Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
FullMoon
Posts: 889
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

Europe is fracturing, Axis powers are getting more bold and gaining adherents and the US looks weak with the political chaos. It looks like Navigator is calling it pretty accurately. I hope John's analysis is correct and Russia/Iran end up being considered our "allies". In the end it will be a game of survival and it's better to get the guns/nukes pointed away from our families and towards our ultimate rivals. For the sake of survival. Many people have suffered horribly in world wars and it would be a shame to lose family members to starvation, social chaos or radiation. Most are not prepared even a little bit, and haven't the ability to understand the danger.

Trevor
Posts: 1224
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

At this point, Trump is almost certain to be our next President and I don't think we'll be able to postpone things for much longer. Biden was already suffering from high inflation and a dismal approval rating, so re-election would have been a tough slog. After the debate, though... Democrats I know couldn't believe what they were seeing, having been convinced talks of his mental decline were a Fox News conspiracy. The media covered it up for years, and they wonder why the public has so little trust in them. If he'd had a mediocre debate, it wouldn't have moved the needle much, but it would have been enough for his base to claim he won and the media to proclaim talks of decline "deepfakes" "right-wing conspiracy", etc. There's no coming back from this.

However, he's refusing to stand down and the Democrats will have a hell of a time making him. Biden even has the threat of mutually assured destruction if you don't vote for him; never underestimate Grandpa's wrath when you try to take his car keys away. Personally, I expect he will indeed be the nominee, since what alternative do Democrats have? Kamala's just as unpopular, but if you remove her, that opens you up to allegations of racism and white supremacy. Had they not brought Trump on charges, I doubt he would be the nominee; Democrats have only themselves to blame in November.

Trevor
Posts: 1224
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

I've been watching the war in Ukraine and it remains a bloody stalemate. Russia takes a kilometer, here and there, at massive cost. They're losing around 100 tanks a month and much of their production is restoring old Soviet-era tanks, given a sizable number of what we see are T-62s, first built in the 1960s.

I'm certain Russia is spending more than 6.5% of GDP at this point. While complaints about the lack of equipment aren't as common as in 2022, they are still frequent. I've seen plenty of Russians who signed up for the bonuses declare that they weren't paid, that they were used up until they died, had to buy their equipment out of their own pocket, and on and on. I know better than to take it at face value, but it doesn't seem like their military has improved much. They have more men on the front, usually poor Russians who are desperate for a better life or those who can't avoid conscription.

Putin's biggest hope is that NATO and the United States will cease sending aid. After what we saw with Europe's elections, it's not unreasonable to believe it. I hear pundits who love to claim that we're far-right by world standards (Their definition of the "world" being Western Europe, Canada, Australia/New Zealand/Scandinavia) but Europe's public is often every bit as furious at the status quo. There's been a huge backlash with all the refugees, spending tens of billions on green energy, higher inflation and lower economic growth than the U.S. has. Marie Le Pen's party won the most votes, even if not the most seats. Poland, Finland, and a few others will continue to support Ukraine, but if I were Putin, I'd bet on many others refusing or tapering aid to the point where it's merely symbolic.

Much as I hate saying this, U.S. gripes about the rest of NATO being unwilling to pull their weight is not without some justification. Trump was especially loud about, but Bush, Obama, and even Clinton made the same point. We took the lead in the Ukraine conflict early on when nations like Germany did little more than bluster about the "arc of history." If they fall apart into bickering and we have to take the lead AGAIN, which I don't doubt, that's going to spike the already substantial resentment a lot of Americans hold. "We have to save your ass once again, because you can't do anything yourselves, and all the while, you lecture us about how civilized you are and we're a third world shithole." I expect Putin is counting on this, and more likely than not, he's right.

Anything can happen at this point. It's very possible to Russia to collapse in on itself the way they did in 1917, although I consider that scenario remote, at least in the near-term. For all their military failings, Russians can endure enormous suffering before they break. However, even they have a limit. The war's likely to drag on at least through 2024 without any major breakthroughs, the occasional territorial gain being at an enormous price. Right now, though, Russia reminds me of Austria-Hungary: a great power on paper, but plagued with internal divisions, corruption, and incompetence at all levels.

Trevor
Posts: 1224
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Trevor »

Considering the comparisons to Rome people like to make with the United States, there's something to it, albeit an oversimplification. What isn't said, though, is that if we're Rome, modern Europe bears a strong resemblance to Greece.

At one time, the Greek city-states were dynamic, powerful civilizations. Rome was a backwater in the middle of nowhere, some small city that few in the outside world gave a damn about. Over time, though, Rome grew into the most powerful civilization in the known world. Greece instead collapsed into infighting, most famously with the Peloponnesian Wars, conquered afterward by the Macedonians, until all that was left behind were their cultural legacy.

Rome had great regard for Greece, even though their own accomplishments were far greater and longer lasting, and had to repeatedly defend them against Macedonian invasion. However, the constant infighting among Greeks never stopped, leaving them incapable of defending themselves. They had their pride, but little more. Eventually, they became a tourist destination for wealthy Romans.

The reason I mention this is: at the dawn of the 20th Century, Britain, France, and Germany individually were at least as strong as the United States, probably stronger. Now the three of them together can't hope to rival us. They can toast themselves with universal health care, paid vacation, drone on about how "civilized" they are, but they're becoming irrelevant to the world at large. They have a cultural legacy, but not much else. Most of the strength of Western Civilizations comes from the United States, not them. Two World Wars destroyed them not only physically but spiritually.

Navigator
Posts: 932
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

As Rome started to loose its grip on the frontier, Barbarians got through and thoroughly ransacked and savaged Greece. According to Gibbons, the Greeks were not only utterly incapable of defending themselves, they were all at the theater when the Barbarians came to town!

So good analogy with US as Rome and Europe as Greece. Their ability to self destruct since 1918 is quite the record.

No doubt with pacifist / leftist now in charge everywhere, they will implode the great system that we set up for them (NATO).

Navigator
Posts: 932
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Axis of Evil

Post by Navigator »

For those who may have thought my idea of the Chinese sending troops to Europe was "Looney Tunes", here is an interesting story from today:

https://apnews.com/article/belarus-chin ... 3c4441f016
AP News:

Belarus and China join forces in a military drill near the Polish border

BY YURAS KARMANAU
Updated 10:54 AM MDT, July 9, 2024


TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — Belarus is hosting Chinese troops for a joint military drill near its border with NATO member Poland, officials said Tuesday, the first such exercise reflecting growing defense ties between the two countries.

The 11-day drill named Eagle Assault 2024 started on Monday at a shooting range in the Brest region close to Poland. It comes ahead of NATO’s summit in Washington that opens on Tuesday and after Belarus last week joined a regional security organization led by China and Russia.

Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled the country of 9.5 million with an iron hand for three decades, has relied on close ties with his main sponsor and ally Russia, and also sought to forge increasingly close relations with China.

Lukashenko has become a pariah in the West after unleashing a brutal crackdown on the opposition in response to massive protests in 2020, triggered by his disputed reelection that the opposition and the West denounced as rigged. The West has responded by imposing sweeping sanctions on Belarus.

He also allowed Russia to use his country as a staging ground for the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, Russia also moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

Lukashenko and his officials have repeatedly accused NATO of hostile intentions. “Our country takes all the necessary measures to avoid an escalation, but we will respond harshly to any attempt to violate our border,”
The Belarusian Defense Ministry said that as part of the joint drill, the Belarusian and Chinese troops will practice airborne assault, river crossing and residential area combat.

“The situation in the world is difficult, and so we are practicing new forms and methods of solving tactical tasks,” said Vadzim Dzenisenka, the chief of the Belarusian military’s special operations command.

A statement from the Chinese Defense Ministry said the forces will also practice hostage rescue and counter-terrorism operations. “The joint training aims to enhance the coordination capabilities of the participating troops and deepen practical cooperation between the two armies,” it said.
Belarus last week joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, established in 2001 by China and Russia to discuss security concerns in Central Asia and the wider region.
China cannot hold Army drills with Russia in Europe without causing NATO to go full tilt, so it has done the next best thing as it prepares for the future. China and Russia are fully aligned with Xi/China playing the part of the Kaiser's Germany and Russia playing the part of Austria-Hungary. It does not bode well for Europe, so let their self destructive behavior begin in earnest.

FullMoon
Posts: 889
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

China cannot hold Army drills with Russia in Europe without causing NATO to go full tilt, so it has done the next best thing as it prepares for the future. China and Russia are fully aligned with Xi/China playing the part of the Kaiser's Germany and Russia playing the part of Austria-Hungary. It does not bode well for Europe, so let their self destructive behavior begin in earnest
Would you say that this also doesn't bode well for Russia, or anyone else in the Euro Asian continent that doesn't want to be under the jack boot of the Communist totalitarian dictatorship?
Do you think this is to tie down the Euro's whilst they try their Pacific expansion efforts or will they focus more on the Heartland because they're not confident enough at this point in their chances at success with their Navy/missile forces? Or are they just pushing here and there because there's not much pushback and they know that they can get away with it?

Starscream

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Starscream »

The commies tryin' to take Trumpy out!

spottybrowncow
Posts: 351
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:06 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by spottybrowncow »

Thanks God he's OK.
And they just guaranteed his reelection.

spottybrowncow
Posts: 351
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2020 11:06 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by spottybrowncow »

And it's also certain that the perp gets his news from MSNBC and CNN.

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