DaKardii wrote: ↑Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:27 pm
I also predict a similar situation will befall the Middle East -- where two powers ally against the third -- once push comes to shove.
In that region, the three major powers are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran.
The divide could go one of two ways:
1) Turkey and Iran against Saudi Arabia, with the divide being over Saudi Arabia's historic regional hegemony as well as its support for Wahhabist movements.
2) Saudi Arabia and Iran against Turkey, with the divide being over the Erdogan regime's neo-Ottoman imperial ambitions as well as its support for the Muslim Brotherhood.
3) Saudi Arabia and Turkey against Iran, with the divide being over Sunni-Shia fault lines.
In my opinion, the ultimate factor determining which of these three scenarios comes to pass will be China. China is in desperate need of allies outside its backyard, and by far its best bets for such allies are among the Sunni countries (due to Pakistan being China's closest ally). So naturally, in the leadup to the war China will be actively courting both Saudi Arabia and Turkey as potential allies. Of course, there's one problem, and a serious one at that. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are currently enemies due to their ongoing competition for hegemony over the Sunni world. And if China is unable to broker some sort of peace between them, it will have to pick a side. Should it pick a side, its decision likely will be determined by the amount of influence Saudi Arabia and Turkey respectively have over Pakistan.
If China is able to broker some sort of peace between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, then Scenario #3 will happen. Saudi Arabia and Turkey will ally with China and Iran will ally with the USA.
But if China is
unable to broker said peace, then either Scenario #1 or Scenario #2 will happen. Whichever side China picks in the Saudi-Turkish cold war, the other one will (at least initially) ally with the USA. Meanwhile, Iran will be a wild card; who it allies with will be determined by the outcome of a generational conflict, with the older generations supporting China and the younger generations supporting the USA. A similar generational conflict will also play out within whichever Sunni power allies with the USA, with the older generations supporting the USA and the younger generations supporting China.
Here's a bonus prediction.
Since I brought up the Middle East, many of you who read my previous post are probably curious about which side I believe Israel will predict.
Israel's central concerns are Hamas and Hezbollah. The Erdogan regime is closely allied with the Muslim Brotherhood, which is Hamas' parent organization. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is basically a puppet of the Ayatollahs in Iran.
If China is able to broker some sort of peace between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, then Israel will be a wild card. A Chinese-sponsored peace deal would result in Turkey and Iran being on opposing sides, which in turn would result in Hamas and Hezbollah being on opposing sides. At that point, Israel would have to do a threat assessment of both groups before making a decision on which side to back. If Israel deems Hamas to be the greater threat, then it will ally with the USA, because Iran would be allied with the US. But if Israel deems Hezbollah to be the greater threat, then it will ally with China, because Turkey would be allied with China.
And if China is
unable to broker some sort of peace between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, then Israel
still would be a wild card, as two possible sub-scenarios could come out of that, and multiple possible sub-sub-scenarios out of those two sub-scenarios:
1) China backs Saudi Arabia. Turkey allies with the USA. Iran is a wild card due to its generational conflict (it sides with China if the Ayatollahs prevail, and it sides with the USA if the Ayatollahs fall), and Turkey endures its own generational conflict that could potentially result in it switching sides mid-war. If the Ayatollahs prevail in Iran and the Erdogan regime prevails in Turkey, then Israel will base its decision regarding who to ally with on whether Hamas or Hezbollah is the greater threat, as stated above. If the Ayatollahs fall but the Erdogan regime prevails, Israel will side with China. If the Ayatollahs prevail but the Erdogan regime falls, Israel will side with the USA. If both the Ayatollahs
and the Erdogan regime fall, then Israel will side with the USA (because the USA is a traditional Israeli ally).
2) China backs Turkey. Saudi Arabia allies with the USA. Iran is a wild card due to its generational conflict (it sides with China if the Ayatollahs prevail, and it sides with the USA if the Ayatollahs fall). Saudi Arabia also endures its own generational conflict that could potentially result in it switching sides mid-war. Either way, Israel sides with the USA; because if the Ayatollahs prevail, both Hamas and Hezbollah will be allied with China; while if the Ayatollahs fall, then Hezbollah will collapse, and Hamas, who is allied with China, will be the only remaining major anti-Israel terrorist group.
TLDR version of the above: Most possible scenarios result in Israel siding with the USA. Israel sides with China only if either (1) The Ayatollahs remain in power, the Ayatollahs are allied with the USA, and Israel deems Hezbollah to be a greater threat than Hamas; (2) The Erdogan regime remains in power, the Erdogan regime is allied with the USA, and Israel deems Hamas to be a greater threat than Hezbollah; or (3) the Ayatollahs fall but the Erdogan regime remains in power, and the Erdogan regime is allied with the USA.