The impression I'm getting from Israel is that they've decided the world is always going to hate them for existing, so they might as well end things now. No matter how many times they get accused of genocide and war crimes, while the U.N. is silent about anything Hamas and Hezbollah do. Any sympathy Israelis might have had for Palestinians disappeared on October 7th. I knew the day would come that Israel would decide to take the gloves off.
I personally don't think we have much control over it. If not for U.S. pressure, they'd act even more severely, which held it back for a while, but the Israel-Hamas war is spreading. Iran's close to a nuclear weapon, and I consider it a good possibility Israel will attack their nuclear sites, with or without us. Even if they don't manage to destroy all their infrastructure, it'll set them back.
With the Ukraine war, a sizable number of soldiers on both sides are in their late 30s and even 40s. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now 43, and the average age of Russian losses is 38. Neither nation has millions of young men they can throw into the fray with reckless abandon. Russia might win, but unless Ukraine's lines collapse en masse, it'll be pyrrhic at best.
With a few exceptions like Poland, most of Europe has fallen back into its usual stupor. During the period where aid was blocked in Congress, there was a brief window where it looked like they'd take the lead in their defense. I said at the time that our aid bill provided them with a crucial 6-12 months' breathing room to gear up their own defense industry. However, they've mostly squandered it, decided that we've got it dealt with and they can go back to spending money on social programs. I'm disappointed, but not surprised. Similar to the 1930s, they don't want to believe any such thing could happen again.
XXXXXXXXXX
It's going to be ugly whoever wins next month. Trump's base is anti-Ukraine, but they're very pro-Israel. Kamala's supporters might favor giving Ukraine the support they need, but many are almost fanatically anti-Israel. There's been a shift in the Democratic Party over the last decade, with anti-semitism rearing its head once again.
It'd be best if we had a clear victor on Election Night, whoever it might be. However, I don't think that's going to happen. Polls have tended to underestimate Trump, and he's gained ground among minorities, contrary to Democratic hopes of a permanent majority. The gap we're seeing now is between the college-educated and non-college educated. 2000 was bad enough, and you always had those believing Bush cheated his way into the Presidency. It'll be far worse this time. We've already had 2 assassination attempts on Trump, with the media saying it's his own fault.
Generational Dynamics World View News
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Hillary Clinton is wrong — it’s all about the ‘November Surprise’
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/49 ... -nonsense/
Maybe Trump is seizing the momentum of the Middle East war about to unfold. Maybe he'll stop the Ukraine war somehow so that Russia is ready to shift the conflict. Maybe Iran will start fighting with the Sunni Arabs. It still looks rather absurd but it's what's predicted by GD and could very well come to pass.
We'll find out soon and will hear about it sometime much later. Assuming we make it and the story gets told in our lifetime. Because it's all about to get real. Hopefully readers are prepared for it whether they are trying to make it, or prepared enter the afterlife. Prayers and luck are in order.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/49 ... -nonsense/
Maybe Trump is seizing the momentum of the Middle East war about to unfold. Maybe he'll stop the Ukraine war somehow so that Russia is ready to shift the conflict. Maybe Iran will start fighting with the Sunni Arabs. It still looks rather absurd but it's what's predicted by GD and could very well come to pass.
We'll find out soon and will hear about it sometime much later. Assuming we make it and the story gets told in our lifetime. Because it's all about to get real. Hopefully readers are prepared for it whether they are trying to make it, or prepared enter the afterlife. Prayers and luck are in order.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
The betting odds are shifting significantly to Trump. The Harris 60 Minutes interview, plus the VP debates, and especially the Hurricane FEMA debacles seem to have moved things in the other direction for the Dems. Enough people are starting to figure out Harris/Walz.
Not enough people know about the FEMA non-response in Asheville NC, about how FEMA isn't responding because they have spent all their funding on illegal immigrants. It will be impossible for people to NOT know once this next monster Hurricane hits Tampa tonight/tomorrow. If people expect anything from the Federal Govt, its support during a major catastrophe. If Trump/Vance can hammer home that Biden/Harris spent all the FEMA money on illegals, that should be enough to get Trump over the wire.
Of the 4 people vying for national office, only Vance would be capable of competently bringing the country together and winning a major war. In the end this could be how it ends up. Trump is not in good health (although nowhere near as bad as Biden).
Trump would make things much more dangerous for Europe. He is still mad at the Ukrainians for not going after the Bidens, and he could be expected to significantly cut their support. Once Putin has Ukraine, and Trump decides not to support NATO, Europe is really in big trouble. Meanwhile, Trump would support Israel in taking out the rest of the big time terror organizations; what's left of Hamas, Hezbollah, and even the Iranians. And he would stand up to the Chinese.
Not enough people know about the FEMA non-response in Asheville NC, about how FEMA isn't responding because they have spent all their funding on illegal immigrants. It will be impossible for people to NOT know once this next monster Hurricane hits Tampa tonight/tomorrow. If people expect anything from the Federal Govt, its support during a major catastrophe. If Trump/Vance can hammer home that Biden/Harris spent all the FEMA money on illegals, that should be enough to get Trump over the wire.
Of the 4 people vying for national office, only Vance would be capable of competently bringing the country together and winning a major war. In the end this could be how it ends up. Trump is not in good health (although nowhere near as bad as Biden).
Trump would make things much more dangerous for Europe. He is still mad at the Ukrainians for not going after the Bidens, and he could be expected to significantly cut their support. Once Putin has Ukraine, and Trump decides not to support NATO, Europe is really in big trouble. Meanwhile, Trump would support Israel in taking out the rest of the big time terror organizations; what's left of Hamas, Hezbollah, and even the Iranians. And he would stand up to the Chinese.
-
spottybrowncow
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:06 am
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
I've heard the same, Navigator, and I certainly hope our sources are right.
The following clip is worth watching, although I found it a little terrifying. Fox interviewed Harris supporters at a rally, and asked them which candidate was better on immigration. They all said Harris was, and listed reasons such as "She has a detailed complex plan to deal with it, Trump has only rhetoric." Their almost universal disconnect from reality defied belief. Clearly, they never watch any news except MSNBC, as even CNN isn't that biased.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris ... der-crisis
The following clip is worth watching, although I found it a little terrifying. Fox interviewed Harris supporters at a rally, and asked them which candidate was better on immigration. They all said Harris was, and listed reasons such as "She has a detailed complex plan to deal with it, Trump has only rhetoric." Their almost universal disconnect from reality defied belief. Clearly, they never watch any news except MSNBC, as even CNN isn't that biased.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris ... der-crisis
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Very few people are actually looking for the truth. Most people now just accept "news" (in reality just position advocacy) that agrees with their standpoint. Very few people are capable of self introspection and the "maybe I was wrong" that can go along with it.
You have to be able to adjust your thinking and opinions when presented with the actual facts. Sadly, few do this. Instead, they entrench in their positions.
Thus you have people saying things like "Communism will work, if it is just implemented properly". They don't understand that communism is a con job that allows the leaders to turn into dictators. They just want SO MUCH for it to be true. But it isn't. It's a giant lie that ultimately squelches dissent against the leader. EVERY TIME.
Socialism and Big Government are similar in that they too are lies. Neither socialism nor big government is going to fix anything. It will just make it worse. People don't want to get this either.
One of the fundamental lies told today is that "the President runs the country". He (or she) does NOT. No one is "running the country". That's the point of our system. The President and Congress can impede progress and economic health, and that is it. They are either neutral, or they can make things worse. They don't make things better; for in the end only INDIVIDUALS collectively can do that.
Now, having said all of that, we are currently in a position where the majority of BOTH SIDES of the political divide have entrenched in their positions. I have come out and said what I believe is true about Trump, and he is extremely flawed. The problem now is that Harris is even more flawed.
I wish that the Republican party had gotten rid of Trump in 2020, but they did not. Instead they entrenched in numerous erroneous positions, at the behest of Trump. This has made things worse, not better.
We are going to get the leadership that we collectively deserve. At this point I hope its Trump/Vance, as Vance could potentially pull things out of the fire for a while. There is no hope with Harris/Waltz.
You have to be able to adjust your thinking and opinions when presented with the actual facts. Sadly, few do this. Instead, they entrench in their positions.
Thus you have people saying things like "Communism will work, if it is just implemented properly". They don't understand that communism is a con job that allows the leaders to turn into dictators. They just want SO MUCH for it to be true. But it isn't. It's a giant lie that ultimately squelches dissent against the leader. EVERY TIME.
Socialism and Big Government are similar in that they too are lies. Neither socialism nor big government is going to fix anything. It will just make it worse. People don't want to get this either.
One of the fundamental lies told today is that "the President runs the country". He (or she) does NOT. No one is "running the country". That's the point of our system. The President and Congress can impede progress and economic health, and that is it. They are either neutral, or they can make things worse. They don't make things better; for in the end only INDIVIDUALS collectively can do that.
Now, having said all of that, we are currently in a position where the majority of BOTH SIDES of the political divide have entrenched in their positions. I have come out and said what I believe is true about Trump, and he is extremely flawed. The problem now is that Harris is even more flawed.
I wish that the Republican party had gotten rid of Trump in 2020, but they did not. Instead they entrenched in numerous erroneous positions, at the behest of Trump. This has made things worse, not better.
We are going to get the leadership that we collectively deserve. At this point I hope its Trump/Vance, as Vance could potentially pull things out of the fire for a while. There is no hope with Harris/Waltz.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
** 13-Oct-2024 World View: Iran's Unraveling Era
It was 833 days ago that I woke up in
the morning and my legs no longer
worked, so I've been in a bed-coffin for
833 days. A few months later I was
hospitalized with a ruptured gall
bladder. They pumped me full of
antibiotics for a few months to keep the
infection from spreading, and that
seemss to have worked. But between
being sick and problems witn Windows-11
(which is a nightmare), I was unable to
post. So this is my first post in a
long time,
So I have nothing to look forward to
except another 833 days in this coffin.
It will not surprise anyone who has
known me for a while that I consider my
life to be pointless, and that I would
like to die, but I don't want to commit
suicide. So my plan is soon to enter
the Hospice program. Unfortunately,
that's no guarantee of death. Jimmy
Carter became a Hospice patient last
January, and just celebrated his 100th
birthday, and seems to be going strong.
I spend 16 hours a day watching the news
-- CNN, Fox News, CNBC, etc. -- and I've
come to view the events in Washington,
Ukraine, the Mideast, and elsewhere as a
panoramic movie, and the only thing
motivating me to want to stay alive is
that I very much want to see how it
ends, and how accurate the Generational
Dynamics analyses have been.
(The Suicide Conundrum is that
committing suicide may be good for the
person doing it, but is awful for the
people left behind, many of whom refer
to him as either a coward or a martyr,
depending on ideology. By entering the
Hospice program, my hope is that I'll
die quickly, but not by my own hand.)
So here's a bit of GD analysis:
The news in the last few days is that
Iran launched a barrage of ballistic
missiles at Israel, accompanied by
extremely belligerent rhetoric. The
attack was largely ineffective, since
Israel was able to use its Iron Dome to
knock almost all of them out of the sky.
Israel has promised harsh retaliation,
and has already assassinated multiple
members of the top Hezbollah leadership,
as well as hundreds of Hezbollah
fighters by means of a spectalar
sabotage attack with walkie-talkies and
other communications devices with
explosives installed. Israel's war
cabinet is meeting on Sunday to decide
the full extent of the retaliation, and
many in the international community have
expressed fears that Isreal will attack
Iran's oil and nuclear development
facilities, triggering a wider Mideast
war.
You may have noticed that Israel has
been fighting the Mideast war very
aggressively and belligerently, while
Iran has been pulling its punches,
relying on diplomacy (international
pressure on Israel), or on relatively
low-energy attacks on Israel through its
Hezbollah or Houthi proxies.
A lot of this can be explained by
differences in generational eras.
Iran's last generational crisis war
climaxed in 1989, so the country is just
entering an Unraveling era (Third
Turning), when the public mood typically
demands compromise. Israel's last
generational crisis war climaxed in
1949, so Israel is deep into a
generational Crisis era (Fourth
Turning).
As I've written many times, Iran's
population is sharply split between the
older and younger generations. The
older generation led the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution, and these are the
hard-core anti-Western leaders today.
The younger generation were the students
who were brutally beaten, torturen and
killed during peaceful anti-gevernment
protests, and who are now rising to
positions of power. Iran is thus ripe
for an Awakening era climax, a soft coup
that will result in regime change to a
pro-Western government.
It was 833 days ago that I woke up in
the morning and my legs no longer
worked, so I've been in a bed-coffin for
833 days. A few months later I was
hospitalized with a ruptured gall
bladder. They pumped me full of
antibiotics for a few months to keep the
infection from spreading, and that
seemss to have worked. But between
being sick and problems witn Windows-11
(which is a nightmare), I was unable to
post. So this is my first post in a
long time,
So I have nothing to look forward to
except another 833 days in this coffin.
It will not surprise anyone who has
known me for a while that I consider my
life to be pointless, and that I would
like to die, but I don't want to commit
suicide. So my plan is soon to enter
the Hospice program. Unfortunately,
that's no guarantee of death. Jimmy
Carter became a Hospice patient last
January, and just celebrated his 100th
birthday, and seems to be going strong.
I spend 16 hours a day watching the news
-- CNN, Fox News, CNBC, etc. -- and I've
come to view the events in Washington,
Ukraine, the Mideast, and elsewhere as a
panoramic movie, and the only thing
motivating me to want to stay alive is
that I very much want to see how it
ends, and how accurate the Generational
Dynamics analyses have been.
(The Suicide Conundrum is that
committing suicide may be good for the
person doing it, but is awful for the
people left behind, many of whom refer
to him as either a coward or a martyr,
depending on ideology. By entering the
Hospice program, my hope is that I'll
die quickly, but not by my own hand.)
So here's a bit of GD analysis:
The news in the last few days is that
Iran launched a barrage of ballistic
missiles at Israel, accompanied by
extremely belligerent rhetoric. The
attack was largely ineffective, since
Israel was able to use its Iron Dome to
knock almost all of them out of the sky.
Israel has promised harsh retaliation,
and has already assassinated multiple
members of the top Hezbollah leadership,
as well as hundreds of Hezbollah
fighters by means of a spectalar
sabotage attack with walkie-talkies and
other communications devices with
explosives installed. Israel's war
cabinet is meeting on Sunday to decide
the full extent of the retaliation, and
many in the international community have
expressed fears that Isreal will attack
Iran's oil and nuclear development
facilities, triggering a wider Mideast
war.
You may have noticed that Israel has
been fighting the Mideast war very
aggressively and belligerently, while
Iran has been pulling its punches,
relying on diplomacy (international
pressure on Israel), or on relatively
low-energy attacks on Israel through its
Hezbollah or Houthi proxies.
A lot of this can be explained by
differences in generational eras.
Iran's last generational crisis war
climaxed in 1989, so the country is just
entering an Unraveling era (Third
Turning), when the public mood typically
demands compromise. Israel's last
generational crisis war climaxed in
1949, so Israel is deep into a
generational Crisis era (Fourth
Turning).
As I've written many times, Iran's
population is sharply split between the
older and younger generations. The
older generation led the 1979 Great
Islamic Revolution, and these are the
hard-core anti-Western leaders today.
The younger generation were the students
who were brutally beaten, torturen and
killed during peaceful anti-gevernment
protests, and who are now rising to
positions of power. Iran is thus ripe
for an Awakening era climax, a soft coup
that will result in regime change to a
pro-Western government.
-
spottybrowncow
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:06 am
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
Great to hear from you John! Reading that post made me feel like we were back in the daily Web Log era.
I'm very sorry about your situation. We appreciate your insights greatly, even if provided very sporadically. Everyone here is waiting with you to see if Generational Dynamics is vindicated, even if we don't like the outcome.
I'm very sorry about your situation. We appreciate your insights greatly, even if provided very sporadically. Everyone here is waiting with you to see if Generational Dynamics is vindicated, even if we don't like the outcome.
-
Jack Edwards
- Posts: 132
- Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2009 1:47 pm
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
John,
Glad you could post. I'm sure the whole situation sucks. But I wanted to let you know - that you've made a difference in my life. I've been here reading what you and others write for 15+ years. It's enriched my knowledge of the world. Thanks for things you've done.
Regards Jack
Glad you could post. I'm sure the whole situation sucks. But I wanted to let you know - that you've made a difference in my life. I've been here reading what you and others write for 15+ years. It's enriched my knowledge of the world. Thanks for things you've done.
Regards Jack
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
John,
Thanks for posting again!
That's an excellent post explaining current conditions better than anything I've seen on any media anywhere. Really and without too much self aggrandizing we've got the best explanation of what's going on.
Please keep the updates and we pray for your health.
Thanks for posting again!
That's an excellent post explaining current conditions better than anything I've seen on any media anywhere. Really and without too much self aggrandizing we've got the best explanation of what's going on.
Please keep the updates and we pray for your health.
Re: Generational Dynamics World View News
John,
Good to hear from you, but saddened by the news of your condition and struggles. I want to let you know that you have created something great, and that it has been a conduit of help and understanding to thousands.
I agree with your decisions, and think you have chosen a wise course. I would do the same in your situation.
I saw the other day Netanyahu alluding to the tenuous hold that the old guard in Iran have on their country. There is a very high level spy inside the Iranian defense forces. So high level that it could even be the head of the Revolutionary Guard's Qud force, Qaani. He is evidently currently being interrogated for being a possible spy. Such high level finger pointing is dangerous as someone else in a powerful position could decide to lead a coup before they come for him.
Hopefully the Israeli response will be to hit at the Iranian leadership and their means of support, and do as little as possible to inflame the majority of the population, which wants to see the Mullahs go.
Meanwhile, kudos to the Israelis for taking the gloves off and going after Hamas and Hezbollah. These groups would never participate in peace. Never.
The US leadership (Biden, but really whoever is controlling him) was stupid enough to provide the Mullahs with additional support with the release of Billions.
Good to hear from you, but saddened by the news of your condition and struggles. I want to let you know that you have created something great, and that it has been a conduit of help and understanding to thousands.
I agree with your decisions, and think you have chosen a wise course. I would do the same in your situation.
I saw the other day Netanyahu alluding to the tenuous hold that the old guard in Iran have on their country. There is a very high level spy inside the Iranian defense forces. So high level that it could even be the head of the Revolutionary Guard's Qud force, Qaani. He is evidently currently being interrogated for being a possible spy. Such high level finger pointing is dangerous as someone else in a powerful position could decide to lead a coup before they come for him.
Hopefully the Israeli response will be to hit at the Iranian leadership and their means of support, and do as little as possible to inflame the majority of the population, which wants to see the Mullahs go.
Meanwhile, kudos to the Israelis for taking the gloves off and going after Hamas and Hezbollah. These groups would never participate in peace. Never.
The US leadership (Biden, but really whoever is controlling him) was stupid enough to provide the Mullahs with additional support with the release of Billions.
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