Wargaming a conflict
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:53 am
For the purposes of this post, I'm leaving nuclear weapons out of the equation, focusing on conventional forces alone for an invasion of Taiwan.
Both sides face one major problem: they don't have either the manpower or the equipment for a sustained conflict. China's air force production rate, as things stand, is around 100-150 planes a year, nowhere near enough to replace the losses they'd endure for even an invasion of Taiwan, let alone Japan and the United States.
We've got the advantage in numbers and quality, even if that gap has shrunk in recent years. Problem is, our forces are spread out all over the world and it would take months to redeploy in great numbers. Out of 11 carriers for instance, perhaps 6 are active at any given time.
As I write this, Taiwan alone has 600 aircraft, half of which are fighters. China has more than 2,000 combat aircraft, but not all of them are modernized. They have only a couple dozen stealth aircraft and many of their aircraft are Chengdu J-7s and Xian HK-7s, decades ago. Certainly China would be able to achieve air superiority over Taiwan, but taking into account losses from enemy aircraft, SAM systems, and mechanical failure, you'd be talking a couple hundred planes lost even in an optimistic scenario.
But it's unlikely China would be fighting Taiwan alone. Nor can they focus all their strength in the Pacific, facing possible incursions from India, South Korea, and even Russia. Japan's air forces, unlike China's, are fully modernized, including 25 F-35 planes. While they haven't made their debut in combat, initial concerns about viability seem to be unfounded.
The combined air forces of South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are a close match for China, taking into account other fronts the CCP has to consider. I don't currently have knowledge on how well-trained the pilots of each side are, but both would be losing planes far quicker than they could be replaced. Gearing up for a wartime economy takes years to do. Inflicting any significant damage to the other's industry through strategic bombing would be out of the question.
China's navy is geared toward fighting in its own backyard and has the advantage of being able to concentrate all its strength in a single location, whereas we're spread all over the planet. The so-called "carrier-killers" have gotten a lot of attention, but there's a difference between hitting a stationary target and a moving ship shielded by several escort ships and its compliment of aircraft. I'd actually consider the big danger to aircraft carriers to be submarines rather than the DF-21 and DF-26.
At least in the short term, China has the strength to push us out of the South China Sea. However, the constant air combat with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would bleed their forces dry, likely leaving all combatants with a shattered air force. Nobody would be able to keep up with losses without fully transitioning to a war economy.
And we'd still have other ways of hurting them, using B-2s to bomb their naval bases and air fields. Even with 20, they'd inflict considerable damage China could ill afford given its previous losses. Perhaps the biggest blow we could deliver to them is blockading the Strait of Malacca, where most of their oil imports came from. It's easy to overlook that China's more dependent on oil imports than we are, and Russian supplies wouldn't be able to fill the demand. They can defend the immediate surroundings from our navy, but their ability to break the blockade is limited to nonexistent.
Our military as a percentage of our population is half of what it was during Desert Storm. China's got a larger army, but it's still got to transport and supply millions of people. So I think it quite possible we could end up with our own version of a "Phony War" once we've burned through our initial equipment until our economy gears up for war. China would have to have a good head start, which is possible, given the likely reluctance of the American public to fight a major conflict.
Military satellites on all sides would be destroyed, severely impacting our communications. This is the kind of war no one has any experience in, given a major war hasn't been fought since 1945. Questions about how vulnerable aircraft carriers are, how trained pilots and naval personnel happen to be, likely won't be answered until fighting breaks out. Wokeness has damaged our armed forces, but we've still got experience fighting in real combat, something China doesn't possess.
Both sides face one major problem: they don't have either the manpower or the equipment for a sustained conflict. China's air force production rate, as things stand, is around 100-150 planes a year, nowhere near enough to replace the losses they'd endure for even an invasion of Taiwan, let alone Japan and the United States.
We've got the advantage in numbers and quality, even if that gap has shrunk in recent years. Problem is, our forces are spread out all over the world and it would take months to redeploy in great numbers. Out of 11 carriers for instance, perhaps 6 are active at any given time.
As I write this, Taiwan alone has 600 aircraft, half of which are fighters. China has more than 2,000 combat aircraft, but not all of them are modernized. They have only a couple dozen stealth aircraft and many of their aircraft are Chengdu J-7s and Xian HK-7s, decades ago. Certainly China would be able to achieve air superiority over Taiwan, but taking into account losses from enemy aircraft, SAM systems, and mechanical failure, you'd be talking a couple hundred planes lost even in an optimistic scenario.
But it's unlikely China would be fighting Taiwan alone. Nor can they focus all their strength in the Pacific, facing possible incursions from India, South Korea, and even Russia. Japan's air forces, unlike China's, are fully modernized, including 25 F-35 planes. While they haven't made their debut in combat, initial concerns about viability seem to be unfounded.
The combined air forces of South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are a close match for China, taking into account other fronts the CCP has to consider. I don't currently have knowledge on how well-trained the pilots of each side are, but both would be losing planes far quicker than they could be replaced. Gearing up for a wartime economy takes years to do. Inflicting any significant damage to the other's industry through strategic bombing would be out of the question.
China's navy is geared toward fighting in its own backyard and has the advantage of being able to concentrate all its strength in a single location, whereas we're spread all over the planet. The so-called "carrier-killers" have gotten a lot of attention, but there's a difference between hitting a stationary target and a moving ship shielded by several escort ships and its compliment of aircraft. I'd actually consider the big danger to aircraft carriers to be submarines rather than the DF-21 and DF-26.
At least in the short term, China has the strength to push us out of the South China Sea. However, the constant air combat with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would bleed their forces dry, likely leaving all combatants with a shattered air force. Nobody would be able to keep up with losses without fully transitioning to a war economy.
And we'd still have other ways of hurting them, using B-2s to bomb their naval bases and air fields. Even with 20, they'd inflict considerable damage China could ill afford given its previous losses. Perhaps the biggest blow we could deliver to them is blockading the Strait of Malacca, where most of their oil imports came from. It's easy to overlook that China's more dependent on oil imports than we are, and Russian supplies wouldn't be able to fill the demand. They can defend the immediate surroundings from our navy, but their ability to break the blockade is limited to nonexistent.
Our military as a percentage of our population is half of what it was during Desert Storm. China's got a larger army, but it's still got to transport and supply millions of people. So I think it quite possible we could end up with our own version of a "Phony War" once we've burned through our initial equipment until our economy gears up for war. China would have to have a good head start, which is possible, given the likely reluctance of the American public to fight a major conflict.
Military satellites on all sides would be destroyed, severely impacting our communications. This is the kind of war no one has any experience in, given a major war hasn't been fought since 1945. Questions about how vulnerable aircraft carriers are, how trained pilots and naval personnel happen to be, likely won't be answered until fighting breaks out. Wokeness has damaged our armed forces, but we've still got experience fighting in real combat, something China doesn't possess.