Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aeden]

viewtopic.php?p=24397#p24397
Jsok covered how fast it will unravel with the chip issues Wed Jun 11, 2014 11:00 pm
Locally just this last summer they sent new trucks to the shredder lacking
chips for function we do not really need anyways. We are set for this year on protein and locally dry goods are failing to the poor.
And yea we can pump water close by or just go the artesian well another 80 yards. We have multiple property's and one rally point.
The inherent waste is staggering. If the grid goes down for any period over a few weeks
you will locally in city run out the lead before we run out of country provisions to avoid the lunatics.
The cops are not coming in those realties they will be Home like the rest of the sane ones who did last time these went sour
from bish zones.

[Higgenbotham]

Those who have looked further like John Michael Greer and Barbara Tuchman date the beginning of the collapse at roughly 1914. They would call it the start of the social collapse or, as Tuchman put it, a collapse in standards.

** 27-May-2021 World View: Barbara Tuchman - A Distant Mirror

Barbara Tuchman
A Distant Mirror The 14th Century and Today

VTR Date: December 4, 1979

Guest: Tuchman, Barbara

THE OPEN MIND
Host: Richard D. Heffner
Guest: Barbara Tuchman
Title: “A Distant Mirror” The 14th Century and Today
VTR: 12/4/79

https://www.thirteen.org/openmind-archi ... and-today/

Thank you, John.

There's a transcript under the video.

As I've said before, I don't advocate that anyone adopt my view, but this interview gives some of the reasons for it. Obviously, Tuchman felt in 1979 that the world was in a similar situation to the 14th Century collapse (a distant mirror). Though aware of the reasons for others thinking so, I didn't feel that way until 2011.

In my personal experience, the difference between 1979 and post 2011 is that, in the period from 1979 to 2011, those with higher standards had the power to elevate the standards around them to avoid low standard outcomes. Today that is impossible on every level. Anyone with high standards today is forced to accept lower standards. I write about this constantly.

I would also strongly recommend her book "The Proud Tower", concerning the world before WW1. I believe that we are at the cusp of a similar conflagration with similar consequences. It would be no shock to most here that such things are the result of similar attitudes/actions on the part of populations.

Here is a summary from a review of this book written last year in the Key Peninsula News:

“The Proud Tower: A Portrait of the World Before the War, 1890-1914” was a bestseller when it was published by historian Barbara Tuchman in 1966. Drawn from a collection of lengthy essays she had written for various magazines, it is a page-burning story of a world blundering toward collapse in what we now call “the Golden Age,” though no one who lived through it thought of it that way at the time.

“A phenomenon of such extended malignance as the Great War does not come out of a Golden Age,” Tuchman wrote.

The book takes its title from the 1845 Edgar Allan Poe poem “The City in the Sea” — “While from a proud tower in the town/Death looks gigantically down.”

“The Great War of 1914-18 lies like a band of scorched earth dividing that time from ours,” Tuchman wrote. “In wiping out so many lives which would have been operative on the years that followed, in destroying beliefs, changing ideas, and leaving incurable wounds of disillusion, it created a physical as well as psychological gulf between two epochs. This book is an attempt to discover the quality of the world from which the Great War came.”

And that’s just the second paragraph.

Like her more famous 1978 portrait of 14th century France, “A Distant Mirror,” Tuchman here too finds parallels in a bygone age that illuminate our own despite the esoteric subject. It’s as if she deliberately chose the most obscure pages of history to prove that modern society is just as vulnerable to the same kind of corrupting human foibles as that bygone age, and that we should guard against it, whether we live in the 1960s or 2020s.

The book is divided into eight chapters, each describing political and social developments in a different country, stretching from the United States across Europe to Russia, and the personalities who drove them. Reading it is something like attending a family reunion with relatives one has never met, resurrecting forgotten history lessons like buried memories (the Haymarket trial, the American invasion of the Philippines, that eccentric introvert Alfred Nobel), coupled with the unnerving sensation of having one’s own passions and antipathies echoed by people now dead for a century.

We step back through time to the era of the landed gentry and patrician parliamentarians of Great Britain at the zenith of her empire, to the fight for universal suffrage for (white) male voters and the eight-hour day on the continent, to the swelling imperialism of the United States, to a decade of assassination and bomb-throwing as a young intellectual movement called Anarchism is hijacked by the impoverished refugees of an eternal underclass who equate lack of government with freedom.

Presidential candidate Theodore Roosevelt publicly calls for the summary execution of socialists and trade unionists, including his opponent Eugene V. Debs. The Czar who freed the serfs is murdered and all thought of further reform in Russia disappears. A nobody French artillery officer, Alfred Dreyfus, is framed for espionage and sent to Devil’s Island, only to be released after the revelation of the corruption and anti-Semitism that sent him there destroys the government. World-weary diplomats establish rules for international arbitration at The Hague, with the certainty that modern war is obsolete. The premiere of Igor Stravinsky’s ballet, “The Rite of Spring,” in 1913 is so radically different from anything that came before, the white-tied gentlemen and elegant ladies of the audience erupt in riot. The first socialist leader of France is shot in the back in a Paris café by a French nationalist and the next day, Aug. 1, 1914, France and Germany mobilize for war.

Critics in 1966 and since have faulted Tuchman for a broad embrace that lacks analysis of the behavior of the Great Nations that led to the Great War. But she admits directly in her preface that while that was her intention at the start, the facts took her elsewhere.

“The Grosse Politik approach has been used up. Besides, it is misleading because it allows us to rest on the easy illusion that it is ‘they,’ the naughty statesmen, who are always responsible for war while ‘we,’ the innocent people, are merely led. That impression is a mistake.”

[aeden]

The dead deserve the truth was the whisper of another lost generation.
The Coastal word from the educated was pessimism today in the press.
You deny the truth of it since you are educated so it remains in you.

[Higgenbotham]

Generally speaking, I look at a war the same way that I look at an
earthquake. That it, you don't blame an earthquake on a politician,
and I (generally) don't blame a war on a politician. Wars are almost
always "bottom-up," not "top-down."

Long-time readers are aware of the following, that I've written in
some form dozens of times in the last 15 years:

> Core Principle of Generational Dynamics:

> "Even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of
> people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians.
> Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II or the Holocaust. What
> politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their
> actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent,
> and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events
> of history -- but can only bring about marginal
> adjustments."

The Core Principle applies to Biden, to Trump, to Obama, to Xi
Jinping, and to all politicians.

Hence my quote in bold from Barbara Tuchman regarding "The Proud Tower" on the last page. She came to the same conclusion.

“The Grosse Politik approach has been used up. Besides, it is misleading because it allows us to rest on the easy illusion that it is ‘they,’ the naughty statesmen, who are always responsible for war while ‘we,’ the innocent people, are merely led. That impression is a mistake.”

[Higgenbotham]

About the Episode

Businesses that lead on climate and sustainability will have tailwinds at their back, says Rich Lesser, BCG’s global chair. Reaching net zero will require investments of $3 trillion to $5 trillion per year for the next 30 years—and it is much smarter to participate in this massive industrial transformation than to fight it. To succeed, businesses will need to engage deeply with other businesses, their customers, and governments. The challenge is too large to go it alone or to view government as an impediment. For businesses that want to do the right thing, Lesser says, “getting government policies that raise the standard for everyone is in their interest.” Lesser also talks about his own evolution in understanding the climate crisis, how purpose can drive performance, and why the job of CEO today is harder but more rewarding than it was a decade ago.

Episode Guest

Rich Lesser

Rich Lesser is BCG’s global chair; he previously served as BCG's CEO from 2013-2021. As CEO, Rich initiated BCG's pledge to reach net zero climate impact by 2030. Rich currently serves as chief advisor to the World Economic Forum’s Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, on the steering committee of the Council for Inclusive Capitalism, on the board of directors of the Centre for Public Impact, and is a member of several leading organizations, such as the WEF’s Community of Chairpersons, the EDISON Alliance, Southern Communities Initiative, among others.

https://www.bcg.com/podcasts/the-so-wha ... ich-lesser

We look forward to hearing more about your net-zero commitments and hope that COP26 in November is a breakthrough moment for business action on climate change. We thank you in advance for your consideration and leadership in helping the world address this urgent global issue.

Sincerely,

Klaus Schwab, Chairman, World Economic Forum

Brian Moynihan, Chairman and CEO, Bank of America, Chair, International Business Council

Christian Mumenthaler, CEO, Swiss Re, Co-Chair to the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders

Jesper Brodin, CEO, Ingka Group I IKEA, Co-Chair to the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders

Feike Sijbesma, Honorary Chairman of Royal DSM, Co-Chair to the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, Member of World Economic Forum Board of Trustees

Rich Lesser, CEO, BCG, Chief Advisor to the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/ ... ro-letter/

Before discussing this ESG cult any further...

Gail did the work I was going to do. Lesser and the WEF are dreaming. You can't remake the world the way you want to just because you said so.

In my most recent post, I mentioned that Professor Joseph Tainter, author of the book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, says that when energy supplies are inadequate, the resulting economic system will need to simplify – in other words, lose some of its complexity. In fact, we can see that such loss of complexity started happening as early as the Great Recession in 2008-2009.

The world was on a fossil fuel energy consumption per capita plateau between 2007 and 2019. It now seems to be in danger of falling below this level. It fell in 2020, and only partially rebounded in 2021. When it tried to rebound further in 2022, it hit high price limits, reducing demand.

Figure 2. Fossil fuel energy consumption per capita based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

There was a big dip in energy consumption per capita in 2008-2009 when the economy encountered the Great Recession. If we compare Figure 2 and Figure 3, we see that the big drop in energy consumption is matched by a big drop in trade as a percentage of GDP. In fact, the drop in trade after the 2008-2009 recession never rebounded to the former level.

Figure 3. Trade as a percentage of world GDP, based on data of the World Bank.

Another type of loss of complexity involves the drop in the recent number of college students. The number of students was rising rapidly between 1950 and 2010, so the downward trend represents a significant shift.
Figure 4. Total number of US full-time and part-time undergraduate college and university students, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

The shutdowns of 2020 added further shifts toward less complexity. Broken supply lines became more of a problem. Empty shelves in stores became common, as did long waits for newly ordered appliances and replacement parts for cars. People stopped buying as many fancy clothes. Brick and mortar stores did less well financially. In person conferences became less popular.

We know that, in the past, economies that collapsed lost complexity. In some cases, tax revenue fell too low for governments to maintain their programs. Citizens became terribly unhappy with the poor level of government services being provided, and they overthrew the governmental system.

The US Department of Energy states that it will be necessary to double or triple the size of the US electric grid to accommodate the proposed level of clean energy, including EVs, by 2050. This is, of course, a kind of complexity. If we are already having difficulty with maintaining complexity, how do we expect to double or triple the size of the US electric grid? The rest of the world would likely need such an upgrade, as well. A huge increase in fossil fuel energy, as well as complexity, would be required.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/03/05/w ... le-energy/

[Higgenbotham]

When I moved to Texas in 2005, I thought there would be a plateau for about 10 years before the collapse into the dark age, then I would move to the Dakotas, Montana, or Idaho.

The world was on a fossil fuel energy consumption per capita plateau between 2007 and 2019. It now seems to be in danger of falling below this level. It fell in 2020, and only partially rebounded in 2021. When it tried to rebound further in 2022, it hit high price limits, reducing demand.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/03/05/w ... le-energy/

John Michael Greer and Gail Tverberg are the 2 that come to mind when I say this. They've been trading barbs online. So far the collapse has been slow as John Michael Greer has been predicting. He's been saying since at least 2006 that this collapse will be pretty much like all the previous historical collapses. It seems crazy to me that that will be the case and I've talked about the reasons why here. The biggest reason is that because this is an industrial age economy with a fast growth rate, we are drawing down renewable resources about 20 times faster than Rome was at its peak. Plus by expertly continuing to kick the can down the road, which is about all the ruling class seems to be expert at, resources are being drawn down past the comparable times of previous collapses, probably. Yet John Michael ignores this (my interpretation), and though he has been expecting a new dark age for some time, he moved to Providence, Rhode Island to ride it out. That's the last place I would consider riding this thing out. Gail says this is a networked economy and when the network breaks there will be a huge collapse, much worse than any historical example. I don't want to put words in her mouth, but that's my interpretation of what she is saying. I agree with Gail. In fact, that's what my predictions I've posted repeatedly say in so many words.

The test of any theory does not come on the plateau, it comes on the downslope.

[Higgenbotham]

Gail did the work I was going to do. Lesser and the WEF are dreaming. You can't remake the world the way you want to just because you said so.

Every politician would like a “happily ever after” story to tell citizens. Fortunately, from the point of view of politicians, there are lots of economists and scientists who put together what I call “overly simple” models of the economy. With these overly simple models of the economy, there is no problem ahead. They believe the standard narrative about oil and other energy prices rising indefinitely, so there is no energy problem. Instead, our only problem is climate change and the need to transition to green energy.

The catch is that our ability to scale up green energy is just an illusion, built on the belief that complexity can scale up indefinitely without the use of fossil fuels.

We are left with a major problem: Our current complex economy is in danger of degrading remarkably in the next few years, but we have no replacement available. Even before then, we may need to do battle, in new ways, with other countries for the limited resources that are available.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/03/05/w ... le-energy/

[Higgenbotham]

In Sections [4], [5], and [6], we will see that this methodology seems to lead to a situation in which competition leads to different parts of the economy (energy producers and energy consumers) being alternately disadvantaged. This approach leads to a situation in which the human population declines more slowly than in either of the other possible outcomes:

Energy producers win, and high energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that high prices for food and heat for homes would quickly kill off much of the world’s population because of lack of affordability.

Energy consumers always win, and low energy prices prevail – The real outcome would be that energy supplies would fall very rapidly because of inadequate prices. Population would fall quickly because of a lack of energy supplies (particularly diesel fuel) needed to maintain food supplies.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/03/05/w ... le-energy/

This occurred to me at one time regarding inflation and deflation. I had the thought that if Powell (or whoever the Fed chairman is) deliberately went back and forth between inflation and deflation without losing control that he would be able to squeeze the maximum time out of what remains of the useful life of the system. Probably the reason I discarded that idea is because bureaucrats tend to be cautious and I felt he would try to straddle the line as best he could to avoid losing control.

But if Gail is right and there is some kind of driving force behind what she is saying that results from the actions or needs of all of the various constituencies, then perhaps what will be seen is alternating inflation and deflation.

[Higgenbotham]

The stuff I've posted in the past couple pages might be compared to Swiss cheese. It's not rigorous. Not enough thought was put into it. It lacks clarity and some pieces of the puzzle. There are obvious holes in it. That refers to my own thoughts, not those of others. Yet, at the same time, it provides enough information to be a starting point for assessing how serious the situation is and that it's not The Fall of Rome II or The 1930s II - there are problems that likely will matter that go beyond that.

[Guest 45]

Excellent thread! Yes, I see the decline happening all around me. I cannot believe how many people are still focused on hating Trump and fighting for the rights of illegals, permanently aggrieved minorities, and tyrannies. It's not 1985 anymore.