Geopolitical topics

[freddyv]

At http://www.cnbc.com/id/27641538 the topic is US Bankruptcy, which now seems almost certain at some point in the future.

"In order to solve or stem the economic slowdown, Hennecke suggested the US would have to radically reduce spending across all sectors and recall all its troops from around the world."

This fits in with the whole Generational Dynamics path that John has laid out. Once we have pulled out of various regions around the world the bad guys are free to do as they please.

This is all so very interesting...and sad. Sort of like watching your kid going down the wrong path and knowing that there is nothing you can do to keep them from making the same mistakes you had to make to become a wise(r) person.

I tell people around me what is coming and they don't even doubt me but seem unable to do anything to help themselves beause they are all so attached to the mind-numbing shows and content they are fed from the TV, radio or Internet.

--Fred

[John]

From a web site reader:

> Hi there

> I'm lonely girl live in Ukraine and look for love.
> My name is Roselin and I'm 20 years old.

> Find out my image at this site.

>

> I'll be waiting!

Dear Roselin,

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I suggest that you
check out the countries in the eastern portion of the European Union.

I've been told that there are plenty of available men in those
countries, so you won't be lonely any more. I understand that the
younger generation women have fled to Britain and France to find rich
husbands.

Sincerely,

John

[Matt1989]

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24 ... public_rss

[John]

-- New Zealand

From a web site reader:

> In case you wished to expand your information on crisis wars in
> New Zealand, I would consider looking into what are known as the
> Maori Land Wars fought between 1844 - 1848 and 1860 - 1872. Both
> belligerents in the conflict were in a crisis age. The Maori were
> in a crisis because they were fighting for the survival of their
> culture and way of life, a trait of crisis wars. The British and
> European immigrants were also in a crisis age, judging by the way
> that they fought the Maori, which quickly turned into near if not
> literal genocide. I also am quite sure this is a crisis war
> because it ended about 15 or 20 years before the next awakening
> (the 1890's) and about 60 years before the beginning of the next
> crisis. I have very little resources for any additional
> information, and what little information I have obtained is from
> wikipedia. I just though you might be interested.

I've never studied New Zealand much, but from a quick check with New
Zealand history, your analysis seems to be pretty much correct.

The only addition I would make is that the 1844-48 war appears to be
a non-crisis prelude to the real crisis war in the 1860s. From my
quick reading, it appears that the 1860s war climaxed in 1864 with
the defeat of the British at Gate Pa, with a guerilla war continuing
into the Recovery era, but it needs more research.

Thanks for the information.

Sincerely,

John

[protagonist]

From a web site reader:

> Hi there

> I'm lonely girl live in Ukraine and look for love.
> My name is Roselin and I'm 20 years old.

> Find out my image at this site.

>

> I'll be waiting!

Dear Roselin,

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I suggest that you
check out the countries in the eastern portion of the European Union.

I've been told that there are plenty of available men in those
countries, so you won't be lonely any more. I understand that the
younger generation women have fled to Britain and France to find rich
husbands.

Sincerely,

John

You do realise that's probably a spammer, right?

[John]

You do realise that's probably a spammer, right?

Yes.

John

[John]

A new article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says that things are moving
quickly:

> Protectionist dominoes are beginning to tumble across the world

> The riots have begun. Civil protest is breaking out in cities
> across Russia, China, and beyond.

> Greece has been in turmoil for 11 days. The mood seems to have
> turned "pre-insurrectionary" in parts of Athens - to borrow from
> the Marxist handbook.

> This is a foretaste of what the world may face as the "crisis of
> capitalism" - another Marxist phase making a comeback - starts to
> turn two hundred million lives upside down.

> We are advancing to the political stage of this global train
> wreck. Regimes are being tested. Those relying on perma-boom to
> mask a lack of democratic or ancestral legitimacy may try to gain
> time by the usual methods: trade barriers, saber-rattling, and
> barbed wire. ...

> "If we are not able to [use worldwide fiscal stimulus], then
> social unrest may happen in many countries, including advanced
> economies. We are facing an unprecedented decline in output. All
> around the planet, the people have reacted with feelings going
> from surprise to anger, and from anger to fear," said IMF head.

> Russia has begun to shut down trade as it adjusts to the shock of
> Urals oil below $40 a barrel. It has imposed import tariffs of
> 30pc on cars, 15pc on farm kit, and 95pc on poultry (above quota
> levels). "It is possible during the financial crisis to support
> domestic producers by raising customs duties," said Premier
> Vladimir Putin. ...

> The Kremlin is alarmed by a 13pc fall in industrial output over
> the last five months. There have been street protests in Moscow,
> St Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Vladivostok and Barnaul. Police
> crushed "Dissent Marchers" holding copies of Russia's constitution
> above their heads in Moscow's Triumfalnaya Square.

> "Russia has not seen anything like these nationwide protests
> before," said Boris Kagarlitsky from Moscow's Globalization
> Institute.

> The Duma is widening the treason law to catch most forms of
> political dissent, and unwelcome forms of journalism. Jury trials
> for state crimes are to be abolished.

> Yevgeny Kiseloyov at the Moscow Times said it feels eerily like
> December 1 1934 when Stalin unveiled his "Enemies of the People"
> law, kicking off the Great Terror.

> The omens are not good in China either. Taxis are being bugged by
> state police. The great unknown is how Beijing will respond as
> its state-directed export strategy hits a brick wall, leaving
> exposed a vast eyesore of concrete and excess plant.

> Exports fell 2.2pc in November. Toy, textile, footwear, and
> furniture plants are being closed across Guangdong, now the riot
> hub of South China. Some 40m Chinese workers are expected to lose
> their jobs. Party officials have warned of "mass-scale social
> turmoil". ...

> So is the Communist Party mulling a 1930s "beggar-thy-neighbour"
> strategy of devaluation to export its way out of trouble? Such
> raw mercantilism can only draw a sharp retort from Washington and
> Brussels in this climate.

> "During a global slowdown, you can't have countries trying to
> take advantage of others by manipulating their currencies," said
> Frank Vargo from the US National Association of Manufacturers.
> ...

> There has been much talk lately of America's Smoot-Hawley Tariff
> Act, which set off the protectionist dominoes in 1930. It is
> usually invoked by free traders to make the wrong point. The
> relevant message of Smoot-Hawley is that America was then the big
> exporter, playing the China role. By resorting to tariffs, it set
> off retaliation, and was the biggest victim of its own folly.

> Britain and the Dominions retreated into Imperial Preference.
> Other countries joined. This became the "growth bloc" of the
> 1930s, free from the deflation constraints of the Gold Standard.
> High tariffs stopped the stimulus leaking out.

> It was a successful strategy - given the awful alternatives - and
> was the key reason why Britain's economy contracted by just 5pc
> during the Depression, against 15pc for France, and 30pc for the
> US.

> Could we see such a closed "growth bloc" emerging now, this time
> led by the US, entailing a massive rupture of world's trading
> system? Perhaps.

> This crisis has already brought us a monetary revolution as
> interest rates approach zero across the G10. It may overturn the
> "New World Order" as well, unless we move with great care in grim
> months ahead. This is where events turn dangerous.

> The last great era of globalisation peaked just before 1914. You
> know the rest of the story.
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... world.html

This presents an interesting variation on the "Bubble that Broke the
World" scenario that I keep talking about.

Evans-Pritchard is speculating that China will impose punitive
tariffs, and end up screwing themselves, and that the US and other
countries will form a cartel that will fare better as a result. This
kind of economic split could also be a prelude to war.

Evans-Pritchard is unique in that he's a mainstream media person who
who understands what's going on in the world, and is able to get away
with writing about it. I wonder how he does it, or why he's allowed
to do it?

By the way, the picture that he paints of riots around the world is
very vivid, but I don't see it or hear it anywhere else --
particularly not on the BBC. If the BBC did a story on riots around
the world, it would be labeled as "alarmist."

Sincerely,

John

[protagonist]

Well China's economy relies on exports so when their exports drop they have to protect themselves by limiting imports as well. It's not them screwing over themselves, it's just what they have to do to protect themselves. It doesn't make much difference whether if it's due to a tariff or just a drop in demand that you import less, so all this stuff will happen whether or not if China's the first to enact tariffs.

[protagonist]

Globish must be the most useless language ever invented. 1500 words?! come on, 5 year-olds probably know more than that.
The large vocabulary and tenses as well as sentence construction makes the user of the language capable of expressing many more things than simpler languages. The 5 main languages of the world can probably express the same things, while simpler languages can't say as many things and cannot express the subtler feelings of the user.

[MarshAviator]

I have been traveling on a project for about one year, mostly to Europe.
It's true and strange to see two non-native English speakers conversing in broken
simplistic English, but that's what you see (hear).

Even stranger is India, which has many local (regional) dialects,
and the common national language (Hindi) has a core of English words.

Sooner or later this could form the basis a universal language.

I wonder if the basic major forces in the clash of civilizations conflict with
be English (non US standard) and something else (what)?

Also 1500 words is more than most of the U.S. business travelers speak of French,Spanish or German.