Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[aeden]

Von der Leyen refuted Europe should ‘decouple’.
Early so view is review three peaks and dome as before attitude.
The island top will be guaged.
Emptor the pace H
Sun Oct 23, 2022 10:18 am If/then to if/bacause as we loosely discussed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpndGZ71yww

[Higgenbotham]

Von der Leyen refuted Europe should ‘decouple’.
Early so view is review three peaks and dome as before attitude.
The island top will be guaged.
Emptor the pace H
Sun Oct 23, 2022 10:18 am If/then to if/bacause as we loosely discussed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpndGZ71yww

Of the Big 8 discussed in the financial topics thread awhile back, 6 as a rule don't top pick. But of the 2 who do (and they are good), both are looking for a crash. One just posted having gotten short at today's close. Maybe I'll post a summary this weekend. I don't use any outside opinions except the 8. There is a cycle completion for a crash pattern according to my studies but those have only tended to work when the Fed has lost control. I think the Fed has lost control. I suppose they could hyperinflate now to get out of it but that appears to me to be all they can do to avoid a crash.

[Guest]

guest (note you do not have the male reproductive glands to have even a distinct handle, much less an account), the only way we will know for sure is to run the experiment. Fortunately this has not been done (as of yet).

I hit a nerve.

No, I will continue to enjoy the cloak of anonymity.

Now, if you will excuse me, I have to work on the addition to my single wide.

[aeden]

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=kACWtnm4
You may indeed improve on your quality as the swamp walks in circles to utter darkness and reprobate minds.
Consent has already been removed since nothing they offer is of any value going forward as the bish zone infections enter phase two entering hell bent of mind to collapse in lie cheat steal burn loot murder. Mutilated genitals and molek cult is all they wallow in now.
Americans who think it matters now can worship any root kit they choose since it's been over. No one listens to swamp cult uniparty rotted Potatoes.
Its worthless as inputs fail. The astro turf pols cannot turn this around. Years to late and years behind to maintain the actual price of trust.
They are not modern. Our zone appears to be heading to the phase three rope burn phase. To late as the Feral's take out what's considered
viable with once again educated studies as they go under murdering what's left. Products no one wants with retards decades behind facts with no inputs to outputs wanted in cost wage structures decades behind affordability since even the basic maps from the PPI gaps.

PPI is used as forecasting a product for a specific period, determining if the product can weather a price increase, and predicting raw materials.
The adjustments are just that. Worthless to Consumers who are the final and ruthless arbiters utterly done as another demographic reality as the experts of red diapers run to demographics gaps for shit products of cult debt wanted and even less can or will purchase in the bish squalor structures worshipped. The actual disconnects are staggering to watch.
These assholes think 310 trillion is a good idea to add more with morons who think you owe it to yourself abject brain dead retards.

Stop trying to pretend that the USA's banking crisis is a European crisis, its isn't.
The Crisis is the Dollar and US debt not the sinking Euro, not the inflated pound, not the yuan, or the Swiss Franc.
Ignore Bernays and Freidman all you want.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzAxa-cBZjI

[Higgenbotham]

guest (note you do not have the male reproductive glands to have even a distinct handle, much less an account), the only way we will know for sure is to run the experiment. Fortunately this has not been done (as of yet).

I hit a nerve.

No, I will continue to enjoy the cloak of anonymity.

Now, if you will excuse me, I have to work on the addition to my single wide.

Among people who've been seeing collapse for a long time, there has been debate about how bad it will be. I would think (maybe others wouldn't) that they would just say, yes, we agree there is going to be a collapse but we have differences in opinion about how bad it will be. Those differences in opinion, though, have life and death consequences providing the collapse crowd is right and therefore the debate seems to be emotionally charged. My take on that has been that it's pretty difficult to know what is going to happen and everyone should make their own best guesses. If my guesses are wrong, then I may die. That's just how it goes. John Michael Greer and Gail Tverberg are the 2 that come to mind when I say this. They've been trading barbs online. So far the collapse has been slow as John Michael Greer has been predicting. He's been saying since at least 2006 that this collapse will be pretty much like all the previous historical collapses. It seems crazy to me that that will be the case and I've talked about the reasons why here. The biggest reason is that because this is an industrial age economy with a fast growth rate, we are drawing down renewable resources about 20 times faster than Rome was at its peak. Plus by expertly continuing to kick the can down the road, which is about all the ruling class seems to be expert at, resources are being drawn down past the comparable times of previous collapses, probably. Yet John Michael ignores this (my interpretation), and though he has been expecting a new dark age for some time, he moved to Providence, Rhode Island to ride it out. That's the last place I would consider riding this thing out. Gail says this is a networked economy and when the network breaks there will be a huge collapse, much worse than any historical example. I don't want to put words in her mouth, but that's my interpretation of what she is saying. I agree with Gail. In fact, that's what my predictions I've posted repeatedly say in so many words.

Bill Gates and others say this is not like Roman times because of all the great technology we have. To that point, let's talk about some of this great technology and how it relates to the drawdown of the resource. I only see technology that works to draw the resource out faster; for example, irrigation in the Midwest that draws down the aquifers, or fracking that draws down the oil resource. Both of these then allow the renewable resource excess extraction rate to be maintained at a higher level than would otherwise be possible. There does not exist any great technology which is putting water back into aquifers or increasing stores of liquid fuels (unless it depletes the other resources - ethanol for example). Most of the enhancement of soil is done with fossil fuel derived products.

The key point of the book is that more than 1,500 years separate our current era from Roman times, and life has changed so much that any sense of similarity is illusory. In Roman times, people had barely enough food to sustain them. Human and animal muscle power comprised virtually the entire kinetic energy source. Life expectancy was between 20 and 30 years. Income levels were a fraction of what we have today. So the dynamics of “surviving” were completely different then.

Smil makes an important point regarding scientific and technical advances. Whereas U.S. innovation has played a central role in creating a modern global civilization in less than 150 years, “the Roman Empire had an unremarkable…record in advancing scientific understanding, and its overall contributions to technical and engineering innovations were…fairly limited.”

http://www.gatesnotes.com/Books/Compari ... cient-Rome

and the point you noted ---- "Or another way to think about it is what happens when you jump from the 20th floor all at once instead of taking the stairs down from the 5th floor (where you should have been to begin with) to the 3rd floor."

That would have to do with whether hard limits to profits apply or whether it is possible to extend the larger picture by stagflating an industrial economy. History shows that it is possible to stagflate an agricultural economy but there are a lot of reasons for me to expect that when people have to eat they don't close up shop versus when they have an unprofitable business they do close up shop.

The two processes appear similar in that more is extracted out of the ground than can be replaced to maintain a steady state condition.

It may be that the excess extraction rate initially exceeds the replacement rate required to maintain steady state approximately proportionally to the growth of the population. The growth rate of the population was approximately 0.1% per year in Roman times versus 2% per year in these late Industrial Age times. There would be a point where the population has grown sufficiently to consume the replacement that nature provides to those resounces that are renewable. At the time that point is hit, if the population is growing at a rate of 2% versus 0.1%; with all other conditions being equal, the first year drawdown is occurring at the relative rate of 2% divided by 0.1%. This would mean that the drawdown of the renewable resource where the Industrial Age population is growing 20 times faster than an Agricultural Age population will proceed 20 times faster, approximately, during year 1 of drawdown. This would relate to things that directly affect food production such as soil and water.

Bill Gates and others say this is not like Roman times because of all the great technology we have. To that point, let's talk about some of this great technology and how it relates to the drawdown of the resource. I only see technology that works to draw the resource out faster; for example, irrigation in the Midwest that draws down the aquifers, or fracking that draws down the oil resource. Both of these then allow the renewable resource excess extraction rate to be maintained at a higher level than would otherwise be possible. There does not exist any great technology which is putting water back into aquifers or increasing stores of liquid fuels (unless it depletes the other resources - ethanol for example). Most of the enhancement of soil is done with fossil fuel derived products.

In Roman times they were extracting out of the ground whereas now the extraction is out of the earth in the form of energy, which then enables faster rates of extraction out of the ground. I think it is the rate of extraction and the differential between the rate of extraction prior to collapse that will make the difference in the speed of the collapse, as well as the points noted earlier that are the practical points as to how that may happen in reality. In an agricultural economy, during the collapse, people get less food and there is a process of attrition that lasts a long time - decades or centuries. Even separating the rest of our economy from the agricultural economy and considering just that process, the layering of the industrial economy onto the agricultural economy allows for agriculture to deplete at a much faster rate than was observed historically during previous collapses.

So while I read that "the way to picture how a collapse will take place is to read about how that process has historically occurred" I doubt very much that will be the case. That would be especially true given how the Central Bankers are running the hamster on the wheel at maximum speed.

Collapse Functions.jpg
Excess.jpg

Graphs are here:
viewtopic.php?p=24366#p24366

[Higgenbotham]

Markets are headed for a rally right before a recession 'pounds away at the economy,' JPMorgan Asset Management CIO says

Story by mchittum@insider.com (Morgan Chittum) • Yesterday 2:30 PM


Investors should not lean into the fleeting rally next quarter amid a looming recession, JPMorgan's Bob Michele says.
"If we've been taught anything this past month, you may see it coming or you may not."
Markets are headed for a brief rally before an inevitable slowdown in the economy, according to JPMorgan Asset Management CIO Bob Michele.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Friday, Michele says risk assets will rise in the next quarter as they did during the Great Financial Crisis in the mid 2000s when a slew of major banks failed as well.

"Having been an investor through the financial crisis, and [having looked at] that seminal moment when Bear Stearns and JPMorgan combined...The next quarter was great for markets. Equities went up 15% to 20%," Michele said. "High-yield credit spreads retraced a quarter and then the bottom fell out."

He added: "You could have a feel good period and then the reality of the cumulative lag [catches] up and [slows] the economy down."

Investors should not lean into the rally as gains will be fleeting, Michele says, adding that the US will enter a recession by year-end which will "pound away at the economy."

This follows the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening over the past year in an effort to bring down inflation.

"If we've been taught anything this past month, you may see it coming or you may not. You don't know exactly where it's going to hit," he added, nodding to the abrupt failure of several banks in March that caught markets off guard. "But once it hits, whatever you own, you own, and you have to hope that you own the stuff that recovers."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... a5956&ei=6




The post Bear Stearns rally is shown in the first image from the March low to May 2008. My view is that the equivalent of that rally already happened as shown in the second image from October 2022 to February 2023. When the Bear Stearns and SVB collapses occurred are random within the overall pattern of the chart, as the stock market doesn't reflect when a bank collapses, it takes into account much more than that.

The two questions in my mind are how much pain the fraudsters and manipulators like JP Morgan want to create for the shorts and how much they can in fact create. The answers are as much as they possibly can and maybe their ability to create pain is now limited somewhat more than it was in the past.

[Higgenbotham]

A lot of people are strictly looking at the economy and that's what always goes last. Those who have looked further like John Michael Greer and Barbara Tuchman date the beginning of the collapse at roughly 1914. They would call it the start of the social collapse or, as Tuchman put it, a collapse in standards. There was also a poster in the early days of this forum who said that. At the time, that didn't seem obvious to me.

The way I always saw it was things were declining in some ways but it was always possible to turn it around until more recently. But since about 2011 I think the point of no return was passed. My take is there was this sort of gray area between 1992 and 2011 where maybe just a really bad depression was in the cards but a new dark age could have been avoided.

Probably others who are more learned in this field would say that no, a dark age was unavoidable going all the way back to the first world war, it was just a case of the path it would take. That may be right.

Which reminds me, I read recently that "dark age" has been dropped in academic circles as an acceptable reference to what happened after the fall of Rome. I can't remember what the "proper" descriptor is that replaced it.

[Higgenbotham]

Which reminds me, I read recently that "dark age" has been dropped in academic circles as an acceptable reference to what happened after the fall of Rome. I can't remember what the "proper" descriptor is that replaced it.

Migration period
European history

Alternate titles: Early Middle Ages, Late Antiquity
Migration period
Date: 500 - 1000
Location: Europe
Context: Middle Ages

Migration period, also called Dark Ages or Early Middle Ages, the early medieval period of western European history—specifically, the time (476–800 CE) when there was no Roman (or Holy Roman) emperor in the West or, more generally, the period between about 500 and 1000, which was marked by frequent warfare and a virtual disappearance of urban life. The name of the period refers to the movement of so-called barbarian peoples—including the Huns, Goths, Vandals, Bulgars, Alani, Suebi, and Franks—into what had been the Western Roman Empire. The term “Dark Ages” is now rarely used by historians because of the value judgment it implies. Though sometimes taken to derive its meaning from the dearth of information about the period, the term’s more usual and pejorative sense is of a period of intellectual darkness and barbarity. See Middle Ages; Germanic peoples.

This article was most recently revised and updated by Naomi Blumberg.

https://www.britannica.com/event/Dark-Ages

[Higgenbotham]

And he was talking about the appearance on the world stage of individuals, and he was speaking to the growth of the population and the appearance of new individuals coming into the mass of humanity, and these individuals evidently are barbarians. They came too suddenly to be educated and for the knowledge of how to keep the Western way of life alive. And so these people have increased and now they have taken over power and so now we're in the hands of barbarians. They have no idea of how our society came to be and what is necessary to keep it going. And they're fiddling with the controls. You might think of a monkey flying a 747. They have no idea what they are doing and this is not going to end well with the barbarians at the controls.

We don't have people with a true background of education in history and economics and politics. They're all working on the spur of the moment. They're experimenting to see if this works and see if that works and I really have very serious doubts about the survival of our civilization under such people. I rather expect that a great crisis is coming when the grain will be sifted from the chaff. We're going to see a great separation. Some people are just not going to make it and the old truths are going to come back into fashion because of the need for survival.

--Hugo Salinas Price (transcribed from the link above)

"In 1987 Ricardo succeeded his father Hugo Salinas Price as CEO of Grupo Elektra. He is the fourth richest person in Mexico behind Carlos Slim Helu and the 34th richest person in the world with a wealth of around US $17.4 billion in 2012."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ricardo_Salinas_Pliego

[Higgenbotham]

Gail says this is a networked economy and when the network breaks there will be a huge collapse, much worse than any historical example. I don't want to put words in her mouth, but that's my interpretation of what she is saying. I agree with Gail. In fact, that's what my predictions I've posted repeatedly say in so many words.

It may be that the excess extraction rate initially exceeds the replacement rate required to maintain steady state approximately proportionally to the growth of the population. The growth rate of the population was approximately 0.1% per year in Roman times versus 2% per year in these late Industrial Age times. There would be a point where the population has grown sufficiently to consume the replacement that nature provides to those resounces that are renewable. At the time that point is hit, if the population is growing at a rate of 2% versus 0.1%; with all other conditions being equal, the first year drawdown is occurring at the relative rate of 2% divided by 0.1%. This would mean that the drawdown of the renewable resource where the Industrial Age population is growing 20 times faster than an Agricultural Age population will proceed 20 times faster, approximately, during year 1 of drawdown. This would relate to things that directly affect food production such as soil and water.

In Roman times they were extracting out of the ground whereas now the extraction is out of the earth in the form of energy, which then enables faster rates of extraction out of the ground. I think it is the rate of extraction and the differential between the rate of extraction prior to collapse that will make the difference in the speed of the collapse, as well as the points noted earlier that are the practical points as to how that may happen in reality. In an agricultural economy, during the collapse, people get less food and there is a process of attrition that lasts a long time - decades or centuries. Even separating the rest of our economy from the agricultural economy and considering just that process, the layering of the industrial economy onto the agricultural economy allows for agriculture to deplete at a much faster rate than was observed historically during previous collapses.

When the Economy Gets Squeezed by Too Little Energy
Posted on March 5, 2023 by Gail Tverberg

Most people have a simple, but wrong, idea about how the world economy will respond to “not enough energy to go around.” They expect that oil prices will rise. With these higher prices, producers will be able to extract more fossil fuels so the system can go on as before. They also believe that wind turbines, solar panels and other so-called renewables can be made with these fossil fuels, perhaps extending the life of the system further.

The insight people tend to miss is the fact that the world’s economy is a physics-based, self-organizing system. Such economies grow for many years, but ultimately, they collapse. The underlying problem is that the population tends to grow too rapidly relative to the energy supplies necessary to support that population. History shows that such collapses take place over a period of years. The question becomes: What happens to an economy beginning its path toward full collapse?

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2023/03/05/w ... le-energy/

I don't read Gail all the time or even most of the time, but when I do I find her take to be among the most accurate out there, in my opinion. Checking her latest brings this up right away. And of course even if there is some kind of collapse beyond the typical generational cycle, the generational cycles will still be part of that.