Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Xeraphim1

Re: Military Leadership

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:17 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:54 pm

You exaggerate. While our generals could always be better, there has been some 30 years of constant warfare to provide experience up and down the ladder. Our lamest generals are cowardly responding to political pressures but that do not necessarily mean that they are bad at their job.

China is in much worse shape with very few leaders having any combat experience. The PLAN is even worse since there are political officers who can and do countermand the actual leader's orders while reporting up is frequently falsified.
I don't think anyone could exagerate how big a fiasco (militarily as well as diplomatically) the Kabul/AFG withdraw was.

Also, I agree with you that as bad as our generals are, the PLA (and the PLAN) are much worse. After they lose the advantage of surprise and lose a lot of their somewhat trained soldiers, they will revert back to using human wave tactics with barely trained conscripts. They care nothing for the lives of their people or soldiers/sailors.
Well, yes, it was a disaster but it was a political one, not a military one. The Biden Whitehouse made the decisions on what was done while the military followed orders.

And yes, the Chinese leadership has no great regard for human life (other than their own), but Chinese human wave attacks are unlikely in the future. Maybe is someone was actually invading China, but that's very unlikely. Modern weapons are so lethal than lining up your conscripts is an invitation for the other side to kill them all. Plus they'd need to walk to wherever they're attacking since if things were that bad there'd be no transport for them.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

John wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:02 pm
17-Sep-21 World View -- ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet

Furious reactions from China and France

** 17-Sep-21 World View -- ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210917


Contents:
ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet
Furious reaction from China
Furious reaction from France
It was a very pleasant surprise, but not totally unexpected. The price tag for the Attack class had ballooned to ridiculous levels and France was well aware of the problems. Naval Group did a shakeup of their leadership of the project earlier this year to try to save it so the French seem to be a bit overwrought.

Nuclear propulsion makes a lot a sense for Australia considering the amount of territory it needs to cover. The question now is what will actually develop. The best option would be to sell the Virginia class design to Oz but that would be too sensible. I could see Oz insisting on designing it's own which would add many years and additional billions to the cost. We'll also need to see what the UK will be offering since the Astute class is less capable than Virginia.

Navigator
Posts: 904
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Military Leadership

Post by Navigator »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:11 am

Well, yes, it was a disaster but it was a political one, not a military one. The Biden Whitehouse made the decisions on what was done while the military followed orders.
Senior military leadership should have had the guts to threaten to resign given the appalling plan they were told to execute. This point was in my original post. They (senior generals/admirals) have a responsibility to do this if the political powers insist on bad plans. They should have done this regarding Johnson's escalation strategy in Vietnam, but only the head of the USMC did. It MIGHT have influenced some of what played out there. In the case of AFG, it also might have influenced the white house, though if Susan Rice is calling the shots (and she is a complete buffoon), it may not have. But at least the military leadership would have retained its dignity.

Navigator
Posts: 904
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:45 am
John wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:02 pm
17-Sep-21 World View -- ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet

Furious reactions from China and France

** 17-Sep-21 World View -- ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210917


Contents:
ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet
Furious reaction from China
Furious reaction from France
It was a very pleasant surprise, but not totally unexpected. The price tag for the Attack class had ballooned to ridiculous levels and France was well aware of the problems. Naval Group did a shakeup of their leadership of the project earlier this year to try to save it so the French seem to be a bit overwrought.

Nuclear propulsion makes a lot a sense for Australia considering the amount of territory it needs to cover. The question now is what will actually develop. The best option would be to sell the Virginia class design to Oz but that would be too sensible. I could see Oz insisting on designing it's own which would add many years and additional billions to the cost. We'll also need to see what the UK will be offering since the Astute class is less capable than Virginia.
From what I have seen/read, it seems that they will modify a UK design. Given recent CCP threats, we should sell them at least two older SSBNs, along with a load of missiles.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Guest wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:27 am
He is not Korean.
So that automatically makes his input less valuable?

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

For the last few days, I've been scratching my head about Mark Milley. I mean, why would one of the architects of the 2019 Baghdad embassy false flag suddenly become such a staunch advocate of restraint vis a vis China?

It took me some time, but I've come to the conclusion that Milley is one of "those" neocons who actually want to appease the CCP rather than confront it, because of the inevitable Sino-Sunni alliance. After all, he was willing to do the Saudis a favor by co-orchestrating the false flag event at the Baghdad embassy, so why not do them a favor again by appeasing the CCP, who the Saudis are covertly courting as a potential ally.

Ironically, these efforts may end up being for naught, as Saudi Arabia is slowly losing influence within the Sunni world to its rival Turkey. Which is why Saudi Arabia is also weighing the possibility of realigning itself with the Russo-Indian-Iranian axis in order to protect itself from Erdogan's imperial ambitions.

Xeraphim1

Re: Military Leadership

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:09 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:11 am

Well, yes, it was a disaster but it was a political one, not a military one. The Biden Whitehouse made the decisions on what was done while the military followed orders.
Senior military leadership should have had the guts to threaten to resign given the appalling plan they were told to execute. This point was in my original post. They (senior generals/admirals) have a responsibility to do this if the political powers insist on bad plans. They should have done this regarding Johnson's escalation strategy in Vietnam, but only the head of the USMC did. It MIGHT have influenced some of what played out there. In the case of AFG, it also might have influenced the white house, though if Susan Rice is calling the shots (and she is a complete buffoon), it may not have. But at least the military leadership would have retained its dignity.
In this case I think resignations would have been pointless exercises. The Biden administration was determined to get out and didn't care about the consequences. I don't think it's in the same category as Vietnam since leaving had been planned for more than a year.

utahbob
Posts: 138
Joined: Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:10 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by utahbob »

Guest wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:27 am
DaKardii wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:21 am
Guest wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:44 am


I live here. And we are aligned to the West. I think it's a lot of your people that are pro-communist. I think you had better look inward before questioning us. Plenty of evidence that at least half of Americans are communist scum.
Fellow poster “thomasglee” lived in Asia for 20 years.

This is what he had to say about this issue back in April:
thomasglee wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:36 pm
The Moon regime has become more and more dismissive toward the USA over the past several years. South Korean manufacturers are heavily dependent on China and China is dependant on Korea for technologies that can be used in 5G networks. I suspect China and Korea will align against the USA and Japan. South Korea and China needed the Kim family (or at least Kim Jong Un) out of the way to achieve this goal. KJU and Trump were getting along too well and KJU doesn't/didn't want to lose the power and wealth he maintains by a divided Korea. He is not nearly as ideological as his father and grandfather. With KJU out of the way, a confederation between the north and south can be created, giving south Korea access to nuclear and missile technologies, which they will likely use to act as a blocking force against Japan and/or Taiwan in a war between the USA and China. To me, it is becoming more and more clear where south Korea's loyalties are going to lie. Throughout Korea's history, they have been a tributary state to China (or Japan) and it looks like they are going back to that model.
He is not Korean.
I think South Korea will be with Japan and America. They are almost gone from China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYqKUEGEeuc

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:11 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:45 am
John wrote:
Thu Sep 16, 2021 10:02 pm
17-Sep-21 World View -- ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet

Furious reactions from China and France

** 17-Sep-21 World View -- ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e210917


Contents:
ANKUS agreement: US and UK will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarine fleet
Furious reaction from China
Furious reaction from France
It was a very pleasant surprise, but not totally unexpected. The price tag for the Attack class had ballooned to ridiculous levels and France was well aware of the problems. Naval Group did a shakeup of their leadership of the project earlier this year to try to save it so the French seem to be a bit overwrought.

Nuclear propulsion makes a lot a sense for Australia considering the amount of territory it needs to cover. The question now is what will actually develop. The best option would be to sell the Virginia class design to Oz but that would be too sensible. I could see Oz insisting on designing it's own which would add many years and additional billions to the cost. We'll also need to see what the UK will be offering since the Astute class is less capable than Virginia.
From what I have seen/read, it seems that they will modify a UK design. Given recent CCP threats, we should sell them at least two older SSBNs, along with a load of missiles.
The Astute class will be finished by then. The UK may be working on a new SSN design by then which could make sense to join in the development. It still would be more expensive than buying Virginia or whatever the US will be building then since there are grater economies of scale and greater opportunities to build for all members of the class. But, warship construction tends to be plagued by nationalistic leanings even when it adds greatly to the cost. Oz could buy Virginia's off the line for probably half or less of what they'll end up paying to build at home.

Oz has said they have no intention of possessing nuclear weapons and we won't have any boomers to sell until the Columbia class comes on line. Even then, the Ohio's are getting quite old and would need a lot of expensive work to extend their lives. It'd be cheaper to buy new.

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

Whoa! France just recalled its ambassadors from both the US and Australia over this sub deal.

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Franco-American alliance? And if so, could this be the beginning of a French realignment with China and/or Russia?

And what about NATO? Can the alliance survive a break in Franco-American relations?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/france- ... -deal.html

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