Generational Dynamics World View News

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:49 pm
** 21-Jun-2022 World View: World War II timeline in Asia

Navigator wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:54 pm
> We know in general terms what will happen next, but the timing is
> impossible to pin down.

> It is also happening in "slow motion", that is things don't change
> much in real day-day time. For example, we know that the
> progression in Europe pre-WW2 was:

> Hitler becomes Chancellor
> Hitler become Dictator
> Germany re-occupies Rhineland
> Germany annexes Austria
> Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia
> Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia
> Germany declares full mobilization
> Germany invades Poland.

> But its not like these things happened on Sunday, the next on
> Monday, the next on Tuesday and so on. There were weeks and
> months in between.
DaKardii wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:34 pm
> Here's further context as to when these events occurred, and how
> far apart they were.

> Hitler becomes Chancellor (January 1933)
> Hitler become Dictator (August 1934; +1 year, 7 months)
> Germany re-occupies Rhineland (March 1936; +1 year, 7 months)
> Germany annexes Austria (March 1938; +2 years)
> Germany declares full mobilization (September 1938; +6 months)
> Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia (September 1938; +a few weeks)
> Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia (March 1939; +6 months)
> Germany invades Poland (September 1939; +6 months)
The above is the European timeline for World War II, but there's
also an Asian timeline that runs in parallel. This is significant
because today once again there are events in Europe and Asia
running in parallel.

Here are some of the events in the Asian timeline:
  • 1931 Japan conquers and annexes Manchuria
  • 1933 China's Nationalist president Chiang Kai-shek recognizes
    Japan's annexation of Manchuria
  • 1933 Japan withdraws from League of Nations
  • 1936 Japan sets up Unit 731, a chemical and biological warfare lab
    Harbin, Manchuria, and conducts experiments on some 3,000 human
    beings, mostly abducted Chinese, used as guinea pigs.
  • 1937 Marco Polo Bridge incident, July 7-9, 1937
  • 1937 Japan invades China, late July 1937
  • 1937 Japan attacks Nanking, December 10, 1937
  • 1937 Japanese warplanes bomb and sink the USS Panay on the
    Yangtze river, December 12, 1937. Wishing to remain neutral, the US
    accepts Japan's apologies and reparations.
  • 1937 Battle of Nanking / Rape of Nanking, December 13, 1937
  • 1940 US begins formal aid to China in support of its war with
    Japan
  • 1940 US begins embargo, cuts off flow of oil, steel, iron and
    other commodities to Japan
  • 1940 Japan signs the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy,
    ending America's formal neutrality and making China an ally of the
    West, September 27, 1940
  • 1941 Japanese warplanes bomb Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941
  • 1941 America declares war on Japan. Germany declares war on the
    United States.
Most of these events in Asia have been forgotten, even by people in Asia. This is why John says that China wants revenge against Japan.

Another guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Another guest »

Guest wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:25 am
John wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:49 pm
** 21-Jun-2022 World View: World War II timeline in Asia

Navigator wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:54 pm
> We know in general terms what will happen next, but the timing is
> impossible to pin down.

> It is also happening in "slow motion", that is things don't change
> much in real day-day time. For example, we know that the
> progression in Europe pre-WW2 was:

> Hitler becomes Chancellor
> Hitler become Dictator
> Germany re-occupies Rhineland
> Germany annexes Austria
> Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia
> Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia
> Germany declares full mobilization
> Germany invades Poland.

> But its not like these things happened on Sunday, the next on
> Monday, the next on Tuesday and so on. There were weeks and
> months in between.
DaKardii wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:34 pm
> Here's further context as to when these events occurred, and how
> far apart they were.

> Hitler becomes Chancellor (January 1933)
> Hitler become Dictator (August 1934; +1 year, 7 months)
> Germany re-occupies Rhineland (March 1936; +1 year, 7 months)
> Germany annexes Austria (March 1938; +2 years)
> Germany declares full mobilization (September 1938; +6 months)
> Germany annexes Sudetenland of Czechoslovakia (September 1938; +a few weeks)
> Germany takes over rest of Czechoslovakia (March 1939; +6 months)
> Germany invades Poland (September 1939; +6 months)
The above is the European timeline for World War II, but there's
also an Asian timeline that runs in parallel. This is significant
because today once again there are events in Europe and Asia
running in parallel.

Here are some of the events in the Asian timeline:
  • 1931 Japan conquers and annexes Manchuria
  • 1933 China's Nationalist president Chiang Kai-shek recognizes
    Japan's annexation of Manchuria
  • 1933 Japan withdraws from League of Nations
  • 1936 Japan sets up Unit 731, a chemical and biological warfare lab
    Harbin, Manchuria, and conducts experiments on some 3,000 human
    beings, mostly abducted Chinese, used as guinea pigs.
  • 1937 Marco Polo Bridge incident, July 7-9, 1937
  • 1937 Japan invades China, late July 1937
  • 1937 Japan attacks Nanking, December 10, 1937
  • 1937 Japanese warplanes bomb and sink the USS Panay on the
    Yangtze river, December 12, 1937. Wishing to remain neutral, the US
    accepts Japan's apologies and reparations.
  • 1937 Battle of Nanking / Rape of Nanking, December 13, 1937
  • 1940 US begins formal aid to China in support of its war with
    Japan
  • 1940 US begins embargo, cuts off flow of oil, steel, iron and
    other commodities to Japan
  • 1940 Japan signs the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy,
    ending America's formal neutrality and making China an ally of the
    West, September 27, 1940
  • 1941 Japanese warplanes bomb Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941
  • 1941 America declares war on Japan. Germany declares war on the
    United States.
Most of these events in Asia have been forgotten, even by people in Asia. This is why John says that China wants revenge against Japan.
Ah, no. Asians haven't forgotten or forgiven any of these events.

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

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Navigator
Posts: 662
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Trevor wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:58 pm
As for a conflict between China and the U.S., neither of us have the manpower or equipment to fight a long conflict. For an historical example, during the First World War, both sides burned through their artillery stockpile in a couple months, dramatically underestimating the number of men and equipment they'd need. I expect China's strong enough to push us away from their coastline, but they don't have a chance of contesting our dominance in the ocean. It'd be interesting to hear Navigator's take on this.
You have a good understanding of what led to stalemate on the Western Front in Sep/Oct 1914, exhaustion of ammunition supplies for both sides.

I am not sure how far out the Chinese can effectively project power into the Pacific. I fear that surface ships are a LOT more vulnerable to anti-ship missiles than we currently believe. I also fear that Aircraft Carriers have been superseded by nuclear attack submarines as the dominant naval vessel.

The current Chinese moves to secure bases in Micronesia is VERY worrisome. All they would need to do is put a couple of battalions of "construction workers" with "who knows what" in shipping containers on a number of strategic islands, and suddenly we would have problems we haven't seen since 1943.

If the Chinese can secure Taiwan, they could potentially use the same tactics to move from there against the weakly defended Philippines.

Any power projection from Mainland China out to sea would put Japan in a very difficult position in terms of shipping lanes, with potentially only the Hawaii - Midway/Wake - Tokyo being a secure supply route.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:32 pm
Trevor wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:58 pm
As for a conflict between China and the U.S., neither of us have the manpower or equipment to fight a long conflict. For an historical example, during the First World War, both sides burned through their artillery stockpile in a couple months, dramatically underestimating the number of men and equipment they'd need. I expect China's strong enough to push us away from their coastline, but they don't have a chance of contesting our dominance in the ocean. It'd be interesting to hear Navigator's take on this.
You have a good understanding of what led to stalemate on the Western Front in Sep/Oct 1914, exhaustion of ammunition supplies for both sides.

I am not sure how far out the Chinese can effectively project power into the Pacific. I fear that surface ships are a LOT more vulnerable to anti-ship missiles than we currently believe. I also fear that Aircraft Carriers have been superseded by nuclear attack submarines as the dominant naval vessel.

The current Chinese moves to secure bases in Micronesia is VERY worrisome. All they would need to do is put a couple of battalions of "construction workers" with "who knows what" in shipping containers on a number of strategic islands, and suddenly we would have problems we haven't seen since 1943.

If the Chinese can secure Taiwan, they could potentially use the same tactics to move from there against the weakly defended Philippines.

Any power projection from Mainland China out to sea would put Japan in a very difficult position in terms of shipping lanes, with potentially only the Hawaii - Midway/Wake - Tokyo being a secure supply route.
Would Biden just sit by and do nothing?

thomasglee
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:07 pm
Location: Texas

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thomasglee »

Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:10 am
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:32 pm
Trevor wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:58 pm
As for a conflict between China and the U.S., neither of us have the manpower or equipment to fight a long conflict. For an historical example, during the First World War, both sides burned through their artillery stockpile in a couple months, dramatically underestimating the number of men and equipment they'd need. I expect China's strong enough to push us away from their coastline, but they don't have a chance of contesting our dominance in the ocean. It'd be interesting to hear Navigator's take on this.
You have a good understanding of what led to stalemate on the Western Front in Sep/Oct 1914, exhaustion of ammunition supplies for both sides.

I am not sure how far out the Chinese can effectively project power into the Pacific. I fear that surface ships are a LOT more vulnerable to anti-ship missiles than we currently believe. I also fear that Aircraft Carriers have been superseded by nuclear attack submarines as the dominant naval vessel.

The current Chinese moves to secure bases in Micronesia is VERY worrisome. All they would need to do is put a couple of battalions of "construction workers" with "who knows what" in shipping containers on a number of strategic islands, and suddenly we would have problems we haven't seen since 1943.

If the Chinese can secure Taiwan, they could potentially use the same tactics to move from there against the weakly defended Philippines.

Any power projection from Mainland China out to sea would put Japan in a very difficult position in terms of shipping lanes, with potentially only the Hawaii - Midway/Wake - Tokyo being a secure supply route.
Would Biden just sit by and do nothing?
The question is, what could Biden (the USA) do? From what I hear, the 7th fleet is no longer a viable threat to the Chinese in the Pacific.
Psalm 34:4 - “I sought the Lord, and he answered me and delivered me from all my fears.”

User avatar
Tom Mazanec
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Tom Mazanec »

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SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Navigator
Posts: 662
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Navigator »

Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:10 am
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:32 pm
Trevor wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:58 pm
As for a conflict between China and the U.S., neither of us have the manpower or equipment to fight a long conflict. For an historical example, during the First World War, both sides burned through their artillery stockpile in a couple months, dramatically underestimating the number of men and equipment they'd need. I expect China's strong enough to push us away from their coastline, but they don't have a chance of contesting our dominance in the ocean. It'd be interesting to hear Navigator's take on this.
You have a good understanding of what led to stalemate on the Western Front in Sep/Oct 1914, exhaustion of ammunition supplies for both sides.

I am not sure how far out the Chinese can effectively project power into the Pacific. I fear that surface ships are a LOT more vulnerable to anti-ship missiles than we currently believe. I also fear that Aircraft Carriers have been superseded by nuclear attack submarines as the dominant naval vessel.

The current Chinese moves to secure bases in Micronesia is VERY worrisome. All they would need to do is put a couple of battalions of "construction workers" with "who knows what" in shipping containers on a number of strategic islands, and suddenly we would have problems we haven't seen since 1943.

If the Chinese can secure Taiwan, they could potentially use the same tactics to move from there against the weakly defended Philippines.

Any power projection from Mainland China out to sea would put Japan in a very difficult position in terms of shipping lanes, with potentially only the Hawaii - Midway/Wake - Tokyo being a secure supply route.
Would Biden just sit by and do nothing?
It is a distinct possibility, regardless of what he says now. The US has not treaty to protect Taiwan, so Biden can wiggle out of any military response should he wish to do so.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Navigator wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 9:52 pm
Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:10 am
Navigator wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:32 pm


You have a good understanding of what led to stalemate on the Western Front in Sep/Oct 1914, exhaustion of ammunition supplies for both sides.

I am not sure how far out the Chinese can effectively project power into the Pacific. I fear that surface ships are a LOT more vulnerable to anti-ship missiles than we currently believe. I also fear that Aircraft Carriers have been superseded by nuclear attack submarines as the dominant naval vessel.

The current Chinese moves to secure bases in Micronesia is VERY worrisome. All they would need to do is put a couple of battalions of "construction workers" with "who knows what" in shipping containers on a number of strategic islands, and suddenly we would have problems we haven't seen since 1943.

If the Chinese can secure Taiwan, they could potentially use the same tactics to move from there against the weakly defended Philippines.

Any power projection from Mainland China out to sea would put Japan in a very difficult position in terms of shipping lanes, with potentially only the Hawaii - Midway/Wake - Tokyo being a secure supply route.
Would Biden just sit by and do nothing?
It is a distinct possibility, regardless of what he says now. The US has not treaty to protect Taiwan, so Biden can wiggle out of any military response should he wish to do so.
So China takes over the semiconductor industry and America dies on the vine?

Hey, everyone! Aren't you glad you voted for Biden now?!

thomasglee
Posts: 617
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:07 pm
Location: Texas

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by thomasglee »

Psalm 34:4 - “I sought the Lord, and he answered me and delivered me from all my fears.”

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