Wargaming a conflict

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Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Wargaming a conflict

Post by Trevor »

For the purposes of this post, I'm leaving nuclear weapons out of the equation, focusing on conventional forces alone for an invasion of Taiwan.

Both sides face one major problem: they don't have either the manpower or the equipment for a sustained conflict. China's air force production rate, as things stand, is around 100-150 planes a year, nowhere near enough to replace the losses they'd endure for even an invasion of Taiwan, let alone Japan and the United States.

We've got the advantage in numbers and quality, even if that gap has shrunk in recent years. Problem is, our forces are spread out all over the world and it would take months to redeploy in great numbers. Out of 11 carriers for instance, perhaps 6 are active at any given time.

As I write this, Taiwan alone has 600 aircraft, half of which are fighters. China has more than 2,000 combat aircraft, but not all of them are modernized. They have only a couple dozen stealth aircraft and many of their aircraft are Chengdu J-7s and Xian HK-7s, decades ago. Certainly China would be able to achieve air superiority over Taiwan, but taking into account losses from enemy aircraft, SAM systems, and mechanical failure, you'd be talking a couple hundred planes lost even in an optimistic scenario.

But it's unlikely China would be fighting Taiwan alone. Nor can they focus all their strength in the Pacific, facing possible incursions from India, South Korea, and even Russia. Japan's air forces, unlike China's, are fully modernized, including 25 F-35 planes. While they haven't made their debut in combat, initial concerns about viability seem to be unfounded.

The combined air forces of South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are a close match for China, taking into account other fronts the CCP has to consider. I don't currently have knowledge on how well-trained the pilots of each side are, but both would be losing planes far quicker than they could be replaced. Gearing up for a wartime economy takes years to do. Inflicting any significant damage to the other's industry through strategic bombing would be out of the question.

China's navy is geared toward fighting in its own backyard and has the advantage of being able to concentrate all its strength in a single location, whereas we're spread all over the planet. The so-called "carrier-killers" have gotten a lot of attention, but there's a difference between hitting a stationary target and a moving ship shielded by several escort ships and its compliment of aircraft. I'd actually consider the big danger to aircraft carriers to be submarines rather than the DF-21 and DF-26.

At least in the short term, China has the strength to push us out of the South China Sea. However, the constant air combat with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would bleed their forces dry, likely leaving all combatants with a shattered air force. Nobody would be able to keep up with losses without fully transitioning to a war economy.

And we'd still have other ways of hurting them, using B-2s to bomb their naval bases and air fields. Even with 20, they'd inflict considerable damage China could ill afford given its previous losses. Perhaps the biggest blow we could deliver to them is blockading the Strait of Malacca, where most of their oil imports came from. It's easy to overlook that China's more dependent on oil imports than we are, and Russian supplies wouldn't be able to fill the demand. They can defend the immediate surroundings from our navy, but their ability to break the blockade is limited to nonexistent.

Our military as a percentage of our population is half of what it was during Desert Storm. China's got a larger army, but it's still got to transport and supply millions of people. So I think it quite possible we could end up with our own version of a "Phony War" once we've burned through our initial equipment until our economy gears up for war. China would have to have a good head start, which is possible, given the likely reluctance of the American public to fight a major conflict.

Military satellites on all sides would be destroyed, severely impacting our communications. This is the kind of war no one has any experience in, given a major war hasn't been fought since 1945. Questions about how vulnerable aircraft carriers are, how trained pilots and naval personnel happen to be, likely won't be answered until fighting breaks out. Wokeness has damaged our armed forces, but we've still got experience fighting in real combat, something China doesn't possess.

El Cid M

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by El Cid M »

Seems like good analysis to me. thank you for attempting it. Now let's see what the Colonel (Navigator) and John think of it.

FullMoon
Posts: 771
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by FullMoon »

El Cid M wrote:
Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:56 am
Seems like good analysis to me. thank you for attempting it. Now let's see what the Colonel (Navigator) and John think of it.
Good stuff. Don't forget Seraphim, if he ever looks at this section.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by Cool Breeze »

Yes, very good information and guesses from Trevor.

Navigator
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Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by Navigator »

Trevor,

You are supposing that the Biden administration will actually fight over Taiwan. At this point, no matter what they are saying, I would actually doubt it. My guess is that Biden will move the carriers out of the area once the Chinese start shooting. I see Biden as a "no war at any cost" kind of guy.

The Chinese may overstep and do things that force a war, but I think that Biden Administration will actually do incredibly stupid things at the start of any war, and will give all kinds of advantages to the Chinese.

Remember how at Pearl Harbor the Army general insisted on having all of the planes out in the open in packed groups on the runways? I can foresee a lot of this kind of stuff going on at the start of a war. The bad guys are going to get in all kinds of good shots at the beginning (thanks to our unpreparedness and even our pulling back to try and "prevent" war from happening) that will greatly reduce our ability to defend ourselves and our allies.

FullMoon
Posts: 771
Joined: Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:55 pm

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by FullMoon »

Regarding Biden, I might be a bit cynical but he could be somewhat compromised by his Chinese business dealings and unable to do anything even if he wanted to. But his party is pretty far removed from reality, so you're assessment looks accurate. Sadly

Guest

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by Guest »

FullMoon wrote:
Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:10 am
Regarding Biden, I might be a bit cynical but he could be somewhat compromised by his Chinese business dealings and unable to do anything even if he wanted to. But his party is pretty far removed from reality, so you're assessment looks accurate. Sadly
Biden might have forgotten that he has been compromised by the Chinese; or what he had for breakfast this morning.

Navigator
Posts: 901
Joined: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:15 pm

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by Navigator »

Its not just Biden. Its his entire administration. Full of leftist woke crowd who do not know what they are dealing with internationally.

They will make as big or bigger mistakes than the Chamberlian administration of UK in the late 1930s.

The Biden press conference, in which he basically told Putin to go ahead and "do something", is just par for the course.

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by Trevor »

I'm not sure how strong the Russian military really is. During the Cold War, a lot of their strength existed only on paper, with many of their tanks and aircraft either junk or poorly maintained. Russia lost more soldiers fighting in Chechnya than we did in Iraq and Afghanistan, over a shorter period of time. This is a tiny province of a million people, covering around 6,700 square miles.

Ukraine's far bigger and more populated. I do think Putin would win in the initial fight, able to at least push to the Dnieper river within a few weeks, but then he's got to hold the territory. Taking all of Ukraine would still come at a significant cost, with years of insurgents on a much greater scale than Chechnya. Now I think he could do it, but it would be a costly affair, in money and lives.

Taiwan's even harder to invade, even without any form of foreign support. My previous post was a wargame with American and Japanese participation, but while Taiwan is much more in our interest to defend, most have no interest in doing so, regardless of political party. China would still lose a fair amount of their planes, either to enemy aircraft, SAM systems, or just mechanical failure. An amphibious invasion would be extremely costly, given Formosa is an easily defensible island.

Most likely, we wouldn't want to get involved, but it would be a sign that the world's gotten a lot more dangerous. Would China gamble that we won't do anything or operate on the assumption we will and strike first?

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Wargaming a conflict

Post by Cool Breeze »

Navigator wrote:
Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:34 am
Its not just Biden. Its his entire administration. Full of leftist woke crowd who do not know what they are dealing with internationally.

They will make as big or bigger mistakes than the Chamberlian administration of UK in the late 1930s.

The Biden press conference, in which he basically told Putin to go ahead and "do something", is just par for the course.
Do you think there is a chance for an American military coup in the next 10-20 years? Or are they purging most from the ranks currently capable to pull this off?

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