Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: China a leaky boat

> China needs land bridges to attack Japan: either sweep through
> Korea and then land troops in Fukoka or take Taiwan and start
> island hopping north.

> China's military is substandard. Everything about it is. The
> officer corps is highly politicized and deeply corrupt. The PLA
> runs factories and exports goods. The original intent was to build
> their own supply chains, but instead they use the manufacting
> ability to produce plastic junk for Bed, Bath, and Beyond.

> China will use nukes quickly because they know there army is 3rd
> rate. Also, the ethnic composition of the army WILL cause
> problems. China is a leaky boat.

This adds to my general impression, that has been growing in my mind
for years, that the Chinese Communists are becoming increasingly
desperate, and have no way to deal with the increasing number of
crises.

Articles and analysts discussing China's policies usually say
something like "it makes sense for the Chinese to do this or that" or
"China's strategy is such and such." My view is that the Chinese
Communists have no strategy, except to build more and more weapons
systems, and they're simply striking out in any direction. A major
example of this is that China has 21 active border dispute with
neighboring countries. That's insane.

There's one more thing that I'm very suspicious about -- the spread of
Covid within China. My suspicion is not based on evidence. It's
based on the lack of reports. The delta variant is spreading through
Asia like wildfire, but we don't hear anything about China, or about
its spread through China's military.

What I do hear about is that China's vaccines, Sinovac and Sinopharm.
There are many suspicions in Asia that these vaccines aren't very
effective, and so they wouldn't be very effective within China either.

*** Covid: Is China's vaccine success waning in Asia?
*** https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-57845644

*** Indonesia is the new COVID epicentre, so some are heading
*** to the US to skip the vaccine queue
*** https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-18/ ... /100288904

So all of this contributes to a view of incompetence, or the "leaky
boat" analogy that you used.

Unfortunately, that just makes China more dangerous. A cornered,
desperate animal is the most dangerous of all, and most likely to
strike out and try to kill you.

[Guest]

I have friends in the Dominican Republic and they have allreceived Sinovac or Sinopham, and the doctors have told all of them they will need a 'booster shot'. The 'booster shot'? Pfizer-Moderna.

Sinovac doesn't work.

[Xeraphim1]

The Gateway Pundit is promoting a theory that COVID-19 originated at Fort Detrick... but it was smuggled out by a CCP spy who had infiltrated the base through Fauci's NIAID Integrated Research Facility.

Interesting way to reconcile the "China did it" and "America did it" theories.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/0 ... t-detrick/

I think it would be more accurate to say that there are Chinese scientists employed in various US research organizations who still have links to Chinese research organizations and that there is no real separation between civilian and military programs in China. The story dod not make the accusation that Covid 19 was developed in the US.

[Xeraphim1]

On the nuclear weapons front I was watching a video on youtube about the sixth generation fighter plane the U.S. is working on. One thing that peeked my interest is that on the two videos that I saw one of the things they talked about was that supposedly as part of the weapons systems on this fighter it was going to have a laser canon or gun. The fighter is going to have a battery system to provide the electricity needed for the laser.

There is speculation that such weapons may be available in the next 10-15 years. It's more likely there would be a series of capacitors fed by the engine since a battery wouldn't be able to store enough power for multiple shots.

I have read articles on the U.S. military working more and more on laser weapons and have also read articles on navy ships switching to natural gas powerplants in order to power not just the ships engines but also weapons systems like rail guns. This makes me think that perhaps they are also fitting the ships with laser based systems for defensive and offensive tasks. This could also be used against nuclear weapons. Again I would like to hear what you guys think.

Not natural gas (you would need cryonic storage for that) but newer ships are using much larger power plants to generate additional electricity. The Zumwalts, though otherwise a failure as a class, have a lot of excess electric generation as do the new Constellation class frigates and the Ford carriers. The USN just dropped rail guns from it's latest budget. They got some good results but the barrel wear is ridiculous; you'd have to replace it after 10-15 shots so it just isn't worth it right now. For laser weapons, there's ODIN (Optical Dazzling Interdictor) which is testing on three Burke class destroyers. It's designed to blind E/O and IR sensors. There's also Laser Weapon System Demonstrator (LWSD) tested on USS Portland by shooting down a drone and High Energy Laser and Integrated Optical-dazzler and Surveillance system (HELIOS) which was scheduled to be installed on USS Little Rock.

Here's a couple good articles:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4 ... ler-system
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3 ... om-fiction

[Xeraphim1]

China needs land bridges to attack Japan: either sweep through Korea and then land troops in Fukoka or take Taiwan and start island hopping north.

China's military is substandard. Everything about it is. The officer corps is highly politicized and deeply corrupt. The PLA runs factories and exports goods. The original intent was to build their own supply chains, but instead they use the manufacting ability to produce plastic junk for Bed, Bath, and Beyond.

China will use nukes quickly because they know there army is 3rd rate. Also, the ethnic composition of the army WILL cause problems. China is a leaky boat.

While still not up to Western standards, China's military is much more professional that even 20 years ago, let alone 30. It's been copying the best features of Western doctrine and technology and is similar to where the US was some 25-30 years ago. What it doesn't have is real organic experience since it's effectively been at peace for a long time. And yes, it still is politically managed and yes it still has political officers who can override local commanders. That means it would be less effective than Western militaries, but it would be a mistake to call it third rate.

Invading Japan would be exceedingly difficult because China doesn't have sufficient amphibious troop lift and also would not be able to achieve air superiority for other than short periods. Plus the fact that everyone in the neighborhood is buying anti-ship missiles like they're on sale.

[utahbob]

John, You might find this interesting. Written by a Chinese expat living in NYC and Australia. Confirms your China versus Japan with update CCP policy changes. https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/2 ... l-strategy

[John]

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: Invading Japan

> Invading Japan would be exceedingly difficult because China
> doesn't have sufficient amphibious troop lift and also would not
> be able to achieve air superiority for other than short
> periods. Plus the fact that everyone in the neighborhood is buying
> anti-ship missiles like they're on sale.

So this is exactly the reason why the "Japan Exception Theory" is
being advanced. The Chinese Communists would not invade Japan with
troops. Instead, they would "invade" Japan with continuous nuclear
bombing. It's obvious that China would do this, since Japan has no
nuclear weapons, and couldn't respond.

However, it's interesting that Japan has displayed a "Screw you - just
try it" attitude. I keep talking about the Chinese thirst for revenge
against Japan, but I also have the impression that the Japanese are
thirsting for a repeat of its war against China. The people in these
two countries REALLY hate each other, and they're willing to show it.

*** 16-Jul-2021 World View: Nuclear war
*** viewtopic.php?p=62633#p62633

[John]

** 19-Jul-2021 World View: More on invading Japan

> John, You might find this interesting. Written by a Chinese expat
> living in NYC and Australia. Confirms your China versus Japan with
> update CCP policy
> changes.
> https://www.jenniferzengblog.com/home/2 ... l-strategy

The article contains this quote from a Chinese military official:

> "When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene
> by force, even if it only deploys one soldier, one plane and one
> ship, we will not only return reciprocal fire, but also start a
> full-scale war against Japan. We will use nuclear bombs first. We
> will use nuclear bombs continuously until Japan declares
> unconditional surrender for the second time.

> What we want to target is Japan’s ability to endure a war. As long
> as Japan realizes that it cannot afford to pay the price of war,
> it will not dare to rashly send troops to the Taiwan Strait."

Once again, this is totally delusional. The Japanese have an enormous
amount of conventional warfare capability, and they might even be able
to defeat the Chinese without nuclear weapons. At any rate, there is
absolutely no possibility that "Japan declares unconditional surrender
for the second time." The Japanese will fight to the last bullet.

Not to mention that it wouldn't be long before the US got involved.

[DaKardii]

The story dod not make the accusation that Covid 19 was developed in the US.

It did not outright state so, but it did strongly imply that such a scenario was a real possibility.

[Burner Prime]

The Taliban is certain to regain control of Afghanistan, probably in a few month's time.

There are hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of refugees spread across the world. The US has nearly 100,000 and is facilitating many more. This is exactly the same as the Viet Namese "Boat People" period, where tens of thousands fled after the war and ended up in the US. There will be no one to stop the Taliban advance, who already control up to 85%.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/1 ... nia-500150

Per Psaki, The US will be absorbing 20,000 workers PLUS families, so estimate over 100,000 more Afghan refugees in the near-term and more in the long-term:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/1 ... of-country

Instead of demanding the Afghanis fight to defend and build their country, we do what we did in Viet Nam: We cut and run, and allow the best and brightest to flee as well, ensuring a total collapse. But we have high hopes that begging and pleading will make a difference:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15630342/ ... ghanistan/

But don't worry, when WWIII hits, according to John, the global refugees from every third world country will magically stop doing what they always do, FLEE, and will hunker down, lock arms with the infidel US troops, and bravely fight to the death to defend the Western way of life. Even though they hate the decadent and faithless West, have no fear they will fight and die for Brittany, Hip Hop, porn, vidya games and apple pie, because reasons.