10-Nov-16 World View -- Donald Trump: The honeymoon calm before the storm Is this the Apocalypse?

[anon]

Now, a couple of predictions about the Trump presidency.

Partly for the shock/reversal value, he'll pardon both Clintons as pretty much his first official actions. This accomplishes several things - first it makes anyone trying to defend them or reject the pardon as nonsense look small. It makes him appear the bigger man, magnanimous in victory. It takes all the wind out of the Republican OLD GUARD sails, they've focussed on the Clintons for so long they'll be lost for a time and won't know what to do, while he seizes the reins. It prevents Clinton from demanding a trial and facing her accusers - which nobody in the GOP actually wants to happen, given her "accusers" are all in Congress and would have to face cross examination. And it's great showmanship, and he does love a show. That's all win/win/win and no downside.

He can order TVA to convert from natural gas back to coal again. They converted due to the fact that most of their older generation stations are now quite a distance from coal supplies that can be economically mined, so there'll be a lot of track laying and trains running back and forth. The electric bills across the South can expect a big rise just from that.

https://www.pandj.com/project/paradise- ... gas-plant/

Going to be expensive to scrap all that work just as it's finishing up.

Russia and the US, as the number one and number two oil producers, will undoubtedly create a Texas Railroad Commission type intercountry group to set prices and production quotas for oil, as the TRC has done for a very long time now. This will stabilize prices at a higher level, which will make the industry happy. Prices will probably be set at about 64$ per bbl of West Texas Intermediate crude as the target. Five dollars higher and you start more production in Canada - which you don't want in a time of excess production already. That will raise prices at the gas pump to about 2.80 per gallon and then it will sit there. OPEC will become irrelevant. Europe will be very unhappy.

If he gets that tax on Chinese goods, he'd better phase it in over several years. A 45% tax on everything coming from China will essentially double the price of nearly everything at WalMart apart from grocery items. Cell phones would double in price as well, as would nearly every computer related good. If the phase in goes slowly, over several years, that will give time for factories in the US to be built. However, this will not create blue collar jobs, apart from initial construction, as any factory built now will want cheap power, a few dozen software and mechanical engineers and about 10,000 robots. The only blue collar workers will be on contract to clean the place - unless they buy a robot industrial vacuum cleaner.

Then, there's trucking/driving jobs. There are several million of those in the USA, and most of them will go away with the advent of autonomous vehicle piloting software/hardware. The carnage there will not be pretty over the next decade or so. And Trump will be expected to do something about it.

[gerald]

Um, Gerald, when Grant was elected President of the newly reunited states, he was a total flop at administration of government. As is the usual thing for military people, they want to give orders, not negotiate, and that absolutely ruins them for government because they don't want to ask for help.

If you're trying to illustrate that Trump might be the better POTUS, you picked a terrible example.

http://www.lib.niu.edu/1999/ihy990236.html

I wondered if someone would catch that. Grant's presidency was on of the most corrupt up until then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S ... n_scandals "Grant's reactions to the scandals ranged from prosecuting the perpetrators to protecting or pardoning those who were accused and convicted of the crimes." -- I wonder what happens at the end of this administration.

Oppenheimer also had issues.

[Guest]

Will Trump cut a deal with Putin and Russia at the expense of NATO? Do you think the US will drop out of NATO? The former Danish head of NATO said that if Trump does not confront Putin in the first 100 days that NATO is finished. That seems a bit over the top to me.

I would like to drop the smug Europeans. Just seeing the horrified expressions O_O on their faces when the hear the news would be enough for me...

[John]

Several people have suggested that I apply for a job in the Trump
administration. That's very flattering, and it's provoked me into
thinking about the list of reasons why that would be a potential
disaster.

First off, I don't need to apply on some random website. I've worked
with Steve Bannon in the past, and we have a good relationship. I was
in his movie Generation Zero, and we corresponded frequently up until
a few months ago when he was still editor at Breitbart, where my daily
articles are cross-posted. So he already knows who I am and where I
am.

But I already have a job. I was unemployed for two years because of
massive age discrimination in the computer industry. I was going to
run out of money within a few more months, and at my age that would
literally be the end of me. But six weeks ago, by some miracle, I got
a really good job as Senior Software Engineer. It's a very
interesting and challenging project, and it pays well too. And I have
a good relationship with the team I'm working with and with my
managers, all of whom are younger.

So I could imagine a disaster where I quit my current job to take some
other job, lost the new job, and then ended up out on the street
again, with no hope in sight.

And indeed it's very likely that I would be quickly fired, for the
following reasons:

• I have absolutely no political skills whatsoever, nor do I want
  any.
• I'm a very prickly person to deal with, as everyone in this forum
  already knows.
• I piss people off constantly, as everyone in this forum already
  knows.
• People on the left and people on the right are both contemptuous
  of Generational Dynamics.
• I do not "suffer fools gladly," to use the Biblical phrase.
• I'm obnoxious and paranoid, and I'm offensive to Gen-Xers and
  Millennials, many of whom hate me just as a matter of principle.
• Even if I try, I'm unable to stick to a political party line for
  more than 45 seconds.
• Imagine the situation where someone in the media realizes that a
  person in the administration says that with 100% certainly there will
  be a world war, led respectively by the US and China.

I'm thinking of that story from 2014 where North Korea's child
dictator Kim Jong-un decided to get rid of his uncle and mentor, Jang
Song-thaek. According to the story, Jang was stripped naked and
thrown live into a cage with 120 hunting hounds that had been starved
for five days, where he was completely ripped apart and eaten.

That's what would happen to me in a political job.

[John]

> What is MIT System dynamics? Is that similar to generational
> dynamics? Innocent Smith

There's some information on how MIT's System Dynamics is used
in Generational Dynamics in the following paper:

** Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology (PDF)
** http://GenerationalDynamics.com/gdgraph ... namics.pdf

[psCargile]

he'll pardon both Clintons as pretty much his first official actions.

If by that you mean the power granted the President by the Constitution, the Clinton's would first need to be tried, convicted and sentenced for crimes against the United States.

[Guest]

he'll pardon both Clintons as pretty much his first official actions.

If by that you mean the power granted the President by the Constitution, the Clinton's would first need to be tried, convicted and sentenced for crimes against the United States.

Didn't Nixon get pardoned?

[anon]

Indeed Nixon did get pardoned, so did the six Iran Contra criminals who were on their way to trial. A trial is in no way needed for a pardon, given past practice. This false belief gets spread around every few years, apparently by people who never read any recent history.

[gerald]

Indeed Nixon did get pardoned, so did the six Iran Contra criminals who were on their way to trial. A trial is in no way needed for a pardon, given past practice. This false belief gets spread around every few years, apparently by people who never read any recent history.

From what I have read (if true ) Obama does not like Hillary. If Obama wants to get even with Hillary because she did not win to save his legacy, all Obama has to do is not pardon Hillary, that is unless Hillary has something on Obama.

[Jack Edwards]

Gerald said:

From what I have read (if true ) Obama does not like Hillary. If Obama wants to get even with Hillary because she did not win to save his legacy, all Obama has to do is not pardon Hillary, that is unless Hillary has something on Obama.

I've read the same. The big question is - who benefits? Does the act of pardoning help Obama or harm an adversary? If not, why would he do it? I don't think anyone thinks Clinton and Obama are best buds. Clinton just helped sink his legacy. Why should he do her any favors? I just plain don't believe he'd do it because "it's the right thing to do and the nation needs to heal".

So - if he pardons her it will be because:
- In doing so he will be rewarded in some way.
- Pardoning her cuts a link in a chain that ties back to something he's done wrong (it's known that he received e-mails from her private server).
- Pardoning her benefits or protects someone else important to him.

I think pardoning her hurts and stains his legacy - and I think he knows that.

I also think pardoning her helps Trump. Going after Clinton will create sympathy - it's a distraction to getting things done and since Trump is perceived as a bully towards women, going after her is reinforcing to that stereotype. I think both Trump and Obama know that.

I expect there will be no pardon, but if there is - it's because Obama is trying to protect someone not named Clinton.

Regards,
Jack