Generational Dynamics World View News

[Navigator]

Who said anything about a democratic uprising? I'm talking about someone shooting Putin in the head an ending the war and sanctions. Nothing more than that.

If someone out of the blue is willing to sacrifice themselves to kill Putin, only someone from Putin's entourage is going to take over. Putin has been in charge for 20 years. The only people with any semblance of power were picked by him. None of them are "good guys".

If someone from his stable of cronies assassinates him, it will only be with a mandate to do better in the Ukraine war.

Killing Putin isn't going to fix everything. In fact, it will fix very little.

No. The oligarchs are buckling under all of this, and they see Russia sliding backwards into dire poverty and isolation. They don't want to be part of that. They are looking for a way out. They want the war to end. The Russian army wants the war to end.

The Russian Oligarchs don't give a crap about Russia. They have been plundering it for decades. They all have their wealth at Putin's pleasure. If Putin goes, the next guy could confiscate their wealth.

They may want to go back to the "old ways" but that isn't going to happen, even though Putin is telling them that (BTW, that's why the Russians blew up their pipeline, so that when they can blame "terrorists" for cutting off gas to Europe, in the false belief that when the war is over, things can go "back to normal").

The Russian Army only wants the war to end at this point so that they can rebuild and refit. They are not going to go back to the original border and say "oh well". They will treat this like Finland 39/40.

You are putting American values into the minds of Russians, which is a common mistake. Other cultures are NOT Americans.

[Guest]

If someone out of the blue is willing to sacrifice themselves to kill Putin, only someone from Putin's entourage is going to take over. Putin has been in charge for 20 years. The only people with any semblance of power were picked by him. None of them are "good guys".

If someone from his stable of cronies assassinates him, it will only be with a mandate to do better in the Ukraine war.

Killing Putin isn't going to fix everything. In fact, it will fix very little.

No. The oligarchs are buckling under all of this, and they see Russia sliding backwards into dire poverty and isolation. They don't want to be part of that. They are looking for a way out. They want the war to end. The Russian army wants the war to end.

The Russian Oligarchs don't give a crap about Russia. They have been plundering it for decades. They all have their wealth at Putin's pleasure. If Putin goes, the next guy could confiscate their wealth.

They may want to go back to the "old ways" but that isn't going to happen, even though Putin is telling them that (BTW, that's why the Russians blew up their pipeline, so that when they can blame "terrorists" for cutting off gas to Europe, in the false belief that when the war is over, things can go "back to normal").

The Russian Army only wants the war to end at this point so that they can rebuild and refit. They are not going to go back to the original border and say "oh well". They will treat this like Finland 39/40.

You are putting American values into the minds of Russians, which is a common mistake. Other cultures are NOT Americans.

I wasn't born or raised in America. I used to live in Russia.

[Navigator]

Russians are not Western Europeans either. I doubt you even speak Russian.

[Guest]

Russians are not Western Europeans either. I doubt you even speak Russian.

[guest]

How do you assess the Pacific front and the European action's effect on the Pacific side? Are they thinking twice after seeing strength or waiting for our strength to be diminished sufficiently? Thanks for the update and please try more frequently if you get the chance.

I think that the Chinese would like to fully assess what happened in Ukraine and why, and then make adjustments to their tactics and strategy.

But I think that their hand will be forced once the economic crisis hits, and they will attempt to blame that on America and then try to divert attention by actually engaging militarily.

The two things that I am waiting for to happen next are:
1. A major economic crisis
2. Major political upheaval in the USA

The underpinnings of an economic crisis are currently present. Anything can tip things, as was seen in the UK over the last couple of weeks. The current ratcheting up of interest rates coupled with the massive amounts of government, corporate and private debt make such a crisis inevitable. We are just waiting for the spark that sets off the whole room filled with gasoline vapor.
(And as bad as it will be for the US, it will be much much worse for China)

I think that the major political upheaval will come when the government arrests Trump. He will call on his ardent supporters to riot and disrupt the government, which they will undoubtedly do. This will make it look to China like the US is in chaos (which it could very well be) and that they can attack while the US is distracted by internal disorder.

Both of these things can happen now at any time.

Aren't you the guy who said the Russians would be in Berlin by last summer and refugees would be pouring into Spain, the Baltics would be occupied and Putin would be using Boris Johnson's skull for a drinking cup? Wasn't NATO supposed to be down to slingshots by July?

That hasn't happened.

And now you expect people to believe all of this?

GTFO.

Trump could only rally a few hundred people when he was still president, how will he rally millions to fight for him now? I think the charges against Trump are part of a witch hunt, but I'm not going to storm the Bastille for him. I find it hard to believe anyone else will.

When will you admit that your analysis has been way off?

[Bob Butler]

The Russian Army only wants the war to end at this point so that they can rebuild and refit. They are not going to go back to the original border and say "oh well". They will treat this like Finland 39/40.

You are putting American values into the minds of Russians, which is a common mistake. Other cultures are NOT Americans.

France was not America. Germany was not America. Japan was not America. All of them still aren't, but they have picked up much of the Enlightenment values. History changes cultures. War is no longer cost effective. Hasn't been for some time. Just ask Napoleon or Hitler.

I suspect one element of the US culture might become relevant, one that Grant was famous for and that FDR and Churchill pushed. Unconditional Surrender Grant. The west when it gains an advantage pushes it. While Putin may have started the Ukraine conflict, I am doubtful that he can end it at whim save by retreating behind the old borders, especially if he tries to survive by continuing the conflict. The draft dodgers are looking for borders to cross. Those who failed to draft dodge are surrendering as soon as they contact the enemy. Putin's control of Russia is weakening.

By the way, what have Napoleon and St Bernadette of Lourdes have in common? Decades after their death, their bodies were exhumed and it was discovered that two miracles had happened. Neither body had aged, had rotted, as is usual and expected. Great wonder and amazement, save that some knew that if you died of arsenic poisoning, your body tends to kill microbes that try to invade it... St Bernadette had a major tumor, and was dying a slow painful death. Arsenic poisoning might be considered mercy, though you would not speak of it. I suspect the motivation behind Napoleon's death was less benign.

[Xeraphim1]

Who said anything about a democratic uprising? I'm talking about someone shooting Putin in the head an ending the war and sanctions. Nothing more than that.

If someone out of the blue is willing to sacrifice themselves to kill Putin, only someone from Putin's entourage is going to take over. Putin has been in charge for 20 years. The only people with any semblance of power were picked by him. None of them are "good guys".

If someone from his stable of cronies assassinates him, it will only be with a mandate to do better in the Ukraine war.

Killing Putin isn't going to fix everything. In fact, it will fix very little.

Since Putin has spent the past two decades preventing any possible successor from arising, anyone taking over would need to spend years consolidating power. The war in Ukraine is not as popular as you might think, especially since the mobilization which is now affecting ordinary people. It's easy to be in favor of a war when it has no effect on you, less so when it is you, or your son/husband out there dying. Crimea might be a sticking point, but I could see a successor telling the DPR and LPR that they're out of luck and withdrawing all Russian troops from everything except Crimea. And maybe even that one if things are bad enough. Doing so would probably leas to relaxation or suspension of the sanctions against Russia which would make consolidation easier.

[Xeraphim1]

If someone out of the blue is willing to sacrifice themselves to kill Putin, only someone from Putin's entourage is going to take over. Putin has been in charge for 20 years. The only people with any semblance of power were picked by him. None of them are "good guys".

If someone from his stable of cronies assassinates him, it will only be with a mandate to do better in the Ukraine war.

Killing Putin isn't going to fix everything. In fact, it will fix very little.

No. The oligarchs are buckling under all of this, and they see Russia sliding backwards into dire poverty and isolation. They don't want to be part of that. They are looking for a way out. They want the war to end. The Russian army wants the war to end.

The Russian Oligarchs don't give a crap about Russia. They have been plundering it for decades. They all have their wealth at Putin's pleasure. If Putin goes, the next guy could confiscate their wealth.

They may want to go back to the "old ways" but that isn't going to happen, even though Putin is telling them that (BTW, that's why the Russians blew up their pipeline, so that when they can blame "terrorists" for cutting off gas to Europe, in the false belief that when the war is over, things can go "back to normal").

The Russian Army only wants the war to end at this point so that they can rebuild and refit. They are not going to go back to the original border and say "oh well". They will treat this like Finland 39/40.

You are putting American values into the minds of Russians, which is a common mistake. Other cultures are NOT Americans.

The oligarchs want to protect their wealth and live comfortable lives someplace that isn't Russia. I could totally see them switching loyalty in exchange for keeping what they have. It would be no change from what they have right now. The Russian army has no illusions about how it is doing in Ukraine. They can see that the international opinion of the Russian military has plummeted due to its poor performance while it has lost huge amounts of its best equipment. They're digging 800 T-62s out of storage, a tank obsolete 40 years ago, because there is very little left. Russia can't dominate its neighbors because they see that Russia doesn't have the capacity and China is making moves to take over that role in Central Asia. In any case, the Army is thoroughly dominated by whomever rules in Moscow.

[Navigator]

Russians are not Western Europeans either. I doubt you even speak Russian.

I do have to start by apologizing for being less than civil. I will do better at keeping things at a the proper level of a debate.

I do this with Bob and Xeraphim, and I should do it with you too.

My underlying issue (this is not an excuse) is that I went through years of seeing good people getting killed and maimed because decision makers were listening to middle-east experts who told them that Iraq and Afghanistan could easily change to functioning democracies, when everything about their cultures said this would never happen.

Their reasoning was always backed by "we have degrees in Middle Eastern Studies, and we lived there" (though mostly it was at the embassy and their dealings were with pro-American exceptions to the cultural norms).

And look how Iraq (now an Iranian puppet) and Afghanistan (Taliban controlled) turned out.

[Navigator]

How do you assess the Pacific front and the European action's effect on the Pacific side? Are they thinking twice after seeing strength or waiting for our strength to be diminished sufficiently? Thanks for the update and please try more frequently if you get the chance.

I think that the Chinese would like to fully assess what happened in Ukraine and why, and then make adjustments to their tactics and strategy.

But I think that their hand will be forced once the economic crisis hits, and they will attempt to blame that on America and then try to divert attention by actually engaging militarily.

The two things that I am waiting for to happen next are:
1. A major economic crisis
2. Major political upheaval in the USA

The underpinnings of an economic crisis are currently present. Anything can tip things, as was seen in the UK over the last couple of weeks. The current ratcheting up of interest rates coupled with the massive amounts of government, corporate and private debt make such a crisis inevitable. We are just waiting for the spark that sets off the whole room filled with gasoline vapor.
(And as bad as it will be for the US, it will be much much worse for China)

I think that the major political upheaval will come when the government arrests Trump. He will call on his ardent supporters to riot and disrupt the government, which they will undoubtedly do. This will make it look to China like the US is in chaos (which it could very well be) and that they can attack while the US is distracted by internal disorder.

Both of these things can happen now at any time.

Aren't you the guy who said the Russians would be in Berlin by last summer and refugees would be pouring into Spain, the Baltics would be occupied and Putin would be using Boris Johnson's skull for a drinking cup? Wasn't NATO supposed to be down to slingshots by July?

That hasn't happened.

And now you expect people to believe all of this?

GTFO.

Trump could only rally a few hundred people when he was still president, how will he rally millions to fight for him now? I think the charges against Trump are part of a witch hunt, but I'm not going to storm the Bastille for him. I find it hard to believe anyone else will.

When will you admit that your analysis has been way off?

I do still believe that the Russians will eventually get into Europe, and that there will be a massive refugee problem. Also that the Russians would occupy the Baltics, and that NATO, when it is pressed, will have a major ammunition shortage crisis.

I also do believe that we will see some major political turmoil in the US, bad enough that the Chinese will think they have an opening while the country is domestically distracted.

Obviously, I said nothing about Boris Johnson's skull, nor slingshots, nor July. I believed that October could be the time that things started, but have admitted that predictions like this can easily be months or years off. As I mentioned before, if someone had predicted WW2 to start in 1936, would they really have been wrong?

So lets go through things calmly, point by point.

The Russians getting into Europe is based on WW3 starting. That hasn't exactly happened yet. At this point, the Russians cannot even get anywhere in Ukraine. That is because that even now, they have not yet taken the draconian measures I believe that they needed to.

They need to go through a national mobilization, not just of their manpower, but of all sectors. They have not done so, yet. And their current mobilization is being run by incompetents.

In fact, Russia currently seems to be playing the role of Austria-Hungary in WW1, which was also run by incompetents. Their army also failed spectacularly in Poland/Ukraine in 1914. Then the real power (Germany) showed up, and helped their increasingly weak and incompetent ally in every single theater (Poland/Ukraine, Serbia, Romania, Italy, Greece).

So maybe the Russians getting into Europe doesn't happen until WW3 starts and the Chinese prop up their increasingly weak ally.

European refugees heading to Spain could, at this point, happen even if WW3 doesn't start right away, as neither Germans nor Poles are going to be able to heat their homes this winter.

I do still believe that Europe/NATO is going to be militarily pressed during the upcoming war, and when it comes to that, their defenses will be found to be rather hollow. Part of this will be an ammunition shortage.

Next up is that I do believe that we in the US will shortly face both an economic crisis and a political one. You didn't take any exception to the economic crisis happening, so I will skip that.

My best guess as to what will cause the political crisis is the actual arrest of Trump. It could be something else, like the BLM/Antifa thing blowing up again. Or it could be some other kind of mess that involves say extreme Trump supporters versus Antifa. I think that many Trump extremists out there are ready to riot in their home cities and do BLM type disturbances if/when he is arrested. I think he is preparing them to do so right now.

Lastly, I will admit I was wrong about WW3 when Mr Niceguy-ovich Democratski takes over completely in Russia and they make peace with their neighbors while China also peacefully transitions to democracy.

I do still believe in the cycle theory of Generational Dynamics, which is that every 80 years or so, there is a MAJOR blow up. One that transcends the logic and reason of "wars are bad for everyone" (which is true, it has just not stopped wars, especially major ones from happening).