Generational Dynamics World View News

[DaKardii]

We know in general terms what will happen next, but the timing is impossible to pin down.

It is also happening in "slow motion", that is things don't change much in real day-day time. For example, we know that the progression in Europe pre-WW2 was:
Hitler becomes Chancellor
Hitler become Dictator
Germany re-occupies Rhineland
Germany annexes Austria
Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia
Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia
Germany declares full mobilization
Germany invades Poland.

But its not like these things happened on Sunday, the next on Monday, the next on Tuesday and so on. There were weeks and months in between.

Here's further context as to when these events occurred, and how far apart they were.

Hitler becomes Chancellor (January 1933)
Hitler become Dictator (August 1934; +1 year, 7 months)
Germany re-occupies Rhineland (March 1936; +1 year, 7 months)
Germany annexes Austria (March 1938; +2 years)
Germany declares full mobilization (September 1938; +6 months)
Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia (September 1938; +a few weeks)
Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia (March 1939; +6 months)
Germany invades Poland (September 1939; +6 months)

[FullMoon]

I think that a lot of us are just waiting for the other shoe(s) to drop.

The Russians are figuring out viable modern tactics. So are the Ukrainians, they just have less in terms of supply assets. I've always thought that modern war with two competent sides would look like a high tech version of WW1, and that is what we are seeing.

The Russians are inflicting serious attrition on the dug in Ukrainians. In the WW1 model, the front will look relatively static until it breaks. At that point there is a "minor" forward movement of 5-10km, and then the front stabilizes again while the attacker has to reposition his artillery forward.

BTW, good sources of info on the front line situation is https://militaryland.net/, as well as https://deepstatemap.live/en#6.75/48.958/33.699

Outside of Ukraine we have the looming stock market/real estate bubble. Debt bubble (personal and governmental). Fed inability to tackle economic implosion. Chinese warmongering, as well as continued Russian war mongering. NATO cracking (Germany is trying to prevent a Russian loss, as are France, Hungary and Slovakia; while Turkey is trying to hamstring NATO in any expansion or intervention endeavor). Looming mass Famine. Japanese credit/bond crisis. Chinese expansion into Micronesia (which threatens supply lines to Australia and SE Asia). Domestic political problems over Abortion, Gun Control, Immigration, Gender Issues; Supply Chain and Urban area breakdown; all while the country is devoid of leadership.

We know in general terms what will happen next, but the timing is impossible to pin down.

It is also happening in "slow motion", that is things don't change much in real day-day time. For example, we know that the progression in Europe pre-WW2 was:
Hitler becomes Chancellor
Hitler become Dictator
Germany re-occupies Rhineland
Germany annexes Austria
Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia
Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia
Germany declares full mobilization
Germany invades Poland.

But its not like these things happened on Sunday, the next on Monday, the next on Tuesday and so on. There were weeks and months in between.

Right now we are in the equivalent of somewhere between "Germany annexes Sudetenland" and "Germany takes of the rest of Czechoslovakia". But, as we are seeing, these things don't necessarily happen in quick order. And the present is always somewhat different than the past (though not by much).

Thanks for this excellent post

[El Cid M]

** 20-Jun-2022 World View: Famine

There are 40 million tons of wheat sitting in silos in Ukraine that
can't be exported because the Russians are blocking the ports. As a
result, people in many countries are starving, with food increasingly
expensive, scarce or unavailable.

EU officials today said that Russia is guilty of war crimes for
forcing much of the world to starve.

Unless Russia is forced to release the wheat, maize and cooking oil
produced in Ukraine, there's going to be massive famines in multiple
countries this summer and fall. This will cause massive unrest.

Sri Lanka's meltdown continues, with food, fuel, and medicines so
expensive or scarce that they're out of reach for most people. Sri
Lanka is the poster child for China's Debt Trap Diplomacy, and now the
chickens are coming home to roost. Sri Lanka is negotiating with the
IMF for a $5 billion bailout, but the IMF is insisting on tax
increasing and subsidy reductions, which is not what the corrupt
government wants to do.

Sri Lanka is being called "the canary in the coal mine," because other
countries are headed in the same direction. There are already price
riots going on now in countries from Pakistan to Belgium.

Here in the United States, it's expected that the sh-t will hit the
fan on July 4, when families want to take road trips, but gas (petrol)
prices will be sky high and gas may even have to be rationed.

Every day, the Biden administration does something to turn the United
States into a third world sh-thole. Whether America can survive until
we can get rid of these pro-Confederacy white supremacist a--holes
remains to be seen.

A couple of other issues.

Bitcoin fell to the 17K range over the weekend, but has now recovered
to just above 20K. Bitcoin is being seen as a bellwether of the
global financial crisis as a whole.

Up until 2-3 weeks ago, it seemed that Ukraine was winning. But
Russia has changed strategy to massive genocide and destruction
through huge amounts of artillery.

Massive monsoon floods in Bangladesh and India causing unrest.

China is increasingly demanding that the Taiwan Strait be declared
Chinese waters rather than international waters. Over the weekend,
the US administration signaled that it will reject those demands, and
will continue Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONO) in the South
China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. This could give rise to a military
confrontation, if China chooses to be more and more belligerent.

China's "zero covid" policy (alluding to the Wuhan Coronavirus) is
looking more and more like a joke. The Chinese Communists are
conducting millions of covid tests every day, and if they find even
one case, then an entire building or city can be shut down and locked
down for several days.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2-9qlwSmm0[/youtube]

U.S. is only days away until an 'absolute explosion' on inflation: Pollster Frank Luntz

[Bob Butler]

Right now we are in the equivalent of somewhere between "Germany annexes Sudetenland" and "Germany takes of the rest of Czechoslovakia". But, as we are seeing, these things don't necessarily happen in quick order. And the present is always somewhat different than the past (though not by much).

The not by much part ignores that we are on an Age cusp. If there were four ages - Hunter Gatherer, Agricultural Empire, Industrial and Information - the change can be viewed as more than "somewhat". The desire to avoid a nuclear exchange, sit on aggressors and prevent war in Europe while not putting boots on the ground makes for a stronger reaction.

Mind you, Putin to date seems unaware of the difference...

[Zoomer go Brr]

Expect capitulation and appeasement if Taiwan is invaded by China. There’s likely not enough money and supplies to throw at that situation, plus China scares Washington more than Russia. It will take China invading Japan or North Korea invading South Korea for the current administration to get involved.

[Tom Mazanec]

The desire to avoid a nuclear exchange, sit on aggressors and prevent war in Europe while not putting boots on the ground makes for a stronger reaction.

Ah, Bob? Do you mean weaker reaction? How does fear of war make the reaction stronger?

[Tom Mazanec]

Putin says Russia is building the new world order right now
ByLeigh Mcmanus
15:24, 20 JUN 2022UPDATED18:16, 20 JUN 2022
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world- ... w-27282336

Russia warns Lithuania as Kremlin forces push into Ukraine's Donbas
By AFP
PUBLISHED: 12:46 EDT, 18 June 2022 | UPDATED: 10:57 EDT, 21 June 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/a ... -rage.html

Telegram is 'not a secure platform,' NATO-backed strategic comms chief warns
by Joel Gehrke, Foreign Affairs Reporter | | June 20, 2022 05:15 AM
| Updated Jun 20, 2022, 03:29 PM
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poli ... nato-warns

EXCLUSIVE: Mini 'terminator' robots are pitched into Ukraine’s bloody wars against Russian troops
ByChris HughesDefence and Security Editor
14:29, 20 Jun 2022
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new ... s-27281418

Ukraine Latest: Russia Says Seized US Soldiers Could Face Death
Bloomberg News
Tue, June 21, 2022, 1:51 a.m.·10 min read
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ukrai ... 10202.html

Was Iran behind siren cyberattacks in Jerusalem, Eilat?
By YONAH JEREMY BOB Published: JUNE 20, 2022 07:28
Updated: JUNE 20, 2022 21:20
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-709867

US, Iran in tense sea incident; Tehran preps new centrifuges
By JON GAMBRELL
today
https://apnews.com/article/politics-ira ... ebaf4156f1

[John]

** 21-Jun-2022 World View: World War II timeline in Asia

> We know in general terms what will happen next, but the timing is
> impossible to pin down.

> It is also happening in "slow motion", that is things don't change
> much in real day-day time. For example, we know that the
> progression in Europe pre-WW2 was:

> Hitler becomes Chancellor
> Hitler become Dictator
> Germany re-occupies Rhineland
> Germany annexes Austria
> Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia
> Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia
> Germany declares full mobilization
> Germany invades Poland.

> But its not like these things happened on Sunday, the next on
> Monday, the next on Tuesday and so on. There were weeks and
> months in between.

> Here's further context as to when these events occurred, and how
> far apart they were.

> Hitler becomes Chancellor (January 1933)
> Hitler become Dictator (August 1934; +1 year, 7 months)
> Germany re-occupies Rhineland (March 1936; +1 year, 7 months)
> Germany annexes Austria (March 1938; +2 years)
> Germany declares full mobilization (September 1938; +6 months)
> Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia (September 1938; +a few weeks)
> Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia (March 1939; +6 months)
> Germany invades Poland (September 1939; +6 months)

The above is the European timeline for World War II, but there's
also an Asian timeline that runs in parallel. This is significant
because today once again there are events in Europe and Asia
running in parallel.

Here are some of the events in the Asian timeline:

• 1931 Japan conquers and annexes Manchuria
• 1933 China's Nationalist president Chiang Kai-shek recognizes
  Japan's annexation of Manchuria
• 1933 Japan withdraws from League of Nations
• 1936 Japan sets up Unit 731, a chemical and biological warfare lab
  Harbin, Manchuria, and conducts experiments on some 3,000 human
  beings, mostly abducted Chinese, used as guinea pigs.
• 1937 Marco Polo Bridge incident, July 7-9, 1937
• 1937 Japan invades China, late July 1937
• 1937 Japan attacks Nanking, December 10, 1937
• 1937 Japanese warplanes bomb and sink the USS Panay on the
  Yangtze river, December 12, 1937. Wishing to remain neutral, the US
  accepts Japan's apologies and reparations.
• 1937 Battle of Nanking / Rape of Nanking, December 13, 1937
• 1940 US begins formal aid to China in support of its war with
  Japan
• 1940 US begins embargo, cuts off flow of oil, steel, iron and
  other commodities to Japan
• 1940 Japan signs the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy,
  ending America's formal neutrality and making China an ally of the
  West, September 27, 1940
• 1941 Japanese warplanes bomb Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941
• 1941 America declares war on Japan. Germany declares war on the
  United States.

[Trevor]

The winner in Ukraine is likely to be, barring something like a tactical nuclear strike, whoever runs out of equipment first. Russia's lost about a quarter of their operational vehicles in just under four months. They've got several thousand reserve tanks on paper, but most of them have been rotting in the fields for thirty years. Even if they could get some of them operational, which would take months of overhaul, it's not going to do them much good. Combined with all the losses of other vehicles, Russia can't sustain these losses.

But Ukraine can't, either. They've exhausted most of their ammunition and have more volunteers than they have equipment to support them, hence why they're begging us for more aid. Putin's counting on Western resolve breaking before his army runs out of equipment and men. Hate saying this, but he might be right. Germany, France, and Italy's support has been halfhearted at best. Apart from the U.S., Ukraine's main supporters have been Britain, Poland, and the Baltics. Britain's traditional foreign policy is preventing a single power from dominating the continent, and Poland knows if Ukraine falls, they'll be next.

I'm seeing more and more articles advocating for a negotiated end to the war, even if Ukraine loses a significant amount of territory. Some even suggest: "Tell them to give in to Russia, or we stop all aid!" Given the inflation we're undergoing, I have my doubts whether we'll be willing to suffer economically on behalf of some nations many can't find on a map, let alone have any understanding of.

As for a conflict between China and the U.S., neither of us have the manpower or equipment to fight a long conflict. For an historical example, during the First World War, both sides burned through their artillery stockpile in a couple months, dramatically underestimating the number of men and equipment they'd need. I expect China's strong enough to push us away from their coastline, but they don't have a chance of contesting our dominance in the ocean. It'd be interesting to hear Navigator's take on this.

[Bob Butler]

The desire to avoid a nuclear exchange, sit on aggressors and prevent war in Europe while not putting boots on the ground makes for a stronger reaction.

Ah, Bob? Do you mean weaker reaction? How does fear of war make the reaction stronger?

Hitler was taking on Britain and Russia together by the time the democracies were really gearing up. Putin was taking on the Ukraine when NATO started sanctions and arms support. Basically, one cannot let an autocratic aggressor get away with swallowing little chunks. One has to put up resistance faster. This is more prudence than fear. I would think, say, fear of nukes would lead NATO to do nothing, to let Russia grow to superpower status again. Prudence says sanction the Russian economy to death while sending enough weapons to generate stalemate.