Generational Dynamics World View News

[John]

** 13-Aug-2023 World View: FullMoon's China analysis

> If so, FullMoon, it seems like next
> season (autumn) would be the time,
> especially as the POTUS campaign
> should be heating up then.

> They need to give their forces a
> small but meaningful test. The
> islands hopping campaign talked
> about by Navigator would do that.
> And the zero COVID fiasco followed
> by a terrible reopening with economy
> tanking alarmingly fast, now
> followed by EPIC floods with many
> available videos to see vast areas
> destroyed in order to divert the
> water from Beijing all the while
> they hold their annual ocean side
> retreat without helping the flooded
> area a bit. They're even trying to
> cover up the fiasco but the videos
> and pictures are out. They've lost
> the mandate to govern and it's this
> situation that we've discussed as
> the prerequisite for starting a
> foreign entanglement. Something
> that can be achieved at their
> present level is just a few small
> islands far from anything. But they
> belong to Taiwan. Taking a few
> casualties should help build a
> narrative. Getting the Japanese
> involved would save their regime
> because then it would be personal to
> the average Chinese who continue to
> pass on an ancient grudge and desire
> to retribution.

This is a fantastically good analysis,
FullMoon, because it pulls together, in
one paragraph, all the threads of the
crisis that China is currently facing.
Xi must be getting really desperate and,
as you say, ancient forces are
converging. War can't be too far off.

[Another guest]

If China takes a few small islands, then sanctions will implode their economy. The country will be crippled. Island hopping won't be economically survivable.

For China, it will have to be all or nothing.

[Bob Butler]

If China takes a few small islands, then sanctions will implode their economy. The country will be crippled. Island hopping won't be economically survivable.

For China, it will have to be all or nothing.

I am still guessing nothing. China needs oil, yet they have built a navy to invade Taiwan, not to dominate the Indian Ocean. If they are to come out on top, they have to secure an ocean route from the Middle East. Then too, they need the remnants of globalism. This is one of the few parts of their economy still working. I doubt they would want to kill it. We'll see how desperate they get, but they seem to have painted themselves into a corner.

[FullMoon]

If China takes a few small islands, then sanctions will implode their economy. The country will be crippled. Island hopping won't be economically survivable.

For China, it will have to be all or nothing.

They're currently in a state of implosion. They're crippled already by a failed economic policy. But of course they'd like to have a foreign influence take the blame. And they have leverage, they go down so does everyone else. Decoupling isn't far progressed. That will buy them time to take some important territory and build up nationalism.

[JDav]

** 12-Aug-2023 World View: Russia and China

John, perhaps you didn't see my
earlier question. How does our
involvement in the Ukraine-Russia
war affect your prediction of a
Russia/India/US alliance against
China, et al? Russia has been known
to change sides when convenient, but
would they now, after suffering the
ignominies we've heaped on them?
And, after all this administration
has said and done, how could we
accept Russia as an ally? Just
saying, "Oceania is now at war with
Eastasia, therefore it's always been
at war with Eastasia," probably
won't cut it. We're not quite
there, yet.

To understand this, you have to
understand that generational crisis wars
are existential threats and so depend on
the attitudes of entire populations and
generations, rather than the attitudes
of the politicians.

I've described the situation in the
past. The Russian people hate the
Chinese people but love the European
people, even though Russia has been
invaded by both, the worst invasion
being the hated "Mongol Yoke" that
followed the 1209 Mongol invasion of
China, followed by an attack and
conquest of almost all the Russian
principalities, making them bitter
vassals of the Mongol Empire for two
centuries.

The major European invasions of Russia
were all non-crisis
(Awakening/Unraveling era) wars for
Russia, fought in conjunction with a
crisis war for Europe. These were the
Great Northern War with Sweden during
the European War of the Spanish
Succession (1701-14), Napoleon's
invasion (1812) following the French
Revolution, and Hitler's invasion during
World War II.

Russia's crisis wars for the last few
centuries were internal rebellions --
the Razin's peasant rebellion in the
1600s, Pugachev's Rebellion in the
1770s, the Crimean War in the 1850s, and
the Bolshevik Revolution in the 1910s.

Furthermore, as I've described in the
past, China has 20 border disputes with
its neighbors. This includes claiming
34,000 sq km of Kazakhstan's territory,
and also claiming much of Russia's Far
East, including Vladivostok, the home of
Russia's Pacific Fleet.

As I've described many times, Russia and
China are historic enemies, at war most
recently in the 1960s. They currently
have a kind of "marriage of convenience"
in opposition to the United States and
West, who oppose their respective
threatened invasions of Ukraine and
Taiwan. But it won't be long before the
historic differences turn to new
disagreements and war.

Another historical event to remember is
that Nazi Germany and Russia were allies
before WW II, but America and Russia
were allies during WW II.

** 5-Jul-20 World View -- India's list of China's border disputes and disagreements
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e200705

Thank you, John. If it's up to the people I would think that there will have to be some sort of regime change in Moscow, DC, or both.

Just saw this - https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/john- ... low-demise

Bolton says what I've been saying all along. Of course, his solution and my solution are polar opposites but at least someone else is seeing what I see!

[John]

** 15-Aug-2023 World View: China stops reporting youth unemployment rate

China announced a large stimulus
packaage today, to save its tanking
economy, which is in a deflationary
spiral.

China also announced that it will
"temporarily" stop reporting youth
unemployment rates, with the current
rate already officially above 21%.

This immediately reminded me of how Mao
Zedong closed China's statistical agency
in 1959, during the Great Leap Forward,
because it was reporting agricultural
data that he didn't want to hear. The
result was a famine that killed tens of
millions of innocent Chinese.


A Fascist like Justin Trudeau says that
he admiree China's form of government
because decisions can be made quickly
without going through a lengthy
legislative process. That's true when
the decision is a good one. But if the
decision is a bad one, then it cam't be
stopped, even if it's leading to
disaster.

*** China, facing record youth
> unemployment, says it will stop
> releasing data on it
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/chin ... -rcna99929

[Bob Butler]

If it's up to the people I would think that there will have to be some sort of regime change in Moscow, DC, or both.

Just saw this - https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/john- ... low-demise

Bolton says what I've been saying all along. Of course, his solution and my solution are polar opposites but at least someone else is seeing what I see!

Typically, there is a conservative regime change at crisis peak. I have long predicted that Putin, Xi and Trump have made big enough mistakes to force a change. All three are stubborn enough to pretend it isn't coming, but...

[Cool Breeze]

When foreign entities have your president and his family on the payroll, doesn't that mean your president and your country are the problem?

Russia always was a non-issue, because they were always the bogeyman that was lied about (FISA deep state fakery, Fusion GPS fraud by clinton and dnc, etc). The distraction was that Clinton and Biden crime families were selling access.

And people have the nerve to talk about "Trump" and other people, while crack is in the white house and the sons of our politicans are getting paid by Burisma et al? Weird to say the least.

[John]

** 16-Aug-2023 World View: China economic malaise

We're hearing a great deal of concern,
this morning on CNBC and Bloomberg tv,
about the increasing weakness in China's
economy.

The financial crisis of real estate
developer Country Garden is much worse
than the financial crisis that hit
Evergrande two years ago, because
Country Garden has four times as many
active development projects that are in
jeopardy.

During the last few days, the crisis
has begun to spread to the shadow
banking sector. These banks are not
directly controlled by the governmet,
and offer better financial terms.
However, one major shadow bank,
zhongronk(??) international bank, has
missed several bond payments in the last
few weeks, and angry investors in
Beijing have been conducting street
protests.

As we reported yesterday, China
announced that it will no longer report
youth unemployment rates. The official
rate is 21%, but the new announcement is
resulting in rumors that the actual rate
is much higher, especially right now
with the end of the college year.

China contagion is affecting Asian and
emerging market stocks, which are
falling today.

As a separate issue, Communist China's
Military chief is visiting Belarus for
three days of consultations, as Poland
is conducting military exercises along
its border with Belarus.

[Guest]

As a separate issue, Communist China's
Military chief is visiting Belarus for
three days of consultations, as Poland
is conducting military exercises along
its border with Belarus.

The Chinese general has slovenly appearance and a chinless and weak profile.