Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

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Japan's defense minister draws red line in island dispute with China
In an exclusive interview with CNN, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said the Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in China, are unquestionably Japanese territory and would be defended as such, with Tokyo matching any Chinese threat to the islands ship for ship, and beyond if necessary.
The Japanese seem aren't afraid of China. Maybe they have figured out how hollow the officer corps the CCP army really is?

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

Guest wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:08 pm
Japan's defense minister draws red line in island dispute with China
In an exclusive interview with CNN, Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said the Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyu Islands in China, are unquestionably Japanese territory and would be defended as such, with Tokyo matching any Chinese threat to the islands ship for ship, and beyond if necessary.
The Japanese seem aren't afraid of China. Maybe they have figured out how hollow the officer corps the CCP army really is?
Look who is the Japanese Defense Minister: Nobuo Kishi

Nobuo Kishi is also part of Nippon Kaigi (日本会議). He is a samurai. He is not afraid to die.

The Kishi are considered the Hitlers of Asia by many. The Japanese are ready for conflict.

John
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John »

** 18-Sep-2021 World View: Russia and France
Nathan Redshield wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:36 pm
> France is never going to align with Russia or China. That's not
> even a silly question. And NATO survived just fine when France
> removed itself from the NATO command structure.

> France was aligned with Russia ca. 1890-1917. Caused much evil in
> the world, especially when Britain stopped trying to ride herd on
> two rival blocs in Europe and started to back France without
> checking what France's ally Russia was up to. That is how Britain
> wound up losing a million men in WW I over Serbian machinations in
> the Balkans. Belgium had nothing to do with it--if France had
> occupied Belgium (which they would have been able to do in 1917 IF
> the war had started then (long story) Britain would NOT have done
> a thing! Historically France has been a Center-Left sort of
> country, like the US 1933-1980 so being Friendly to the
> Soviets/Russia is entirely plausible, and the one way the Germans
> can avoid being called neo-Nazi is by adopting pro-Soviet/Russian
> policies, this last is the consequence of popular World War II
> Propaganda whose consequences Britain and America must pay heed
> to. It's a perverse trap of Popular Democracy to be enslaves to
> past propaganda. But I don't expect France to go in a Russian
> orbit now--Putin is no longer a young man and he has no sons so
> little possibility we'll see a "Boris [Vladimir] Putinov" staged.
> France will sulk--they usually do--and then come up with something
> maybe. But I do wonder WHY the Aussies decided in 2016 on such
> inferior submarines?
France and Russia were also aligned during WW II.

Whether France aligns with Russia depends on the people, not the
politicians. And as far as I can tell, the French and Russian people
love each other. In particular, Russians love to send their children
to France to be educated.

DaKardii
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

John wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 5:13 pm
That's right. The French officials have been going around describing
this as the English-speaking countries (US, UK and Australia) pivoting
to Asia, leaving France out. They're saying that this betrayal is
extremely serious, and goes far beyond the cancellation of the $90
billion contract.

We keep trying to guess how Europe will split up during a new world
war. Maybe we'll see a new Battle of Waterloo.
The three major powers of Western Europe are Germany, France, and the UK.

My opinion is that once NATO falls apart, the subsequent re-alignment will pit two powers against the third. And it could go one of three ways:

1) France and the UK against Germany, with the divide being over whether Germany should re-assert itself in the aftermath of its re-unification.

2) Germany and the UK against France, with the divide being over whether France should be the sole arbiter of continental affairs (a world that many post-WWII French leaders have dreamt about).

3) Germany and France against the UK, with the divide being over whether the UK, an island nation, should have any influence over continental affairs whatsoever.

Based on what I'm seeing right now, the most likely scenarios are the second and third ones, which would inevitably result in the UK siding with the USA, France siding with China, and Germany being a wild card.

DaKardii
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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

DaKardii wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:43 pm
The three major powers of Western Europe are Germany, France, and the UK.

My opinion is that once NATO falls apart, the subsequent re-alignment will pit two powers against the third. And it could go one of three ways:

1) France and the UK against Germany, with the divide being over whether Germany should re-assert itself in the aftermath of its re-unification.

2) Germany and the UK against France, with the divide being over whether France should be the sole arbiter of continental affairs (a world that many post-WWII French leaders have dreamt about).

3) Germany and France against the UK, with the divide being over whether the UK, an island nation, should have any influence over continental affairs whatsoever.

Based on what I'm seeing right now, the most likely scenarios are the second and third ones, which inevitably would result in the UK siding with the USA, France siding with China, and Germany being a wild card.
I also predict a similar situation will befall the Middle East -- where two powers ally against the third -- once push comes to shove.

In that region, the three major powers are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran.

The divide could go one of two ways:

1) Turkey and Iran against Saudi Arabia, with the divide being over Saudi Arabia's historic regional hegemony as well as its support for Wahhabist movements.

2) Saudi Arabia and Iran against Turkey, with the divide being over the Erdogan regime's neo-Ottoman imperial ambitions as well as its support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

3) Saudi Arabia and Turkey against Iran, with the divide being over Sunni-Shia fault lines.

In my opinion, the ultimate factor determining which of these three scenarios comes to pass will be China. China is in desperate need of allies outside its backyard, and by far its best bets for such allies are among the Sunni countries (due to Pakistan being China's closest ally). So naturally, in the leadup to the war China will be actively courting both Saudi Arabia and Turkey as potential allies. Of course, there's one problem, and a serious one at that. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are currently enemies due to their ongoing competition for hegemony over the Sunni world. And if China is unable to broker some sort of peace between them, it will have to pick a side. Should it pick a side, its decision likely will be determined by the amount of influence Saudi Arabia and Turkey respectively have over Pakistan.

If China is able to broker some sort of peace between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, then Scenario #3 will happen. Saudi Arabia and Turkey will ally with China and Iran will ally with the USA.

But if China is unable to broker said peace, then either Scenario #1 or Scenario #2 will happen. Whichever side China picks in the Saudi-Turkish cold war, the other one will (at least initially) ally with the USA. Meanwhile, Iran will be a wild card; who it allies with will be determined by the outcome of a generational conflict, with the older generations supporting China and the younger generations supporting the USA. A similar generational conflict will also play out within whichever Sunni power allies with the USA, with the older generations supporting the USA and the younger generations supporting China.

DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

DaKardii wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 11:27 pm
I also predict a similar situation will befall the Middle East -- where two powers ally against the third -- once push comes to shove.

In that region, the three major powers are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran.

The divide could go one of two ways:

1) Turkey and Iran against Saudi Arabia, with the divide being over Saudi Arabia's historic regional hegemony as well as its support for Wahhabist movements.

2) Saudi Arabia and Iran against Turkey, with the divide being over the Erdogan regime's neo-Ottoman imperial ambitions as well as its support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

3) Saudi Arabia and Turkey against Iran, with the divide being over Sunni-Shia fault lines.

In my opinion, the ultimate factor determining which of these three scenarios comes to pass will be China. China is in desperate need of allies outside its backyard, and by far its best bets for such allies are among the Sunni countries (due to Pakistan being China's closest ally). So naturally, in the leadup to the war China will be actively courting both Saudi Arabia and Turkey as potential allies. Of course, there's one problem, and a serious one at that. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are currently enemies due to their ongoing competition for hegemony over the Sunni world. And if China is unable to broker some sort of peace between them, it will have to pick a side. Should it pick a side, its decision likely will be determined by the amount of influence Saudi Arabia and Turkey respectively have over Pakistan.

If China is able to broker some sort of peace between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, then Scenario #3 will happen. Saudi Arabia and Turkey will ally with China and Iran will ally with the USA.

But if China is unable to broker said peace, then either Scenario #1 or Scenario #2 will happen. Whichever side China picks in the Saudi-Turkish cold war, the other one will (at least initially) ally with the USA. Meanwhile, Iran will be a wild card; who it allies with will be determined by the outcome of a generational conflict, with the older generations supporting China and the younger generations supporting the USA. A similar generational conflict will also play out within whichever Sunni power allies with the USA, with the older generations supporting the USA and the younger generations supporting China.
Here's a bonus prediction.

Since I brought up the Middle East, many of you who read my previous post are probably curious about which side I believe Israel will predict.

Israel's central concerns are Hamas and Hezbollah. The Erdogan regime is closely allied with the Muslim Brotherhood, which is Hamas' parent organization. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is basically a puppet of the Ayatollahs in Iran.

If China is able to broker some sort of peace between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, then Israel will be a wild card. A Chinese-sponsored peace deal would result in Turkey and Iran being on opposing sides, which in turn would result in Hamas and Hezbollah being on opposing sides. At that point, Israel would have to do a threat assessment of both groups before making a decision on which side to back. If Israel deems Hamas to be the greater threat, then it will ally with the USA, because Iran would be allied with the US. But if Israel deems Hezbollah to be the greater threat, then it will ally with China, because Turkey would be allied with China.

And if China is unable to broker some sort of peace between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, then Israel still would be a wild card, as two possible sub-scenarios could come out of that, and multiple possible sub-sub-scenarios out of those two sub-scenarios:

1) China backs Saudi Arabia. Turkey allies with the USA. Iran is a wild card due to its generational conflict (it sides with China if the Ayatollahs prevail, and it sides with the USA if the Ayatollahs fall), and Turkey endures its own generational conflict that could potentially result in it switching sides mid-war. If the Ayatollahs prevail in Iran and the Erdogan regime prevails in Turkey, then Israel will base its decision regarding who to ally with on whether Hamas or Hezbollah is the greater threat, as stated above. If the Ayatollahs fall but the Erdogan regime prevails, Israel will side with China. If the Ayatollahs prevail but the Erdogan regime falls, Israel will side with the USA. If both the Ayatollahs and the Erdogan regime fall, then Israel will side with the USA (because the USA is a traditional Israeli ally).

2) China backs Turkey. Saudi Arabia allies with the USA. Iran is a wild card due to its generational conflict (it sides with China if the Ayatollahs prevail, and it sides with the USA if the Ayatollahs fall). Saudi Arabia also endures its own generational conflict that could potentially result in it switching sides mid-war. Either way, Israel sides with the USA; because if the Ayatollahs prevail, both Hamas and Hezbollah will be allied with China; while if the Ayatollahs fall, then Hezbollah will collapse, and Hamas, who is allied with China, will be the only remaining major anti-Israel terrorist group.

TLDR version of the above: Most possible scenarios result in Israel siding with the USA. Israel sides with China only if either (1) The Ayatollahs remain in power, the Ayatollahs are allied with the USA, and Israel deems Hezbollah to be a greater threat than Hamas; (2) The Erdogan regime remains in power, the Erdogan regime is allied with the USA, and Israel deems Hamas to be a greater threat than Hezbollah; or (3) the Ayatollahs fall but the Erdogan regime remains in power, and the Erdogan regime is allied with the USA.

Guest

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest »

John wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:23 pm
** 18-Sep-2021 World View: Russia and France
Nathan Redshield wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:36 pm
> France is never going to align with Russia or China. That's not
> even a silly question. And NATO survived just fine when France
> removed itself from the NATO command structure.

> France was aligned with Russia ca. 1890-1917. Caused much evil in
> the world, especially when Britain stopped trying to ride herd on
> two rival blocs in Europe and started to back France without
> checking what France's ally Russia was up to. That is how Britain
> wound up losing a million men in WW I over Serbian machinations in
> the Balkans. Belgium had nothing to do with it--if France had
> occupied Belgium (which they would have been able to do in 1917 IF
> the war had started then (long story) Britain would NOT have done
> a thing! Historically France has been a Center-Left sort of
> country, like the US 1933-1980 so being Friendly to the
> Soviets/Russia is entirely plausible, and the one way the Germans
> can avoid being called neo-Nazi is by adopting pro-Soviet/Russian
> policies, this last is the consequence of popular World War II
> Propaganda whose consequences Britain and America must pay heed
> to. It's a perverse trap of Popular Democracy to be enslaves to
> past propaganda. But I don't expect France to go in a Russian
> orbit now--Putin is no longer a young man and he has no sons so
> little possibility we'll see a "Boris [Vladimir] Putinov" staged.
> France will sulk--they usually do--and then come up with something
> maybe. But I do wonder WHY the Aussies decided in 2016 on such
> inferior submarines?
France and Russia were also aligned during WW II.

Whether France aligns with Russia depends on the people, not the
politicians. And as far as I can tell, the French and Russian people
love each other. In particular, Russians love to send their children
to France to be educated.
France is easily Europe's next Bosnia. The average Frenchman is well aware of it.

FullMoon
Posts: 772
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FullMoon »

https://news.yahoo.com/study-rewrites-u ... 58811.html
John, have you seen this. Japanese have roughly 71% Han ancestry. There goes the 'racial superiority' claim or partially?

DaKardii
Posts: 943
Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

France is now ratcheting up its anti-American rhetoric to the same level as the rhetoric coming from China and Russia. I see a nasty breakup ahead.

God forbid this leads to the CIA and the neocons trying to destabilize Western Europe...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/subm ... -50w7jrzxq

DaKardii
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Joined: Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:17 am

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by DaKardii »

You heard it here first.

At this very moment, the CIA and the neocons are in the very early stages of planning regime change in France.

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