Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

DaKardii wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:01 pm
Whoa! France just recalled its ambassadors from both the US and Australia over this sub deal.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Franco-American alliance? And if so, could this be the beginning of a French realignment with China and/or Russia?

And what about NATO? Can the alliance survive a break in Franco-American relations?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/france- ... -deal.html

Looks like France is steamed over losing that cha-ching! from the Attack class.


As a side note, part of the AUKUS deal seems to be bringing Australia and the UK into NRO data. A very nice expansion of 5 Eyes. Also, Australia said that it expects regular deployments of *all* types of US aircraft which would seem to rule in bombers such as B-52, B-2 and in the future, B-21. That should relieve some of the congestion on Guam.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

DaKardii wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:01 pm
Whoa! France just recalled its ambassadors from both the US and Australia over this sub deal.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Franco-American alliance? And if so, could this be the beginning of a French realignment with China and/or Russia?

And what about NATO? Can the alliance survive a break in Franco-American relations?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/france- ... -deal.html
France is never going to align with Russia or China. That's not even a silly question. And NATO survived just fine when France removed itself from the NATO command structure.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:20 pm
DaKardii wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 6:01 pm
Whoa! France just recalled its ambassadors from both the US and Australia over this sub deal.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Franco-American alliance? And if so, could this be the beginning of a French realignment with China and/or Russia?

And what about NATO? Can the alliance survive a break in Franco-American relations?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/france- ... -deal.html
France is never going to align with Russia or China. That's not even a silly question. And NATO survived just fine when France removed itself from the NATO command structure.
Of course, the psychopaths running our foreign policy could easily change that, if they have the balls to do something like attempt a coup against Macron. I can easily picture them trying to pull off something like that.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

DaKardii wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:10 pm
Guest wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:27 am
He is not Korean.
So that automatically makes his input less valuable?
Yes.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 17-Sep-2021 World View: Outsiders
Guest wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:27 am
> He is not Korean.
DaKardii wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:10 pm
> So that automatically makes his input less valuable?
Guest wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:29 pm
> Yes.
Sometimes an insider is bound by tribal or party loyalties and can't
be honest, while an outsider who is not part of a tribe can provide a
more accurate analysis.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Guest wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 8:13 pm
Cool Breeze wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 7:56 pm
thomasglee wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 5:47 pm



We are making a push at the local level to take back control of county governance. It seems that there will be pockets of "tribes" connected by geography, if nothing else, that will be what keeps things loosely together. At least here where I am located in Texas.
This is what I see happening. de facto "secession" via regionalization and inability to enforce stupid anti american laws or mandates
Either America breaks up into ethno-states or it dies completely.
It is tough to predict, obviously, so I wouldn't be so sure of that. Usually either/or's don't work out. Just saying.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:05 pm
Sometimes an insider is bound by tribal or party loyalties and can't
be honest, while an outsider who is not part of a tribe can provide a
more accurate analysis.
Agreed.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 17-Sep-2021 World View: Will Korea choose China or Japan-America?
utahbob wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:04 pm
> I think South Korea will be with Japan and America. They are
> almost gone from China.
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYqKUEGEeuc
I've wondered for a long time whether Korea would be on the side of
Japan-America or China. My suspicion has always been that North Korea
would be on the side of China, and South Korea would be on the side of
Japan, but I was never certain of this until I spent well over a year
doing heavy research for my books on China, Japan and Vietnam, and
this involved studying the history of all these countries, including
Korea, for the last millennium or more.

If I were to characterize my understanding of the basic attitude of
the Koreans, it would be that they want to get along with both China
and Japan or, to put it another way, their attitude is "a plague on
both your houses." Geographically, Korea has served as a buffer
between Japan and China, and relations with each country have always
been fraught.

If you look at history, there is no reason why the Koreans should have
any great love for China. To the contrary, China has always treated
Korea contemptuously. For much of the last millennium, Korea was a
vassal, a tributary nation to China, meaning that Korea paid gold and
slaves to China in return for guarantees of defense from outsiders
(i.e., Japan) -- and from China.

So China treated Korea as a vassal, but Japan treated (tried to treat)
Korea as a colony.

In my opinion, the most important battle in East Asian history for the
past millennium (prior to WW II) was the Battle of Myongnyang
(Myeongnyang) on October 26, 1597, the climactic battle of the Imjin
Wars. The following are some excerpts from my book, War between China
and Japan.

In my opinion, the most important battle in Asia in the last
millennium (prior to WW II) was the Battle of Myongnyang
(Myeongnyang), October 26, 1597, because it was so crushing and so
climactic that it must have been well remembered for centuries -- with
glee by the Koreans and Chinese, and with humiliation by the Japanese
-- and would have had a strong visceral influence on the events
following the Taiping Rebellion and the Meiji Restoration.

Japan attacked Korea in 1592 and 1597 with the intention of using it
as a stepping stone to the conquest of China. Japan's samurai army
general Toyotomi Hideyoshi launched his second invasion of Korea on
August 27, 1597, with a force of 100,000 soldiers in 1000 ships to
reinforce the 50,000 troops left behind in Korea after the first
invasion. The climax was the Battle of Myongnyang on October 26.
Admiral Yi's small contingent of twelve ships destroyed 133 Japanese
vessels without any Korean losses. Admiral Yi achieved this victory
after luring the Japanese fleet into a narrow channel and using the
swift currents to his advantage. This victory prevented the Japanese
navy from entering the Yellow Sea and re-supplying its army trying to
advance towards Seoul.

Even today, the battle is described in almost mythic terms, as an
almost miraculous victory by Korean Admiral Yi Sun-sin, who used a
tactical innovation called a "crane wing formation":
"Crane Wing formation (Kor. Hagik-jin): One of Admiral
Yi’s famed naval formations. A Turtle-ship sails at the head of a
detachment of board-roofed ships, which spread out in a curved
line resembling a crane’s wing when they come close to the enemy,
thus surrounding him before attacking. The renowned Japanese
history journal, History Studies (May 2002) revealed that Admiral
Togo’s ‘T’ formation, used in the Battle of Tsushima, was based on
this formation by Admiral Yi."
Korea became increasingly isolationist after defeating Japan, and was
defeated in 1637 by an invading army by the Manchus in China who were
forming the Qing dynasty, forcing Korea to submit once more to a
tributary relationship with the Manchus in China. This relationship
continued until the Sino-Japanese war of 1894-95.

So Japan left Korea alone for three centuries after the humiliating
defeat at Myongnyang. After the Japanese Empire won the
Russo-Japanese war (1905), there was a Peace Conference at Portsmouth
in the USA, which began on August 10, 1905, presided over by US
president Theodore Roosevelt. One of the outcomes of that peace
conference was that, despite appeals from Korea, Roosevelt awarded
Korea to Japan as one of the spoils of war. So Korea became a colony
of Japan until 1945. According to what I've read, the period of
colonization was generally positive for Korea, and they are not bitter
about it, except for the issue of comfort women.

Since the end of WW II, Korea's relationship with the rest of the
world was defined by the Korean War. North and South Korea fought an
extremely bloody and vicious war that did not end except for an
armistice. The Chinese supported the North Koreans, and the
Americans supported the South Koreans.

Today, the South Koreans are not so much afraid of an invasion by
Japan or China (or Russia) as they are of an invasion by the North
Koreans. There are artillery batteries lining the area just above the
DMX. I'm told that these weapons are out of date, but they still
could reach Seoul and do a lot of damage. In addition, North Korea
has developed modern cruise missiles and ballistic missiles capable of
reaching South Korea or Japan.

So the South Koreans will, of course, side with Japan and America,
since they have no choice. Siding with China is not an option since
the Chinese Communists would swallow South Korea and turn it over to
North Korea as the spoils of war.

The North Koreans are in a difficult place. They are stuck with
China, because they want to conquer South Korea. But the North
Koreans have a love-hate relationship with China. They've totally
become vassals to China, which the North Koreans hate. Even worse,
North Korea is a country with one of the 22 border disputes with
China, and China claims a portion of northwest North Korea as
sovereign Chinese territory.

Nonetheless, it's never been clear to me whom the North Koreans want
to strike with their ballistic missile nuclear weapons. When you
consider each possible target -- America, Japan, South Korea, China --
there's never a good strategic reason. The only exception would be if
they are launching such a ballistic missile at someone at the request
of China. Other than that, these nuclear ballistic missile have no
strategic value, but may have a tactical value, if the North Koreans
get REALLY pissed off at someone.

Update (18-Sep 10 am ET): I've made several corrections to minor
errors, the worst of which were that I kept typing "Vietnam" when I
meant "Korea." Thanks to the people who pointed out errors.

FullMoon
Posts: 772
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

'Siding with China is an an option since
the Chinese Communists will swallow South Korea and turn it over to
North Korea as the spoils of war.'
Is Not an option.
I would say that the beautiful Korean girls would make excellent spoils for the millions upon millions of unmarried conscripts. Something the men would fight to protect. Unless they're all boy band types.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

FullMoon wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:09 pm
'Siding with China is an an option since
the Chinese Communists will swallow South Korea and turn it over to
North Korea as the spoils of war.'
Is Not an option.
I would say that the beautiful Korean girls would make excellent spoils for the millions upon millions of unmarried conscripts. Something the men would fight to protect. Unless they're all boy band types.
This a very real prospect. South Koreans are aware of this.

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