Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

[vincecate]

Japan is down 20% in a month. Thought I would say hi to folks. Hope everyone is well.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/

[John]

** 05-Aug-2024 World View: Hello Vinceecate

Japan is down 20% in a month. Thought I
would say hi to folks. Hope everyone is
well.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/

It's good to see you after all this
time, and as you know there's a
massive global selloff in progress
this morning. It remains to be seen
whether this turns into a full panic.

I've been wondering -- how are your
plans to escape with your family to
sea in a floating home?

[vincecate]

I've been wondering -- how are your
plans to escape with your family to
sea in a floating home?

I am moving very slowly on this but still working on getting government permission to build. Seems like it is all going to be ok just taking a long time.

Also been busy with .ai sales for the Government. Now around 1/3rd of the Government income but will jump up even more by Apr as all the 2 year renewals from the ChatGPT boom come due.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1DhGSw46tk
They are getting so much money that they got rid of property tax on residences. I think this may be the first country to have property tax on houses and then get rid of that tax. As the .ai money keeps going up I hope taxes keep going down. So floating house does not seem so urgent with taxes going down.

But I have the land to build the Seasteads and a huge crane and some of the parts. So slowly making some progress. It will happen some day.

[Higgenbotham]

Probably the Fed will make some noises or even some moves Sunday night or early next week to try to slow the angle of descent of the stock market.

It's been noted here and oft repeated by Gundlach that the Fed follows the 2 year. That would indicate a rate cut, but they probably won't do an emergency rate cut unless the market (S&P 500) goes below 5,000 the first half of this month. Just my best guess based on past behavior.

FEDERAL RESERVE
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will ‘fix it’
PUBLISHED MON, AUG 5 2024 8:47 AM EDT UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
Jeff Cox

KEY POINTS

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Monday on CNBC that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy.

“I’m not going to bind our hands of what should happen going forward because we’re still going to get more information. But if we are not overheating, we should not be tightening or restrictive in real terms,” he said.

Markets expect the Fed to head into an aggressive easing mode, starting in September with a 0.5 percentage-point rate cut.


Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: If conditions start to deteriorate, the Fed will 'fix it'

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now.

Asked whether weakening in the labor market and manufacturing sector could prompt a response from the Fed, Goolsbee did not commit to a specific course of action but said it does not make sense to keep a “restrictive” policy stance if the economy is weakening. He also declined to comment on whether the Fed would institute an emergency intermeeting cut.

“The Fed’s job is very straightforward: maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. That’s what we’re going to do,” the central bank official said during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” program. “We’re forward-looking about it. So if the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.”

The interview occurred with markets in turmoil.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/chicago ... ix-it.html

[Higgenbotham]

Since the sod was first overturned over 150 years ago when the first Homestead Act was enacted, Nebraska has lost roughly 7 inches of topsoil per acre, according to NRCS calculations. Meanwhile, it takes at least 100 years to build an inch of topsoil — but it can take as many as 500 years. We live in a fast-paced society where quick fixes are often sought, but building topsoil and soil organic matter take long-term solutions. But before you can build, you've got to stop erosion and prevent the loss of organic matter.

https://www.farmprogress.com/management ... ic-matter-

[aedens]

Correct H. Pretext 2019 map.
Also. https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/sites/default ... -Earth.pdf

Sun Apr 02, 2023 5:13 am
Six feet to less than six inches was the USDA observation for well over the last 100 years losses.
The last actual map was at the Chicago Museum of natural History for a snapshot reference.
The micro measurements are available.

[Higgenbotham]

In this dark age hovel I try to emphasize the underlying dark age processes that are underreported and underappreciated.

David Montgomery on the Erosion of Civilizations

Societies throughout history have made their living farming and one of the strange things about the history of farming is that it has resulted in long term soil degradation in society after society back from the early days of Mesopotamia through classical Greece, ancient Rome, Northern Europe the southern United States. Societies around the world that have treated their land in ways that that degraded the soil in the end the soil was not able to support them over the long run so in a very real sense the history of humanity as a post-glacial exercise and expansion via agriculture has had this sort of dark side that is undermined by the sustainability of farming practices that we rely on to maintain the continuity of civilizations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7yvOm1ElSI

Longer discussion which I have not watched all of yet:
Dave Montgomery - Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQACN-XiqHU

[Higgenbotham]

Here are a couple discussions about composting that I bookmarked recently for reference.

https://permies.com/t/216709/Wood-Chips
https://permies.com/t/107725/composting ... ng-process

The basic idea being that, even when done deliberately, the process of building soil is ultimately a very slow one.

I first noticed and became interested in this topic when composting kitchen waste in my previous dark age hovel, where I composted about 7 years worth of kitchen waste on an apartment balcony. What was left after I thought the process was complete filled a half whiskey barrel (about 30 gallons). However, after sitting another year, it had shrunk to about 20 gallons.

[Higgenbotham]

From a practical standpoint, in the physical dark age hovel, I started digging compost pits on April 21, as noted here. I covered the material with soil, hoping to maintain more of the decomposition products in the soil. The processes seem to move faster than what I was used to in colder climates and, much to my surprise, the soil in the first pit seemed fertile and ready to plant by mid July. I was anticipating a minimum of one year.

So after doing some testing indoors with hard red wheat, I planted one tomato plant late July and another a week later as a further test. Right now in Central Texas we are at 100 degrees this afternoon with an anticipated 103 degree high after several days of temperatures around 100 degrees. The plants are holding up well and the first one is flowering in several places. It's unlikely it will set fruit in this heat. The fact that it is flowering, while still growing rapidly, is promising.

I'll be surprised if my first efforts don't result in failures.

[Higgenbotham]

Japan is down 20% in a month. Thought I would say hi to folks. Hope everyone is well.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/

Hi Vince, good to hear from you and to know your property tax has been eliminated.