Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Posted: Sun Mar 19, 2023 12:01 am
Navigator, there are some comments in the "Preparing For The Coming Storms" section that I would like your opinion on. Are those comments credible analysis?
Generational theory, international history and current events
https://gdxforum.com/forum/
Illegal immigrants are a major problem for the US. There are roughly 20 million. The vast majority are trying to make a life for themselves. But lets say even 5 million are bad apples. They are not going to wipe out 350 million others.Guest wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:52 pmThat's a nice post, unfortunately the reality of illegal immigration in America and Europe is quite bad. Crime, poverty, and the diseases many migrants bring is swept under the rug by most media and government. Migrants are also changing the cultures of countries; assimilation is now openly reviled as 'white supremacy'. The West has been hijacked by an insane minority; the 60s on crack cocaine. Westerners are being raped, robbed, and murdered out of existence.
IMHO, almost everything has been in place for this to start since mid 2021.Guest wrote: ↑Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:58 pm
How long before the nukes start flying?
Isn't the CCP plan to nuke Japan preemptively?
Macron's wife is almost 70. Their relationship was said to have started when he was only 15. Macron's parents begged her to leave their son alone, but she refused in some pompous rambling speech that the French are so well know for. So the scandal is much worse. (But, of course, it is just how the French do things, no?)John wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 3:36 pmSunday, March 19, 2023 -- France pension reform
I think that this is hilarious.
France's parliament has repeatedly
rejected a bill to increase the
retirement age from 62 to 64. From the
point of view of an American, that's
hilarious enough. But there's more.
France's Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron
is invoking his unilateral powers to
force the reform to occur, infuriating
the labor unions and triggering weeks of
riots in Paris, some of them violent.
Jacques Chirac lost a vote of confidence
in 1995 by attempting a similar pension
reform, and subsequent governments have
also tried and failed. Macron may also
lose a vote of confidence, causing his
government to fall.
So the question is: Why is Macron being
so hard on this issue? That was asked
of a French analyst on CNN today, and
her answer was some babbling about
principle and being French.
But I think that there's a much more
hilarious reason that no one talks
about. Recall that when Macron was 17
years old, Macron had a sexual affair
with his 39 year old schoolteacher, who
was thus guilty of raping her student.
(She was never charged with rape, just
as Bill Clinton was never charged for
his violent rape of a dozen or so women.
When you're a Democrat, you can rape
anyone you want and no one cares.
Remember that, girls -- if you're being
raped by a Democrat, you might as well
just lie back and enjoy it. Because if you
complain, someone like Hillary will
destroy your life, essentially raping
you again.)
So anyway, Macron married his
schoolteacher, and she must be around 60
years old about now. So in answer to
the question of why Macron is pushing
this pension reform so hard, my guess is
that his aging wife wants him to do so.
Why? Once again, we can only guess, but
my guess is she wants his government to
fall, so that he'll have more time to be
at home taking care of her, taking
advantage of all the money he's
collected from corruption.
Meanwhile, the Paris riots are continuing.
But this didn't stop the Japanese taking a huge risk by attacking America.Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 9:09 pmWhen it comes to nuclear war, I don't think the first nation to use them will be China or the United States, probably not even Russia. It'll be one of the smaller powers like North Korea or Pakistan. Neither nation has the technology or the industry to fight a total war, so the nuclear card is going to be a lot more tempting if they feel backed into a corner.
The best way to cripple China's war efforts is a blockade, chiefly around the Straits of Malacca and the Philippine Sea. They're forced to import more than 10 million barrels of oil a day from other nations, most of which comes from the Middle East. Russia supplies around 25% of it and building the infrastructure to transport more takes years, not even taking into account wartime efforts to sabotage pipelines. However, such a move has a good chance of leading to mass starvation within China, so it might not be something we'd be willing to do, thinking it'll be a quick war. In WWI, the British blockade, more than anything else, is what broke Germany.
Their military looks impressive on paper, but so did Russia's a year ago. The CCP likes to claim their missiles will sink carriers like sitting ducks, we have no defense, blah blah blah. They probably could sink one or two, or at least cripple them, but carriers are moving targets, they have several support ships defending them, and dozens of aircraft hunting down missile launchers, so it's far from simple.
Something to remember: China has minimal experience being a naval power. Thirty years ago, all they possessed was a brown-water navy patrolling their coasts, and there's no substitute for experience. We have more than a century of experience being a naval power, and our British allies have far more than that. I expect they could push us away from their coastline, at a high cost, but I don't see them capable of destroying our naval capability, let alone adding Japan, India, South Korea, and Australia's navies on top of that.
Yes, they have a great deal of industry, though much of it is aimed at low-end products. Mass-producing unguided artillery shells is one thing, even loitering munitions, but stealth aircraft and modern tanks are another matter. More than that, there are no shortcuts when it comes to training personnel, and even rushing the process would take close to a year, another issue we've seen Russia have in Ukraine. Their last war was fought against Vietnam, where they got their butts kicked. Nor is time necessarily on their side, given their demographic and economic issues. However bad off we are, China's problems are worse.