A fourth turning leads to total war where every possible weapon will be used. This means nuclear war and other war with tech we can't imagine right now.Navigator wrote: ↑Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:50 amI certainly understand your opinion. It is the accepted one within the vast majority of military and political circles. And you do a very good job of explaining it and the rationale behind it.Xeraphim1 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:31 pmFrom your previous post it's going to come down to opinion and I'm not going to try changing your mind.
As for ammunition, there is no real need for government owned plant for small arms ammunition because there is a lot of private manufacturing. The US government already buys a lot because private companies are more efficient.
As for artillery ammunition, there has not been a lot of production because there hasn't been a lot of consumption. And much of what has been produced is precision ammunition. The US has no intention of fighting a WW II type artillery battle because it doesn't have to. Your arguments are similar to decrying the fact that the US doesn't have huge stocks of 500 lb bombs any more and in a WW II style bombing campaign would not be able to supply 500 plane type raids on enemy cities. And that's because there is no intention of ever mounting such raids.
And I'll repeat, the only target for mass artillery fire right now is... Russia. Those shells are doing exactly what they were intended to do - destroying Russian personal and equipment. Just it isn't US troops doing the firing.
Now, I will agree that there are too many bottlenecks and single points of failure in our supply chains. Like everybody else, the military adopted methods to lower cost at the expense of robustness. Blame various presidents and particularly Congress for that.Perhaps there will be sufficient awareness now to actually do something about that.
In short, I believe that these views can be summarized as follows:
1. Total War is no longer a possibility as no-one can afford to engage in it.
2. Wars will be short, as no-one really has the ability to engage in a large protracted one.
3. Our modern technology has made old ways of fighting completely obsolete.
4. Drafts and other full mobilization measures are no longer viable.
I, on the other hand, believe the following:
1. Total War happens when Major Powers start shooting directly at one another. Neither is willing to back down due to the internal political ramifications of doing that.
2. As a result of number 1 above, Major Power wars tend to last years, as one side must become completely impotent for the war to end.
3. Modern technology will just add to the lethality of what happens on the battlefield.
4. Nations will use everything at their disposal once they believe their existence (or the existence of those in power) is at risk.
As I have stated before, this thinking that wars will be short, that no-one can afford a major one, and that level heads will ultimately prevail is what people have thought before every major war, and they all end up following the four points I just outlined.
However, as I have also stated before, I do hope that you are right, and that I can enjoy a care-free retirement.
Your four points is a generational view coming from those who haven't seen total war so they can't understand it.
A smart country would be putting GD to use and by understanding what total war with China is going to look like, prepare for it now. German production reached its peak in 1944 when they were manufacturing their equipment underground. Germany was able to do this while having little air defense and the allies could bomb Germany at will.
Since we know that total war with China means American cities are going to be destroyed, along with manufacturing for the war machine, we should be building underground right now.