of an approaching crisis war, and would it draw in Paraguay's neighbors?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguay#Social_issues

[John]

I've just spent most of the day studying Paraguay's history. Thanks
for the links.

It looks to me that the Chaco War climaxed in 1935, and the period
from 1935-54 was a Recovery Era, when Stroessner took over at the
start of the Awakening era and instituted bloody crackdowns such as
we're seeing today in Syria and South Sudan.

Why do you believe that 1935 was not the climax?

[John]

The demographic groups in Paraguay, in decreasing order from most
those considered most elite to those considered most inferior,
are:

• Peninsulares - Spaniards born on the Iberian Peninsula
• Creoles - pure blood descendants of the Peninsulares, but
  born in Paraguay
• Mestizos - mixed race descendants of marriages between
  Spaniards and Indians
• Indians or Amerindians - Indigenous Indian tribes
• African-Americans or noirs

Do you know how the current riots break down along these lines?

[John]

The indigenous Indian tribes are Guaranis.

[jmm1184]

It looks to me that the Chaco War climaxed in 1935, and the period
from 1935-54 was a Recovery Era, when Stroessner took over at the
start of the Awakening era and instituted bloody crackdowns such as
we're seeing today in Syria and South Sudan.

Why do you believe that 1935 was not the climax

The 1947-1948 civil war. A civil war in the midst of a recovery era has always struck me as rather odd and counter-intuitive, since the country is supposed to be unified following the crisis war. Also while I admittedly haven't reseached the war extensively, I did read that there was bombing of the capital which caused many to flee.

That said, my assessment may be wrong. But the 1932-1935 Chaco is definitely a crisis war - that is indisputable. You may even say the crisis war climaxed in 1936 in the February Revolution which overthrew the old political order. However, I don't know if this was bloody or not, so it could be part of the post-crisis political upheaval.

But regardless, Paraguay is undoubtedly in a crisis era. In regards to who is behind the protests, the information in the articles is unclear. According to wikipedia Paraguay is 95% mestizo with a 2% indigenous population. However there appears to be a severe class divide as 10% of the country own over 40% of the wealth, and much of the rural population is landless. So whether this just shows political wrangling or the beginnings of deeper resentment/hatred may yet to be seen - I couldn't reach anything conclusive from my reading of the articles.

[John]

The thing is, the War of the Triple Alliance and the Chaco War were
both external wars, fought against Brazil + Argentina + Uruguay and
against Bolivia, respectively.

Historically, there's little sign of a major fault line between the
different groups in Paraguay. So even though the country is
definitely pretty deep into a Crisis era, I would have to guess that
the current unrest will turn into a social conflict, but not into a
larger war, unless some foreign country intervenes.

Here are links to some historical stuff I've been reading:

http://countrystudies.us/paraguay/2.htm

http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/Pla ... oryid=ac48

http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/Pla ... track=pthc

http://www.everyculture.com/No-Sa/Paraguay.html

[jmm1184]

Interesting - Paraguay may present a rare occasion for generational dynamics. A nation deep in a crisis war with no internal fault-lines and surrounded by neighbors in a non-crisis era.

The last crisis wars for its neighbors, according to my best research, is the following.

Argentina = The Dirty War, 1973-1979. Argentina does not appear to have experienced an awakening climax, though how it will do so will be interesting. So Argentina is in an unraveling era but has yet to experience an awakening climax.

Brazil = Military Dictatorship vs. Marxist Guerillas = 1968-1974 or 1964-1979. Brazil does not seem to have significant fighting unlike Argentina, so it may actually have an associated crisis war with Argentina. I'm expecting Brazil to have an awakening climax very soon, due to the events of 2016. So Brazil is also in an unraveling era yet to experience an awakening climax.

Bolivia is one country I have had difficulty figuring out, and it requires further study. It may have a very long crisis war from 1952-1980, but I am skeptical. It had a social revolution from 1952-1964 in which there was land distribution and political upheaval, but it seems to have come short of violence between the Creole Landowners and the indigenous/mestizo peasants. From 1964-1980 there were a series of violent coups and military dictatorships. This may be a crisis war or it could be a recovery period. I am suspicious that the election of Evo Morales as president in 2006 is an awakening climax as it marks an important moment in Bolivian history, as Evo Morales identifies as indigenous instead of creole, and has championed the poor and indigenous rights since 2006. So I am quite unsure of Bolivia's status, but i suspect it is in an unraveling.

[jmm1184]

I've just spent most of the day studying Paraguay's history. Thanks
for the links.

It looks to me that the Chaco War climaxed in 1935, and the period
from 1935-54 was a Recovery Era, when Stroessner took over at the
start of the Awakening era and instituted bloody crackdowns such as
we're seeing today in Syria and South Sudan.

I've been studying Bolivia's modern history more in depth, and the interesting thing I found is that it looks like the Chaco War was a crisis war for Bolivia as well, so Bolivia and Paraguay are on the same timeline. So Bolivia is also deep into a crisis era.

What I'm still not sure about with Bolivia is whether or not there is still a strong fault-line between the Aymara Indians and the market-dominant creoles/white immigrants. The last two wars of Bolivia have been external: The Chaco War, 1932-1935, and the War of the Pacific, 1879-1880. But before these Bolivia's crisis war appears to the Inca Rebellion of Tupac Amaru, which caused the deaths of thousands over a short two-year period. I have doubts about whether the Bolivian war of independence was actually a crisis war for Bolivia, as the Andes region appears to have been fairly conservative and loyalist during the Latin American independence wars. But further research is needed.