Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:12 pm
Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:39 pm
Tom Mazanec wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:01 am
POLITICS
Russia says its forces now have full control of east Ukraine region
PUBLISHED SUN, JUL 3 20226:13 AM EDTUPDATED SUN, JUL 3 20221:09 PM EDT
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/03/russian ... rated.html
Wait, you mean Ukraine isn't winning? I must be a Russian troll, too, right?
Over all? No, Ukraine is not winning. However, Ukraine is making Russia pay a ruinous price for the for the underwhelming accomplishments it has achieved. While we can't know exact numbers (since Russia doesn't release much information and what it does is usually lies) Russia has suffered casualties of 30,000+, materiel losses in the tens of billions, and economic sanctions expected to reduce Russia's GDP by 10-15%. On top of that, Ukraine is receiving increasing amounts of Western equipment that outperforms anything Russia has while Russia is unable to even manufacture replacement equipment due to foreign sanctions.

So is Russia winning? Since it holds Ukrainian territory, you can say that. But the price already paid and coming up is much higher than anything they've achieved other than vanity.
They have a lot of NATO slush fund weaponry in their possession. The ruble has gained tremendously on the dollar. They have new partners that told the US to fukk off. They have Europe by the balls.

Try again, that's some weak stuff.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:42 pm
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:12 pm
Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:39 pm


Wait, you mean Ukraine isn't winning? I must be a Russian troll, too, right?
Over all? No, Ukraine is not winning. However, Ukraine is making Russia pay a ruinous price for the for the underwhelming accomplishments it has achieved. While we can't know exact numbers (since Russia doesn't release much information and what it does is usually lies) Russia has suffered casualties of 30,000+, materiel losses in the tens of billions, and economic sanctions expected to reduce Russia's GDP by 10-15%. On top of that, Ukraine is receiving increasing amounts of Western equipment that outperforms anything Russia has while Russia is unable to even manufacture replacement equipment due to foreign sanctions.

So is Russia winning? Since it holds Ukrainian territory, you can say that. But the price already paid and coming up is much higher than anything they've achieved other than vanity.
They have a lot of NATO slush fund weaponry in their possession. The ruble has gained tremendously on the dollar. They have new partners that told the US to fukk off. They have Europe by the balls.

Try again, that's some weak stuff.
Ukraine's military is being rebuilt to NATO standards. As we have seen, that vastly outperforms Russian standards. Sure, some of it is stuff that was being replaced as obsolescent, but it still outperforms Russian equipment. And you didn't address the fact that Russia can't build replacements for the stuff it has lost and is raiding the old stuff sitting in storage for decades. T-62s anyone? They were outdone by the M60s the US disposed of 30 years ago. All those wonder weapons Russia has been boasting of for the past twenty years? They are a handful of examples that Russia can't afford to build now.

The Russian ruble is being managed by the state and the current rate does not represent any inherent value. Russia does not have any new partners. It still has some of its old customers who are doing business at Russia's expense. The only thing Russia is exporting right now is oil and gas, both of which are selling at a very large discount. With Europe reducing gas purchases and Russia being unable to redirect those supplies elsewhere, that will be a definite loss. Russian oil is selling at around a $30 discount so while Russia is still making money, it's only because it's a bargain right now. Of course you will soon be running into the problem of shipping not being able to get insurance and third parties not being willing to do business with Russia due to sanctions which will make those shipments more difficult and expensive, requiring further discounts.

And you didn't address the 10-15% decline in GDP that everyone is expecting and the wide scale shortage of Western products, particularly high tech. Or the 50-100,000 high tech workers who have already left Russia for other countries.

So again, Ukraine is not currently winning the war, but it's hard to see that Russia is winning since it is already paying a huge price for Putin's vanity and it's only going to get worse.

I think it's you who needs to try again.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

FullMoon wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:52 pm
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/du ... 022-07-05/
It appears Navigator's prediction is coming true. Both sides feel a threat from each other and cannot understand the other's position. Talk of nuclear weapons is becoming commonplace.
Navigator, please tell us your current assessment and what we might expect coming up on this front.
Putin, like all egomaniacs, seems incapable of admitting that he has made a mistake. So the Russian Army slogs on.

Here is a link to a fantastic analysis about why the Russians are having such problems; namely the lack of infantry manpower, and how they are using manpower from the "breakaway" Ukrainian republics to attempt to fill the gaps. Needless to say, this is a poor stop gap measure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs

As this analysis points out, Russia can only fight the war its military prepared for if it goes to full mobilization. Part of that is full industrial mobilization, and your article shows them moving in that direction.

They are going to go there, it is just a matter of time. And not a long time.

The Russians will get much better once they get their masses of infantry to protect their equipment.

Meanwhile, NATO has its own lack of infantry problems.

I will try to write much more tomorrow. Don't have enough time tonight.

Iberia

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Iberia »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:32 pm
FullMoon wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:52 pm
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/du ... 022-07-05/
It appears Navigator's prediction is coming true. Both sides feel a threat from each other and cannot understand the other's position. Talk of nuclear weapons is becoming commonplace.
Navigator, please tell us your current assessment and what we might expect coming up on this front.
Putin, like all egomaniacs, seems incapable of admitting that he has made a mistake. So the Russian Army slogs on.

Here is a link to a fantastic analysis about why the Russians are having such problems; namely the lack of infantry manpower, and how they are using manpower from the "breakaway" Ukrainian republics to attempt to fill the gaps. Needless to say, this is a poor stop gap measure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs

As this analysis points out, Russia can only fight the war its military prepared for if it goes to full mobilization. Part of that is full industrial mobilization, and your article shows them moving in that direction.

They are going to go there, it is just a matter of time. And not a long time.

The Russians will get much better once they get their masses of infantry to protect their equipment.

Meanwhile, NATO has its own lack of infantry problems.

I will try to write much more tomorrow. Don't have enough time tonight.
You wrote at the beginning of the year that you expected Russia to destroy a hollowed out NATO and drive millions of refugees into Spain (Iberian peninsula). Do you still expect this to happen? The situation is in flux, but what do you think know?

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Some Russians won’t halt war protests, despite arrest fears
By The Associated Press
yesterday
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 8e8e211745

Putin’s Big Turning Point in the War Could Finally Be Here
Shannon Vavra
Wed, July 6, 2022, 4:57 AM·4 min read
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-big-turnin ... 05999.html

UPDATED THU, JUL 7 20223:39 AM EDT
Ukrainians try to hold back Russians at the Donetsk border; Moscow angry after Putin-Macron call details are revealed
Holly Ellyatt
Amanda Macias
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/russia- ... dates.html

A Key Russian Policy Influencer Confirmed The New Worldview Of His Country’s Elite
July 5, 2022
http://zububrothers.com/2022/07/05/a-ke ... rys-elite/

Issue: July 5, 2022
Russian journalist detained in psychiatric hospital over “fake news” posts on Telegram
https://reclaimthenet.org/russian-journ ... -telegram/

UPDATED THU, JUL 7 20227:51 AM EDT
Russia says the West risks the ‘wrath’ of God if it punishes Moscow over the war; Ukraine raises the flag on recaptured Snake Island
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/russia- ... dates.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Cool Breeze »

I don't understand supporting NATO and US efforts to mess with Russia for decades when it was unnecessary. Now poke and prod them into a war? Sounds like the same historical foolishness of elites sacrificing others so that they can have more power. Regardless of what "side" you want to take, I fail to see how any of this is good, moral or beneficial to the world population. Saying other countries are evil, whether it is true or not, helps no one - especially when your foreign policy makes no sense with regard to these terms. US foreign policy is a disaster, and we've treated real adversaries (like China) much better than other countries for a long, long time. Essentially we built them up so our disgusting leaders could profit. Totally schizophrenic stuff that you would think the oldies on the board would understand.

JDav
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:01 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JDav »

DaKardii wrote:
Tue Jun 28, 2022 12:30 am
Navigator wrote:
Mon Jun 27, 2022 12:18 am
My current opinion is my PERSONAL interpretation of what the numbers in Revelation and other Biblical/Theological sources mean to me. Many within my own religious circle would disagree with me, but to me, PERSONALLY, it makes the most sense.

I do not see things being dragged out much longer.
For further context, there are three major schools of Christian eschatological thought:

1. Premillennialism: These people believe that the Millennium will be an earthly golden age during which Christ himself will rule on Earth, and that the Final Judgment will occur only after the Millennium is over. Many of them also believe there will be a Rapture before the Great Tribulation. This school of thought is mainstream among Evangelical Protestants but is widely rejected by non-Evangelical Protestants, as well as Catholics and Orthodox.

2. Postmillennialism: These people also believe that the Millennium will be an earthly golden age which will be followed by the Final Judgment. But unlike premillennialists they reject the idea of Christ himself reigning on Earth, and instead maintain that Christ will return only at the conclusion of Armageddon. This school of thought was once mainstream among Protestants, but its following drastically declined during the early 20th century and is now followed only by fringe groups such as the Reconstructionist movement.

3. Amillennialism: These people interpret Revelation purely symbolically, and see the Millennium not as an earthly golden age in which the world will be totally Christianized, but as the present period where Christ rules the Earth through the Church. This school of thought is followed by most non-Evangelical Protestants, and is near-universally accepted among Catholics and Orthodox.
I disagree with your description of Amillenialism having near-universal acceptance among Catholics. The Church does not even view itself as ruling over the Earth. Jesus acknowledged to Pilate that Satan has dominion over the world. He will not rule until His Second Coming. His first was one of mercy but His second will be one of justice. If Jesus ruled right now we would not see the depravity and pure evil being witnessed on a daily basis.

Jesus also said that only His Father in Heaven knows the day and the hour. I would submit that it's dangerous, and probably sinful, for us to speculate on when that is. His instruction to us is for our souls to be ready, at every moment. The signs, as Navigator has described in his book, point to horrible times for us personally, but it would be a mistake to equate those with the End Times. Being physically prepared is good, but being spiritually prepared is more important.

JDav
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:01 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JDav »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:41 am
I don't understand supporting NATO and US efforts to mess with Russia for decades when it was unnecessary. Now poke and prod them into a war? Sounds like the same historical foolishness of elites sacrificing others so that they can have more power. Regardless of what "side" you want to take, I fail to see how any of this is good, moral or beneficial to the world population. Saying other countries are evil, whether it is true or not, helps no one - especially when your foreign policy makes no sense with regard to these terms. US foreign policy is a disaster, and we've treated real adversaries (like China) much better than other countries for a long, long time. Essentially we built them up so our disgusting leaders could profit. Totally schizophrenic stuff that you would think the oldies on the board would understand.
As I get older I find that most things make sense when you take into account that 1) Satan has dominion over this world, and though he won't win in the end he can sure eff things up (and, ironically, his own actions eventually lead to his failures); and 2) most political decisions are made for the accumulation of money, power, or both. I almost never agree with those decisions, but at least I understand them. Qui bono.

As examples, Satan's greed in wanting more and more infant sacrifices, up to and even after birth, eventually turned most of the nation against abortion. Had the left maintained the safe, legal, and rare mantra, abortion might have one day been enshrined in law.

And, we had a president impeached over a phone call to one of the most corrupt leaders in the world. Now, a new president has given that same corrupt leader $60 billion in aid, and now he's a hero. Now, why would that be?

The fact of the matter is that most of the people in power, with few exceptions, don't give a rat's rear end about you and I. Why should I care about them?

JDav
Posts: 102
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:01 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by JDav »

And, John, we're praying for your recovery, if that is God's will.

Xeraphim1

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Xeraphim1 »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:32 pm
FullMoon wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:52 pm
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/du ... 022-07-05/
It appears Navigator's prediction is coming true. Both sides feel a threat from each other and cannot understand the other's position. Talk of nuclear weapons is becoming commonplace.
Navigator, please tell us your current assessment and what we might expect coming up on this front.
Putin, like all egomaniacs, seems incapable of admitting that he has made a mistake. So the Russian Army slogs on.

Here is a link to a fantastic analysis about why the Russians are having such problems; namely the lack of infantry manpower, and how they are using manpower from the "breakaway" Ukrainian republics to attempt to fill the gaps. Needless to say, this is a poor stop gap measure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKewF8_SiIs

As this analysis points out, Russia can only fight the war its military prepared for if it goes to full mobilization. Part of that is full industrial mobilization, and your article shows them moving in that direction.

They are going to go there, it is just a matter of time. And not a long time.

The Russians will get much better once they get their masses of infantry to protect their equipment.

Meanwhile, NATO has its own lack of infantry problems.

I will try to write much more tomorrow. Don't have enough time tonight.
It depends on what you mean by "much better". Russia has already given up on anything bold and has resorted to its WWII tactics of pound everything with artillery until it's rubble, advance a hundred meters and repeat. The only way Russia can get appreciably more infantry is by conscripting more people which will be quite unpopular and will still have the problem of poor training, horrible leadership and an inability to adequately supply them. Russia will also not be able to add appreciably more modern equipment because it's cut off from the components it needs while even China is not willing to sell to them.

NATO doesn't have the need for hordes of poorly trained conscripts because it has different strategies. In particular, it has modern air forces and uses them. If Russia can't overcome Ukraine with the relatively paltry aid it's received, how can it conquer nations with modern militaries? The biggest "surprise" of Russia new war has been how poor the Russian military actually is. Barring the use of nuclear weapons, Russia has been shown to be a bully only capable of fighting weaker nations and not very well at that.

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