Generational Dynamics World View News

[Phong Tran]

I don't think the tariffs are enough justification for China to go into a full military conflict for Taiwan. I did a quick search on what percentage of China's trade is with the US, and while the US is their largest trading partner, they only comprise about 14.7% (State Council Information Office). It's not as if it is 30-40% or higher as the media seems to want to portray, whether as a doom and gloom for or against Trump's policies.

So, essentially, I think it would be a recession for both the US and China as their economies readjust to the 'new world order', but not as devastating to China as would seem, and definitely not to the point of trying to take Taiwan. Taking Taiwan would never be about just taking Taiwan, they would have to project their navy to control the entire south china seas, including enveloping Japan, with potential threat deployment to both Australia and the US, otherwise there'd really be no point.

The US has seemed to withdraw from the Ukraine conflict, however, seem to want to sabre rattle with Iran, if I were China, I would let them. The more enemies the US makes, the more countries that will, if not be friendly with China, at least won't view them as the enemy. I do see why Trump would want to address the trade imbalance, reshoring, etc, I just don't know if calling China out the way he did was the best way to go about it.

[FullMoon]

That's a good post Phong.
Tariffs themselves aren't necessarily going to be the justification for war but the Sino/US escalation that's been going on is now getting faster and more intense. They already have enough justification and they're just waiting for when the time is either favorable or when it appears that they'll only go down quickly and lose the chance. They're getting themselves into dire circumstances and they're literally adrift with corruption and infighting, together with a collapsing economy taking a massive gut punch from primary trading partners. The war will probably be as Phong suggests and that means they'll be going for broke. Risk aversion has been their strategy but we're seeing that might be changing. If anything happens in Taiwan this month it's probably Navigator's island taking strategy and a lengthy blockade. It's already a very dangerous situation with little chance of resolving without serious consequences for everyone.

[tim]

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... og2011.htm

This is also a good time to respond to the frequently heard statements like, "Countries A and B will never go to war, because trade between the two countries is good, and war will be bad for business." If this were true, there would never have been a war. What actually happens is that trade does not prevent a war. Instead, trade makes the situation worse, because the stronger trading partner uses trade as one more weapon of war, as we're seeing now in the case of China and Australia.

[Phong Tran]

I think western thinkers tend to underestimate the CCP. They've been in power for a long time, essentially with a single purpose that has never changed, to become a superpower such that no other nation can ever humiliate them the same way that they were during the opium wars, during WW2 and the following years. While President Xi may be the figurehead and seem like a dictator who is destined to fall the same way others have, the entire CCP party are not just followers and yes men, but a political force behind the scenes developing their country day by day towards that single goal.

Their rebuff of the tariffs from the US puts them in a favorable light to the rest of the world, essentially as the underdog nation in a david and goliath battle against the US Superpower. That image and positive propaganda, would ultimately be defeated if they then attacked Taiwan. They also have the benefit of the saying, "when your enemy is digging themselves into a hole, don't stop them". China had taken advantage of the US to build up their production capacity, and technological knowledge and research, but it was also US companies, capitalistic greed and previous US administrations that allowed it to go on for so long. This dynamic allowed the US to extend and pretend that their economy was strong and that their standard of living was not being eroded decade after decade, since the 1980s.

I know people love to say that Trump has been playing 4D chess and that others are playing checkers; however, that attempts to attribute an intelligence to one party and lack thereof to the other instead of considering that China has probably played out the US sovereign debt time bomb scenario, as well as the current dissolution of their reliance on the US as a trade partner, for the past 10-15 years. In the following recession to come, they have faith that their Chinese citizens will bear it better than their US counterparts. In fact, they probably hope and anticipate that a prolonged recession and decrease in the US living standard would actually incite an even more divided US population against their administration. And having learned from history, they will not repeat the same mistakes that Japan did by bombing pearl harbor, to create an enemy that they can unite against.

Thus, I believe while a hot war is coming, it's too soon and would serve no political strategy for China, and would be more like something that North Korea would do. The Great Depression was said to be between 1929 to 1932 at it's lowest peak, but WW2 didn't start until 1939. In today's information and technological age, the time between recession/depression may be shorter but there still needs to be that period of suffering and hardship; and if the US could be the one to blame for having started it on April 2nd 2025, even better.

[spottybrowncow]

That was a great analysis, and I sincerely hope you’re right. The more time that we have to correct our ship’s course, if that is still possible, the better.

[FullMoon]

That's some good stuff for sure!

[Navigator]

China is indeed playing the long game. They have certainly been successful in moving the world's base manufacturing capability to their country and have been successful in convincing most of the west to self-inflict serious economic damage by bankrolling things like climate change initiatives, open border policies and BLM in the US.

They do indeed have a long range plan. A large part of it has been to manipulate world trade through government sponsorship/subsidy of manufacturing and export (primarily to the US).

Unfortunately for them, their economy is in much worse shape than that of the US, Japan, or Western Europe. Their real estate and banking sectors have been teetering on the precipice for a couple of years now. The large scale loss of export trade, and the downstream effect on manufacturing jobs, could put their economy into a tailspin much faster than the sovereign debt crisis will hit the US.

There have already been serious political disturbances in China related to the real estate and banking sector problems. Mass manufacturing layoffs would compound this, and could easily lead to anti-CCP movements that the CCP cannot tolerate. In response, they will need to go to martial law to maintain control and quash dissent, and the way to do this is to start a war (which initially will also galvanize and improve popular support of the CCP).

Thus the tariffs would have the effect of disrupting the CCP timeline for conflict, causing them to start the shooting war years in advance of when they had planned to.

The reality is that we have been in conflict with the CCP for decades. They have played the US for chumps throughout that time, using our myopic focus on profits to strengthen themselves while weakening us.

Thus Trump's tariff attacks on China are a well needed change in our grand strategy. It will help to start the re-industrialization of the US in many key areas (such as in rare earth metal production). Much better to do it now, before the actual shooting starts.