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Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Sun Feb 20, 2022 11:22 am
by Tom Mazanec
John wrote: ↑Sat Feb 19, 2022 3:04 pm
Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑Sat Feb 19, 2022 1:09 pm
> there is no firm limit to how long you can run along the edge of a
> cliff before you fall in.
That's cute. I'm gonna steal that.
That standard is for things like "The US is making its military a woke institution which is not going to be able to fight China so that China will take advantage of our weakness to take Taiwan" may happen in 2022, 2023, 2025, 2029...
The earlier standard is for things like "The 4T began on 9-11 and there is always a Crisis War finishing up a Turning" where it is getting near the normal time span of a Turning already, so I would be dubious now of that particular interpretation.
Now, if you think the 4T began with the GFC in 2008 that is different, of course. Or you could say it started with the pandemic, but then you would have to explain why the 3T lasted so long.
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Sun Feb 20, 2022 12:03 pm
by John
** 20-Feb-2022 World View: Fourth Turning vs Regeneracy
Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 11:22 am
> That standard is for things like "The US is making its military a
> woke institution which is not going to be able to fight China so
> that China will take advantage of our weakness to take Taiwan" may
> happen in 2022, 2023, 2025, 2029...
> The earlier standard is for things like "The 4T began on 9-11 and
> there is always a Crisis War finishing up a Turning" where it is
> getting near the normal time span of a Turning already, so I would
> be dubious now of that particular interpretation.
> Now, if you think the 4T began with the GFC in 2008 that is
> different, of course. Or you could say it started with the
> pandemic, but then you would have to explain why the 3T lasted so
> long.
The events that you've listed are relevant to the Regeneracy, not to
the Fourth Turning.
The Fourth Turning (Crisis Era) begins exactly 58 years after the
climax of the preceding crisis war. This is not event-driven. It's
purely based on generational changes. I arrived at the number 58
based on many historical examples.
By contrast, the Regeneracy is an event or series of events, and can
occur at any time.
Here's a table that I've posted before, based on a crisis war climax
year YYYY:
> Eras:
> YYYY+00 to YYYY+18: Recovery era
> YYYY+19 to YYYY+38: Awakening era
> YYYY+39 to YYYY+58: Unraveling era
> YYYY+59 to YYYY+78: Crisis era
> YYYY+79 ..........: Fifth Turning
> Birth years of generations:
> YYYY-04 to YYYY+14: Prophets
> YYYY+15 to YYYY+34: Nomads
> YYYY+35 to YYYY+54: Heroes
> YYYY+55 to YYYY+74: Artists
So the latest Fourth Turning began in 1945+58 = 2003.
For China, it began in 1949+58 = 2007.
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:00 am
by Tom Mazanec
If the Regeneracy does not occur within 20 years of the 4T start (2023 by you) that is one thing. 25 years? OK. 30? 40? At some point the prediction fails.
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:17 pm
by FullMoon
Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:00 am
If the Regeneracy does not occur within 20 years of the 4T start (2023 by you) that is one thing. 25 years? OK. 30? 40? At some point the prediction fails.
I'd be perfectly happy with a failed prediction.
When we see peace and prosperity again we will rejoice. It will occur again, but after tribulations have passed. Has society learned how to achieve this without passing through the barrier of death and destruction?
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:47 pm
by Cool Breeze
FullMoon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:17 pm
Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:00 am
If the Regeneracy does not occur within 20 years of the 4T start (2023 by you) that is one thing. 25 years? OK. 30? 40? At some point the prediction fails.
I'd be perfectly happy with a failed prediction.
When we see peace and prosperity again we will rejoice. It will occur again, but after tribulations have passed. Has society learned how to achieve this without passing through the barrier of death and destruction?
No, but in this era the goalposts have changed - never have this many people lived this long and with promises of their "retirement life". So in so many ways, since people aren't honest about the changing perception or goalposts - this time is different.
Example: if shit tons of 70+ people die that isn't "death and destruction" unless the government directly murders them. The current government is indifferent about the life of its citizens of 60+ because they owe them so much in promises. And there is no way to pay it. What's funnier is that John and many others (many of us didn't fall for this) didn't pick up on the jabs as being a dose response murder curve.
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:05 pm
by Tom Mazanec
February 23, 2022
No, Nope, No: It Is Not Time for a Civil War
By Jeremy Egerer
https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... l_war.html
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:11 pm
by Cool Breeze
Make a dent into the culture, Mr. Egerer? Follow Christ.
Don't act, sing, blah blah blah
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:19 am
by Guest No 3
Guest wrote: ↑Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:44 am
The Day It Went Down
I can’t forget the day it really happened here. For about a month we were warned that a nuclear attack and cyberattacks were imminent. I’m not sure most people took it seriously. I didn’t; I thought it was too surreal to be real. And I felt fairly safe knowing that the military had been recalled from almost everywhere to home. When I woke up that morning, I tried to log on the internet for my daily work updates. Nothing. I turned on the TV. My usual stations weren’t there. An emergency national broadcast was blaring on every channel. The internet, TV and phone service has been sabotaged, disrupted and hacked.
We are under a massive cyberattack. Martial Law has been declared. Everything is to shut down and we are to stay home (or wherever we are) and not go out. We should not panic, they are working on it and expect to have it all up and running “soon.” The National Guard has been called to every city and will direct us on proceeding from here. Expect power outages.
Of course, everyone panicked! But the National Guard was already everywhere. Martial Law means they can shoot to kill and by that afternoon we were seeing warnings not to disobey their orders and real life live images of dead bodies of those who tried. That convinced me for sure! I was terrified for my family and friends and of nuclear bombs. I locked up, boarded up, blocked up every crack in my house. I created a small area in the backyard for my dogs to go potty and thanked my lucky stars that I had just bought cat litter. I felt grateful that the grid had not gone down and the plumbing still worked. I wondered how long this would last because I really didn’t have a lot of food. I wished I lived with someone whom I could talk to. The mundane emergency national broadcaster was at least a voice to listen to other than my own. That’s when I thought about radio. I tried it. Yes!!! I can spend the evening listening to voices and music! Wait…what are they saying?
Homes are being invaded and resisters are being rounded up. Many are being shot as they run. Whole families are being gunned down. Families? WTF? Then I heard the radio station get attacked, gunfire, and dead air. I tuned in another station. They were announcing that the despicable politicians and their followers were getting their due. That’s when I realized it wasn’t a foreign power doing this. It was us.
And Butler was last scene begging on his knees saying, "But wait! I'm one of you!"
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:12 pm
by Another guest
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:47 pm
FullMoon wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:17 pm
Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:00 am
If the Regeneracy does not occur within 20 years of the 4T start (2023 by you) that is one thing. 25 years? OK. 30? 40? At some point the prediction fails.
I'd be perfectly happy with a failed prediction.
When we see peace and prosperity again we will rejoice. It will occur again, but after tribulations have passed. Has society learned how to achieve this without passing through the barrier of death and destruction?
No, but in this era the goalposts have changed - never have this many people lived this long and with promises of their "retirement life". So in so many ways, since people aren't honest about the changing perception or goalposts - this time is different.
Example: if shit tons of 70+ people die that isn't "death and destruction" unless the government directly murders them. The current government is indifferent about the life of its citizens of 60+ because they owe them so much in promises. And there is no way to pay it. What's funnier is that John and many others (many of us didn't fall for this) didn't pick up on the jabs as being a dose response murder curve.
Well, it took Europe a thousand years to emerge from the dark ages. So, people don't always wise up in time to save themselves. It's already too late to save Mexifornia; no matter what Peter Zeihan is peddling.
Re: U.S. Civil War
Posted: Thu Mar 09, 2023 11:18 pm
by Cool Breeze
Europe wasn't in the Dark Ages, that's more propaganda - mostly because the west has always been on a different path that hates orthodox christianity, or at least, opposes it. If you don't know what I'm talking about, you both don't know history and are propagandized to the max.
Which was the plan, always.