23-Jan-13 WV-China warns Australia not side w/ U.S. in war

[John]

23-Jan-13 World View -- China warns Australia not to side with America in case of war


U.S. begins transporting French soldiers to Mali


** 23-Jan-13 World View -- China warns Australia not to side with America in case of war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 23#e130123




Contents:
China warns Australia not to side with America in case of war
Philippines seeks U.N. arbitration over South China Sea dispute
China increases surveillance in the South China Sea
U.S. begins transporting French soldiers to Mali

[solomani]

I am saying this as an Australian ... we don't take kindly to threats. Australia is as close to the 51st State as one can be. The two cultures are almost indistinguishable and in a war with China I think we would prefer to be "jackles" then lambs who would ultimately be essentially enslaved if the Tiger fell.

China also assumes AU has no nuclear capacity. I expect if they made that bet they would lose.

Separately I just had a discussion on this with 5 Chinese co-workers who have a better understanding of Chinese culture, history and thinking then I do and they fall in to the China doesn't want war camp. The USA is very transparent when it comes to foreign affairs but that's not how Chinese culutre works - they will say one thing and do something else. Talk of war indicates just bluster. China is just trying to save face globally by asserting itself and bragging about its military capability (which I still to believe to be infantile compared to all the other nations in the top 10 globally).

Of course intention is different to reality sometimes. Accidents still happen and a miss-step by either side could lead to war. But it's not what China wants. It's playing an Asian form of brinkmanship.

[Reality Check]

Senior Colonel Liu Mingfu of China's National Defence University has raised the specter of a nuclear war, and warned Australia not to side with America and Japan. Liu is not an official spokesman for China, but his views are approved. Referring to the dispute between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, Liu said that China was prepared to fight "to the death":

"America is the global tiger and Japan is Asia's wolf and both are now madly biting China. Of all the animals, Chinese people hate the wolf the most.

If this Japanese wolf again attacks America's Pearl Harbor or Australia's Darwin, how do you know it wouldn't receive another nuclear bomb? The world would hail if Japan receives such a blow.

I don't want to mention China here, as it is sensitive. ...

[Australia should play the role of a] kind-hearted lamb. ''Australia should never play the jackal for the tiger or dance with the wolf."

http://www.theage.com.au/world/china-co ... z2ImhGOIu8

Senior Colonel Liu Mingfu, of the National Defence University, blamed America's ''orchestration'' and Japan's ''militarism'' for rising tensions

...

''America is the global tiger and Japan is Asia's wolf and both are now madly biting China,'' Colonel Liu said.

...

China was a peaceful nation but it would fight to the death if seriously attacked, he said.

...

Asked about the People's Liberation Army fighting capability,
Colonel Liu referred to the PLA department that houses China's strategic missile and nuclear arsenal.

http://www.theage.com.au/world/china-co ... z2ImhGOIu8

[Reality Check]

China also assumes AU has no nuclear capacity. I expect if they made that bet they would lose.

What would be the point of having a very limited nuclear capability, and keeping it totally secret ???

Israel does not officially acknowledge having nuclear weapons, but they also make sure the whole world knows they have plenty of them.

Such limited stock piles are only good as deterrent or using them for a surprise, sneak attack on a country with very few, or a country with none.

[solomani]

China also assumes AU has no nuclear capacity. I expect if they made that bet they would lose.

What would be the point of having a very limited nuclear capability, and keeping it totally secret ???

Israel does not officially acknowledge having nuclear weapons, but they also make sure the whole world knows they have plenty of them.

Such limited stock piles are only good as deterrent or using them for a surprise, sneak attack on a country with very few, or a country with none.

It's a "well known secret" that the US has nukes in AU. At least within military circles. How many I have no idea. Australia also has the capability to build them. Finally a leaked document from years ago showed that one defensive plan for an invasion was to use tactical nukes to cripple the enemy army. That would imply AU has some nuclear capability.

It's all rumors of course but would you be surprised?

[solomani]

A consultant to the Pentagon and author of The Rise of China Versus The Logic of Strategy, Edward Luttwak, said China was ''grossly overestimating'' its military capability and underestimating the regional response.

Agree totally. War now for China will lead to destruction of China.

[solomani]

One other comment, I noticed on a few updates that you mention the USA/middle-eastern countries joining the USA in alliance. What makes you say that? Is it because picking China would open them up to conquest/retaliation from the WAllies ("Western Allies" which I just use for short-hand for the USA and her allies).

[OLD1953]

I have to think they mistranslated "will" as "knowledge" in that article about the Phillipines.

I strongly believe the US will not go to war with China for Vietnam unless Vietnam manages to sign a mutual defense treaty before China attacks. I also strongly believe the US would fight in whatever manner was indicated if China attacked any nation which has such a treaty. Extreme nationalism and partisanship lead to echo chamber thinking, where all anyone hears is the yes men shouting approval for whatever nonsense is the order of the day. The Chinese military and new party leaders seem to have really gone down that rabbit hole.

[Reality Check]

Agree totally. War now for China will lead to destruction of China.

All wars ? Of all kinds? that China participates in, will lead to the destruction of China ?

Some would say that China already won one war with the Philippines.

China was reported to be mobilizing for war with the Philippines, the U.S. negotiated a "deal" whereby by China and the Philippines both refrained from visiting the disputed reef with "government vessels from either side".

China has since operated government vessels in the seas around the disputed reef and prevented Philippine fishermen from fishing there, as the Filipinos had done for decades before the dispute. The Philippines has avoided sending any government vessels into the area to avoid being accused of violating the agreement and giving China an excuse to attack.

Some would say that China won that war. Clearly that war, if it was a war, did not destroy China.

Do you mean a short, brief, shooting war between say the Philippines and China that ends in a cease fire negotiated by Obama which freezes everything in place and creates a de-facto war zone where countries other than China are too afraid to explore for oil or other resources in the permanent "war zone" created by the cease fire. That would be a win for China resulting from a war where China was not destroyed.

Do you mean a one sided thermonuclear war between China and Vietnam where Vietnam pays a very high price and afterward a "neutral" Communist government, that does not side with any country against China, takes power in Vietnam. If China avoided a nuclear war with anybody but a few countries that had no nuclear arms, would that bring about the destruction of China?

If China engaged in a thermonuclear war with India where India exhausted their Thermonuclear weapons and then sued for peace, would that destroy China?

If China started a brief shooting war with Japan and it ended with a negotiated ceasefire under threat of nuclear war on Japan ( who has no thermonuclear arsenal ) by China ( who has the worlds third largest thermonuclear arsenal ) and it ends without Japan gaining any territory, and with the dispute over existing Japanese territories remaining unresolved, would that result in the destruction of China?

Only a full scale thermonuclear war between the United States and China, or between Russia and China would result in the partial destruction of both combatants. Under those conditions China would be destroyed ( at least partially ). But even a limited thermonuclear war where China did not surrender unconditionally would leave China the most populous country on earth with one of the largest economies and one of the most powerful military machines and one of the largest thermonuclear arsenals.

You, or I, may, believe the above scenarios are unlikely, but China may rationally believe that all aggressive scenarios will, in the long term, be in their favor because they are on the rise and the west is in decline. The sooner they act, the sooner they can lock up more world resources for themselves.

[Reality Check]

I have to think they mistranslated "will" as "knowledge" in that article about the Phillipines.

I had the same initial thought. But after doing some more research I located more complete quotes. That part of the sentence ( the knowledge part ) when viewed along with the paragraph around it, and the paragraphs before and after it makes perfect sense. China is saying that they understand the Law of the Sea better than the Philippines.

The part of the sentence that is disturbing is when they use words indicating that the Philippines will be grievously hurt by that lack of knowledge.

It is like a an armed mugger holding a gun on someone and saying: "If you do, or say, anything I do not like, I will call you a bad name and you will regret having said, or done something I did not like, for the rest of your short life".

It is China turning what is otherwise a statement of a legal position into a thinly veiled threat of violence.