** 10-Feb-2021 World View: I don't know when -- but trust the Voice of Reason
Cool Breeze wrote: ↑Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:11 pm
> Now you're realizing why I am generally the voice of reason around
> here, even though I accept all probabilities (unlike most of the
> rest).
> Notice how funny it is that if war doesn't come, "it's coming,
> it's a guarantee I just don't know when" is the same as "Bitcoin
> will go to zero, I just don't know when - but trust me"
Ah yes, the Voice of Reason. It's so nice to have you here, since we
know that you would never fall into logical traps like the rest of us
do. After all, you're the voice of reason, so you can do so much
better than the rest of us at being reasonable.
So let's turn this around, and look at some of your own core beliefs,
namely your devout Christian religious beliefs.
Let's start with the simplest one -- the prediction about Jesus'
Second Coming. We know from the Bible that Jesus expected to return
soon, at least within the lives of his apostles. So he was wrong
about that. So why should we believe he's ever coming back? In my
mind, I can hear you say, "He's coming -- it's a guarantee, I just
don't know wen -- but trust me!"
Well that's not very convincing. I've been aware in my life of two or
three groups predicting the Second Coming on a specified date. That
was the stuff of Leon Festinger's research on cognitive dissonance.
By the way, do you belong to a group that has set a date for the
Second Coming? If you have, then please let us know, so we can mock
you when the date passes.
A good choice for you would be 2032, which would be 2000 years after
the crucifixion, so highly symbolic. And it would have the additional
advantage of being in the same time frame as AOC's prediction of the
end of life on earth because of climate change, so you and she can go
wait on a mountaintop together.
Or are you saying that you guarantee he's coming, but you don't know
when, but he's coming, so trust you? Well, let's keep score. Jesus
was wrong about the date. Then it didn't occur in the 1st millennium
AD. It didn't occur in the 2nd millennium AD. And now we're in the
3rd millennium, with no Second Coming in sight. So it might not
happen until the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th or 8th millennium. So why even
worry about it? Let the computer overlords worry about it then.
That's what the Voice Of Reason would say.
So now let's take a more prosaic example -- death. We're all going to
die, though we usually don't know when, so perhaps it's best not to
worry about it.
I'm sure that you would say that even though you don't know when
you're going to die, it's important to live a good, holy life. But
why?
We know the phrase attributed to St. Augustine -- Please God, make me
chaste, but not just yet. So that's the philosophy that you can enjoy
wine, women and song as long as you want, but then when you think
you're about to die, you ask for forgiveness.
The ability to obtain forgiveness, even on your deathbed, for all past
sins is an essential part of any popular theology, because it's an
essential argument for getting people to convert to the religion and
put money in the collection bowl. If someone had committed so many
sins that he couldn't be forgiven, then why even bother to join the
religion? He's only going to join if he's going to be forgiven.
So, following your logic, someone could say, "I'm going to die -- it's
a guarantee, I just don't know when -- but trust me!" That person
could apply the St. Augustine Rule and enjoy wine, women and song
until just before death, and then ask for foregiveness on the
deathbed.
However, that's a bit of a roll of the dice. What if you get struck
by lightning, and don't have time to ask for foregiveness? That would
really suck.
The solution then is to commit suicide. The Bible does not forbid
suicide, but the Catholic religion does and makes it a Mortal Sin
(same as using a contraceptive), and other religions do so as well.
However, committing suicide has many advantages. You know your time
of death and you can control it, which is a good thing, so you can ask
for foregiveness.
That leaves only one unsolved problem -- if you ask for forgiveness
and then commit suicide, then you still have one unforgiven sin, the
suicide itself, at least in the Catholic religion and other religions
that make suicide a sin. I've actually provided a solution to this
dilemma last year in another thread. You do the following: Go up to
the roof of a 20 story building, and dive off the roof. On your way
down, pray to God and ask for forgiveness. By the time you go splat,
you'll die free from sin.
So you see, Mr. Voice of Reason Breeze, your beliefs suffer from the
precise lapses in logic and reason that you accuse in others.
Let's contrast the prediction of the Second Coming to the GD
prediction of WW III. Jesus was wrong about the date, and many
millenarianists have also been wrong, for 2,000 years. There is no
historical record on which to base a prediction for the Second Coming.
It may never happen, and by your logic, it won't.
But for WW III, there's an enormous amount of historical evidence. As
I've pointed out many times, in the last century there were two world
wars and numerous huge wars on every continent. In fact, in every
century for millennia, there have been huge wars in every region in
every country in every continent. So based on the historical record,
we can predict with certainty that there will be WW III, and by making
comparisons to the last century, we can arrive at reasonable estimates
as to when it will occur.